原油分析:下跌趋势形成, 聚焦OPEC 会议
Crude Oil Analysis: downward trend has formed. Eyes on OPEC meeting

原油分析:下跌趋势形成, 聚焦OPEC 会议
Crude Oil Analysis: downward trend has formed. Eyes on OPEC meeting

原油价格显示出显著下跌,受到各种市场因素和技术指标的影响。价格从77.86水平开始显著下跌,预示着熊市趋势的延续。这一下跌趋势的即时目标设定在75.50和73.73。随机指标提供了明确的负面信号,强化了在明确的熊市通道内的看跌展望。关键水平为77.86;保持在这一水平以下对于当前趋势的延续至关重要。

在更广泛的市场前景中,原油价格在周五上涨了约2%,得益于伊拉克对OPEC+减产的支持和交易者的短线回补。尽管如此,原油记录了4%的周跌幅,标志着连续第三周的下跌。这次反弹部分是由交易者解决创纪录的空头头寸驱动的,并得到了沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯关于持续减产的确认。美国钻井数量的减少也暗示了未来产量的减少。

从技术上看,WTI测试了77.31美元的关键支点,即时阻力位于77.43美元,进一步的上限位于79.02美元和81.22美元。支撑水平标记在75.35美元,额外的安全网位于73.97美元和72.61美元。RSI指数为48.15,表明市场既不超买也不超卖,但倾向于看跌情绪。50天EMA位于79.02美元,高于当前价格,暗示短期内可能的看跌趋势。

Crude oil prices have shown a notable decline, influenced by various market factors and technical indicators. The price began the day with significant negativity, moving away from the 77.86 level, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. The immediate targets for this downtrend are set at 75.50 and 73.73. Stochastic indicators provide clear negative signals, reinforcing the bearish outlook within a well-defined bearish channel. The key level to watch is 77.86; staying below this level is crucial for the continuation of the current trend.

On the broader market front, oil prices climbed around 2% on Friday, buoyed by Iraq’s support for OPEC+ production cuts and short-covering by traders. Despite this, oil recorded a 4% weekly loss, marking the third consecutive week of declines. The rally was partly driven by traders addressing record short positions and was supported by confirmations from Saudi Arabia and Russia on continued output cuts. U.S. rig count reductions also hinted at future output decreases.

Technically, the WTI tests a key pivot at $77.31, with immediate resistance at $77.43 and further ceilings at $79.02 and $81.22. Support levels are marked at $75.35, with additional safety nets at $73.97 and $72.61. The RSI stands at 48.15, indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, yet leaning towards bearish sentiment. The 50-day EMA at $79.02 is above the current price, signalling a potential bearish trend in the short term.

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