以太坊/美元分析：BlackRock消息推动以太坊飙升，技术优势显著 ETH/USD Analysis: BlackRock News Fuels Ethereum's Surge Amid Technical Strengths
Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown a bullish trend, primarily driven by news of BlackRock’s application for an Ethereum-based ETF. This development has significantly influenced ETH’s price, leading to a notable increase. The ETH/USD pair has been trading near the year’s high, approaching the critical resistance level at $2,150, within a large ascending triangle pattern. This suggests a potential breakout if it surpasses this level, indicating a strong bullish momentum.
Technical analysis reveals that Ethereum is experiencing a surge in buying interest, with the price nearing its annual peak of $2,140 set in April. However, the market shows signs of being overbought, as indicated by the RSI, hinting at a possible pullback. The resistance block near this high includes the upper limit of a parallel downward channel and the year’s high resistance, making this zone crucial for future price movements.
美元/日元分析：中央银行政策和技术水平指导日元走势 USD/JPY Analysis: Central Bank Policies And Technical Levels Guide Yen's Course
The USD/JPY currency pair has witnessed fluctuations, largely steered by central bank policies and technical levels. The Bank of Japan’s commitment to maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, providing a backdrop for the pair’s movements. Despite a recent pullback, the pair trades near a one-week high, just shy of the 151.00 level.
Technically, the USD/JPY maintains a bullish bias, trading above key moving averages. The pair’s resilience above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and positive oscillator readings suggest the potential for further gains. Resistance is currently eyed at the year-to-date high of 151.70, while support is found near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the 150.00 psychological barrier.
英镑/美元分析：在中央银行叙事和美元强势中挣扎的英镑 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling's Struggle Amidst Central Bank Narratives And Dollar Strength
The GBP/USD pair has been navigating through a period of consolidation, with the sterling struggling below the 1.2300 mark against a backdrop of a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to bolster the dollar, overshadowing the Bank of England’s recent decision to hold interest rates. Despite the pound’s attempts to regain ground, the technical indicators suggest a bearish bias, with the currency pair trading below key moving averages.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD faces immediate resistance at the 1.2300 level, with a breach above potentially challenging the next resistance at 1.2350. Conversely, the pair finds initial support at 1.2250, with a break below this point possibly setting the stage for further declines towards 1.2200. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the mid-line, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.
石油价格分析：市场动态和技术指标塑造原油走向 Oil Price Analysis: Market Dynamics And Technical Indicators Shape Crude's Course
The oil market has been subject to significant fluctuations, with central bank policies and technical indicators playing pivotal roles. OPEC’s recent reaffirmation of supply cuts has provided a floor for prices, with Brent crude hovering near the resistance level of $87.24. The U.S. crude oil is pressing on the support around $81 a barrel, as traders speculate on the market’s direction amid geopolitical shifts. The technical outlook is cautiously optimistic, with prices trading above key moving averages, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the market is nearing overbought conditions, signaling potential pullbacks.
From a technical perspective, Brent oil’s immediate resistance is at the mentioned $87.24, with a break above potentially leading to further gains. For WTI, the pivot to watch is $82.75, with support at the $81 level. The market’s sentiment is tempered by inventory levels and OPEC production, with any significant changes likely to drive the next major move in prices.
黄金分析：中央银行立场和技术图形塑造黄金新路径 XAU/USD, Gold Analysis: Central Bank Stances And Technical Patterns Shape Gold's Path
The XAU/USD, or gold market, has been navigating through a complex landscape shaped by central bank policies and technical formations. The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish stance, coupled with a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, has led to a softening of the US dollar, providing a supportive backdrop for gold prices. Despite this, gold remains below the key psychological level of $2000, as it consolidates gains and tests the resolve of bulls and bears alike.
Technically, gold is currently exhibiting signs of an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential breakout if it can maintain support above the critical $1977 threshold. The market’s eyes are now on the US bond yields and geopolitical developments, which could act as catalysts for the next significant move in gold prices.
英镑/美元分析：中央银行决策和技术指标驱动英镑的走势 GBP/USD Analysis: Central Bank Decisions And Technical Indicators Drive Sterling's Movements
The GBP/USD currency pair has been experiencing notable shifts, primarily influenced by central bank decisions and technical indicators. The Bank of England (BoE) recently opted to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the potential for a future rate hike but dismissed the idea of rate cuts. This decision has kept the British pound in a positive stance for two consecutive days.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is currently trading above both the 50-hour and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further supports this bullish outlook, remaining above the 50 mark. Immediate resistance for the pair is identified at 1.2217, with potential to rally towards 1.2288. On the flip side, initial support is seen at the 100-hour EMA level of 1.2170.
CL油分析：市场动态和地缘政治紧张局势塑造油价走势 CL Oil Analysis: Market Dynamics And Geopolitical Tensions Shape Oil's Trajectory
The oil market is currently experiencing a blend of technical and fundamental factors that are shaping its trajectory. On the fundamental side, global conflicts, especially those related to resources, have heightened market volatility. The Europe-Russia energy dependency, the escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the potential for a direct Iran-Israel conflict are all influencing oil prices. The US is actively trying to deter a broader conflict in the Middle East, and any sudden geopolitical event could significantly impact the market.
From a technical perspective, WTI Crude Oil has seen a rise, currently priced at $82.60, with a pivot point at $85.13. The short-term trend suggests bearishness below $87.85. Natural Gas, on the other hand, leans bullish above the pivot point of $3.44. Brent oil is trading at $86.62, with a bearish outlook below $87.85.
黄金与$2,000US比拼：地缘政治与市场动态的微妙平衡 Gold's Dance With $2,000: A Delicate Balance Of Geopolitics And Market Dynamics
Gold recently surpassed the significant $2,000 mark, with eyes set on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Despite the 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest since 2007, gold remains resilient. The U.S. Dollar’s strength, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has bolstered both the greenback and gold. Historically, gold has been sensitive to geopolitical shifts, and any sudden changes could impact its price trajectory. Technical indicators, like the recent hammer-shaped candlestick pattern, suggest potential market shifts. With bond yields playing a pivotal role in gold’s price movement, the market remains in a state of flux, awaiting clear directional cues.
EUR/USD分析：欧元面临上涨阻力，等待确认 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro's Rally Faces Resistance, Awaiting Confirmation
在最近的上涨之后，EUR/USD货币对目前面临阻力，这引发了对其上行轨迹可持续性的疑问。本周早些时候，欧元经历了一个短暂的牛市，但随后的回调对看涨趋势的持续性产生了怀疑。货币对在上周成功突破了下降趋势通道的上界，达到1.0695的高点。然而，出现的看跌吞没蜡烛图模式暗示了潜在的看跌势头。这种模式，加上价格回到21天简单移动平均线（SMA）的布林带内，暗示了可能的趋势反转。在技术上，EUR/USD的即时支持位于1.0480 – 1.0495范围内，进一步的支持在2022年12月和2023年10月的低点附近，约为1.0445。相反，可能会在最近的1.0700峰值附近遇到阻力，随后的障碍位于1.0740、1.0770、1.0835和1.0945。
The EUR/USD pair, after a recent surge, is currently facing resistance, raising questions about the sustainability of its upward trajectory. Earlier this week, the Euro bulls experienced a momentary victory, but a subsequent pullback has cast doubts over the continuation of the bullish trend. The currency pair managed to break through the descending trend channel’s upper boundary last week, reaching a high at 1.0695. However, the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick pattern suggests potential bearish momentum. This pattern, combined with the price’s movement back inside the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band, hints at a possible trend reversal. On the technical front, immediate support for the EUR/USD lies near the 1.0480 – 1.0495 range, with further support around the December 2022 and October 2023 lows near 1.0445. Conversely, resistance might be encountered near the recent peak of 1.0700, with subsequent barriers at 1.0740, 1.0770, 1.0835, and 1.0945.
USD/JPY分析：日元的回撤推动对超过150，日本央行的立场备受关注 USD/JPY Analysis: Yen's Retreat Pushes Pair Beyond 150, BoJ's Stance In Focus
The USD/JPY currency pair has surged to a fresh 12-month high, crossing the 150.30 threshold, as the Japanese Yen weakens further against the backdrop of global market dynamics. This significant move comes as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) consistently defends the 150.00 level, a historical benchmark that has been staunchly protected by the central bank in previous instances. The US Dollar’s strength is being fueled by a combination of widespread market risk aversion and the continuous climb of US Treasury yields, which have now reached levels not seen since the early days of 2007. Despite the BoJ’s reluctance to raise interest rates in the past two years, Wall Street is anticipating a potential shift in the bank’s strategies, possibly even an abandonment of their yield curve control mechanism. As the week progresses, market participants will be closely monitoring Japan’s inflation data, particularly the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), to gauge any potential policy adjustments by the BoJ in response to domestic inflation trends.
黄金分析：经济不确定性加，关注$1,980的阻力位 Gold Analysis: Navigating Economic Uncertainties, Eyes On $1,980 Resistance
Gold’s price trajectory has been notably bullish, with the precious metal nearing the significant $2,000/ounce threshold after achieving five-month highs last week. This surge is attributed to mounting concerns over prolonged high interest rates potentially hampering global economic growth. The yellow metal’s appeal has been further amplified as U.S. Treasury yields reached levels unseen in over a decade, with the 10-year T-note hitting 4.9% the previous week.
However, the start of this week saw a slight pullback in gold prices. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has reduced market risk aversion. This shift in sentiment has rejuvenated risk appetite, leading to a rise in risk assets and a corresponding dip in safe havens like gold and the U.S. Dollar.
Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, especially growth and inflation figures, to gauge the Federal Reserve’s potential rate decisions. Current market expectations lean towards the Fed maintaining interest rates, but any deviation in the anticipated inflation trajectory could compel the central bank to sustain elevated rates longer than previously thought.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a strong bullish stance. Despite the recent dip, XAU/USD has risen over 10% since early October, starting from lows around $1,810. The precious metal is now challenging the $1,980 resistance level, which previously halted its upward momentum in July.
BTC/USD分析：比特币的历史性测试和市场韧性 BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin's Historic Test And Market Resilience
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently undergone a significant test, approaching the $30,965 mark, a move that many analysts are calling historic. This comes as the broader financial market faces turbulence, with the S&P 500 plunging to a 4-month low. Despite the broader market’s downturn, Bitcoin’s resilience is evident as it continues to hold its ground. The cryptocurrency’s current behavior suggests that it might be reclaiming its status as a safe-haven asset. On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price action is nearing a crucial juncture. While it has shown signs of potential upward momentum, the $31,000 level is emerging as a significant resistance point. A successful breach of this level could pave the way for further gains, while failure might lead to a consolidation phase or potential pullback.
EUR/USD分析：等待欧洲中央银行的决定，关键阻力位于1.0600 EUR/USD Analysis: Awaiting ECB's Decision, Key Resistance At 1.0600
The EUR/USD pair has been trading cautiously, remaining below the 1.0600 mark as market participants keenly await the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision scheduled for Thursday. Although no rate change is anticipated, the markets are speculating that the ECB’s rate hiking cycle has concluded. However, easing measures to combat elevated inflation might not commence until at least July 2024. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0577, reflecting a 0.15% decline for the day. On the technical front, the EUR/USD is exhibiting a range-bound movement. While it remains above the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the long-term average surpasses the short-term, hinting at a potential upward trajectory. The 1.0600-1.0610 region stands as a significant resistance, with several technical indicators converging at this point. If the pair manages to breach this level, it could aim for 1.0635, the high of October 11. On the flip side, immediate support is found near the 50-hour EMA at 1.0566.
XAU/USD分析：黄金的涨势面临十字路口，战争担忧推动势头 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Rally Faces A Crossroad, War Concerns Drive Momentum
Gold’s price has experienced a notable surge recently, driven predominantly by escalating concerns related to potential war scenarios. The precious metal’s movement seems to be echoing patterns observed during the Russian invasion in 2022. Specifically, gold’s price tends to rally based on increasing fear and uncertainty, even if these sentiments aren’t directly tied to actual events. Current data suggests that the interest in war-related news is showing signs of decline, similar to patterns observed in early 2022. Historically, gold’s price continued to rise for a few days after such a decline in interest before reaching a peak. If this pattern holds, gold could approach the $2,000 mark before experiencing a downturn, presenting a potential shorting opportunity. Interestingly, gold’s rise has occurred concurrently with an uptick in the U.S. dollar, another safe-haven asset. This simultaneous increase is likely due to heightened concerns about the Middle East. While gold’s outlook remains bullish in the short term, a shift is anticipated in the near future.
EUR/USD面临压力：欧元整固, 美国国债收益率上涨和市场波动的挑战 EUR/USD Faces Pressure: Euro's Consolidation Challenged By U.S. Treasury Yields Surge And Market Fluctuations
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing downward pressure, primarily influenced by the rising U.S. Treasury yields. While the Euro has been consolidating, it’s being tested by the bullish momentum of the U.S. dollar. The pair is currently vulnerable below the mid-1.0500s, with the 1.0525 level acting as a potential support. The Euro’s progression is further hindered by resistance. Market participants are closely watching the U.S. economic indicators and the Eurozone’s economic health to gauge the pair’s next move.
XAU/USD (Gold) 分析：中东紧张局势下, 黄金展示其韧性 XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis: Gold Shows Resilience Riding With Middle East Tensions
Gold has experienced a notable rally, with its price surging due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The geopolitical uncertainties have cast a shadow over the optimism of the forthcoming earnings season, leading to a risk-averse sentiment in the market. Gold’s ascent, marking over a 3.5% increase, has been its most significant in seven months, reinforcing its stature as a safe-haven asset. This rise is further buoyed by the waning expectations of an additional Federal Reserve rate hike this year. On the technical front, Gold has surpassed the 1900 barrier and exited the bearish channel, suggesting a potential trajectory towards the 1950 mark. Nonetheless, the ongoing Middle East conflict remains a pivotal factor in its direction. Investors are urged to keep a close watch on global events and economic indicators, as they could offer crucial insights into Gold’s impending movement.
USD/JPY分析：美国消费者情绪和CPI预期, 交易員對日元立场谨慎 USD/JPY Analysis: Yen's Cautious Stance, Focus On US Consumer Sentiment And CPI Forecasts
The USD/JPY currency pair remains cautious, trading below the 150.00 mark as market participants turn their focus towards the upcoming US consumer sentiment data. The yen’s wary stance is further accentuated by anticipations surrounding the US CPI forecasts, which could potentially influence the pair’s direction. On a technical front, the USD/JPY has recently completed a positive pattern, suggesting a potential upward momentum. However, the 150.00 level stands as a significant psychological barrier, and its breach or defense will be crucial in determining the next phase for the currency pair. Investors are advised to monitor the US economic indicators closely, as they could provide pivotal cues for the yen’s movement against the dollar.
GBP/USD分析：英镑面临关键阻力，死亡交叉迫在眉睫 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Faces Crucial Resistance Amid Looming Death Cross
The GBP/USD pair has been oscillating around the 1.2310 mark, with the looming formation of a “death cross” casting a shadow over its future trajectory. This technical pattern, which arises when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, often signals a potential bearish trend for the asset. For the pound sterling to maintain its appeal to buyers, it’s imperative that it clears the 1.2300 resistance level. If it fails to do so, the currency pair could be subjected to further downward pressure. Recent analysis indicates that the GBP/USD has already touched its target, suggesting that the pair might be on the brink of a pivotal movement. Investors and traders are advised to keep a close watch on these technical indicators and the 1.2300 level to gauge the pair’s next direction.
原油分析：地缘政治紧张局势中, 市场稳定受壓 Crude Oil Analysis: Market Stability On The Edge Under Geopolitical Tensions
Crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilization despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict. The recent surge in oil prices, which saw West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surpassing $86 a barrel, was largely influenced by the unexpected attack by Hamas over the weekend. However, Saudi Arabia has stepped in, pledging its commitment to ensuring market stability. The kingdom has expressed its support for OPEC+ efforts to balance the oil markets and emphasized its dedication to initiatives that would foster global economic growth. On the Brent oil front, prices continue to fluctuate, currently operating under the influence of the EMA50, which exerts a negative pressure. The price is anticipated to resume its bearish trend, targeting the 86.74 level. However, a breach of the 90.30 mark could halt this bearish correction, potentially steering the price back to its primary bullish trajectory.
XAU/USD分析：中东局势紧张，黄金展示韧性 XAU/USD Analysis: Middle Eastern Tensions Arise, Gold Shows Resilience
Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, gold prices have witnessed a surge, solidifying its status as a sought-after safe-haven asset. As the U.S. dollar strengthens against major rivals, gold price shows resilience as market’s reaction against the weekend’s events in the Middle East remains scrutiny. Upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including the FOMC minutes and the September CPI, are anticipated to further influence gold’s trajectory. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is currently hovering around the $1,850 mark, with a significant resistance level identified at $1,884.
EUR/USD分析：中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧，美元上涨 EUR/USD Analysis: Rising Middle East Tensions Bolster The US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair began the week with a slight bearish undertone, breaking its recent three-day ascent and settling near the 1.0600 mark, a peak achieved the previous week. The financial landscape appears influenced by the ambiguous U.S. employment statistics from last Friday. Heightened geopolitical uncertainties have enhanced the allure of the U.S. Dollar, exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, speculations regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hesitancy towards imminent rate hikes seem to be impeding the pair’s bullish momentum. Technically, the trajectory since reaching a 17-month high in June aligns with a descending pattern, indicating a sustained bearish trend.
USD/JPY分析：日元干预风险增加，149.60成为关键阻力 USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Intervention Risks Loom, 149.60 Emerges As Key Hurdle
The USD/JPY experienced a brief dip during Thursday’s trading but rebounded, currently trading around the 149.00 mark. Concerns loom over potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX market to defend the domestic currency. The dollar’s corrective slide from an 11-month peak is halted despite expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates. Technically, the USD/JPY showed resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. Further upside for the USD/JPY might confront resistance near the 149.60 area, with a decisive break potentially challenging the 150.00 intervention level.
GBP/USD分析：英镑/美元测试下行通道的阻力，下一步走势如何？ GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Tests The Downtrend Channel's Resistance, What's Next?
The GBP/USD pair has continued its ascent, reaching the resistance of the bearish channel depicted on the chart, and has begun to show signs of further positivity. However, technical indicators still provide negative signals that might cause a bearish rebound. Currently, a neutral stance is preferred until a clearer signal for the next trend is obtained. A breach of 1.2175 will push the price out of the bearish channel, initiating a bullish correction with a primary target at the 1.2295 areas. Conversely, breaking below 1.2125 will resume the main bearish trend with an initial target of 1.2035.
XAU/USD美元的强势与金价的下滑 XAU/USD : The Dominance Of The Dollar And Gold's Descent
The price of XAU/USD remains bearish recently. With the strength of the US dollar and the rise in Treasury bond yields, gold might continue its slide, approaching the psychological support level of $1,800 per ounce. Despite this, many technical indicators have shifted towards strong selling saturation levels, potentially offering gold investors an opportunity for buying. However, the bulls will not regain control over the gold trend without moving towards the resistance level of $1885 per ounce again.
欧元继续承压，1.0500关键支持位是否能守住？ EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Under Persistent Pressure, Can The 1.0500 Key Support Hold?
Recently, the EUR/USD has been under significant downward pressure, primarily influenced by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soaring to its highest level since 2007 at 4.65%. Additionally, a last-minute agreement in Washington to fund the government and avoid a shutdown over the weekend also boosted the dollar. In contrast, the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI further declined, indicating economic sluggishness. Technically, the EUR/USD is nearing the crucial support level at 1.0500. If this support is breached, the next target could be 1.0406, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from September 2022 to July 2023.
USD/JPY分析：美元持续受到上行压力，日元何去何从？ USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Continues To Face Upward Pressure, Where Does The Yen Stand?
Recently, the USD/JPY experienced a minor rally during Wednesday’s trading, driven by consistent upward pressure. In contrast, the yen is on a decline, primarily due to the Bank of Japan’s policies, which has shown no signs of hiking interest rates. Despite some verbal interventions from the Bank of Japan, there have been no significant policy shifts in its recent meetings. Given the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining a tighter policy for an extended period, the US dollar is expected to remain strong. The market is poised to reach, and potentially surpass, the ¥150 level. Short-term retracements are likely to find significant support around the ¥147.80 level. Each upward movement is seen as offering value, making the current market conditions unfavorable for shorting.
黄金价格分析：黄金价格下滑，美元的强势能否持续？ Gold Price Analysis: Gold Slides, Will The Dollar's Strength Persist?
The gold price XAU/USD has failed to breach the resistance at $1945 per ounce, leading to technical selling. The persistent strength of the US dollar has subjected the gold price to selling pressures, pushing it towards the support level of $1895 per ounce. Despite nearing the end of the tightening cycle, dovish sentiments from the Federal Reserve have intensified, causing concerns among investors who were anticipating US interest rate cuts as early as spring 2024. Currently, the gold price has broken the support level of $1900 per ounce, further confirming the bearish grip on the trend and pushing technical indicators towards strong selling saturation levels. Hence, considering the potential halt in the US dollar’s gains, now might be an opportune moment to consider gold purchases.
油价分析：油价势不可挡地, 每桶100美元是否不可逆轉? Oil Price Analysis: Uptrend Continues, Is $100 A Barrel Non-Stoppable?
Oil prices have recently surged past $90 a barrel, driven by the unwavering stance of OPEC+ members and voluntary reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The escalating global demand further intensifies the price hike. However, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, could sway the oil market. The German government’s projection of high natural gas prices until 2027 underscores the urgency of additional measures, especially if the embargo on Russian gas imports persists. In this context, the possibility of oil prices breaking the $100 per barrel threshold remains a focal point of market attention.
EUR/USD分析：欧元连续第11周下跌，技术面看跌 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro On Track For 11th Consecutive Weekly Decline, Technical Points To Bearishness
The EUR/USD pair has been on a consistent downtrend, with a 0.5% decline on Monday, marking its 11th consecutive weekly loss, equating to the longest losing streak recorded back in 1997. Retail traders continue to ramp up their bullish positions, which might serve as a contrarian bearish signal. Technically, the EUR/USD has breached the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 1.0631, targeting the March low at 1.0516. If the pair continues its descent and breaks this low, it could further plummet to 1.0436. Meanwhile, the descending trendline from July continues to steer the currency pair downwards.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格面临不确定性，短期展混乱讯号 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Faces High Uncertainty, Mixed Outlook In The Short Term
近日，黄金价格在1934的阻力位附近受到打压，主要是由于FOMC Dot Plot的鹰派立场。市场对于美联储的利率决策仍存在很大的不确定性。尽管美联储希望实现软着陆，但强劲的经济和劳动力市场可能迫使其采取更为激进的措施。这种不确定性导致黄金价格在近期内呈现区间震荡态势。从技术分析的角度看，黄金价格在每日图表上呈现区间交易模式，而4小时图表显示价格在1934的阻力位附近出现了明显的回撤。如果价格继续保持在1920以上，可能会有进一步的上行空间。
Gold prices recently faced resistance around the 1934 mark, primarily due to the more hawkish stance from the FOMC Dot Plot. There’s significant uncertainty in the market regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. While the Fed aims for a soft landing, the robust economy and labor market might compel it to take more aggressive actions. This uncertainty has led to a rangebound price movement for gold in recent times. Technically, gold is exhibiting rangebound trading on the daily charts, and the 4-hour chart indicates a noticeable pullback from the 1934 resistance level. If the price continues to maintain levels above $1,920, there’s potential for further upside.
EUR/USD分析：欧元面临下行压力 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Faces Downward Pressure
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling near six-month lows below 1.0650. Despite some positive economic data from the Eurozone, the strength of the US dollar continues to curb the rise of the Euro. Technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD is pushing off from its support levels. The pair is currently below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bearish trend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 1.0665 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.0505. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud with the price stabilizing above 1.0725 would indicate further growth to 1.0815.
USD/JPY分析：美元/日元等待美联储与日本央行的决策 USD/JPY Analysis: Awaiting Decisions From The Fed And BOJ
The USD/JPY trading has been relatively muted recently, with Japan observing a temporary holiday. The market is keenly anticipating the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting set for Wednesday, expected to bring much-awaited volatility in the coming days. The market’s attention remains on the crucial ¥147.80 level, acting as a significant barrier. A potential break above this pivotal level could pave the way for a move towards the psychologically significant ¥150 mark. Overall, the market has favored buying on dips, though such opportunities have been scarce lately. Given the BOJ’s unlikely stance to make significant policy shifts, the market will likely seize the chance to buy US dollars at more favorable rates in the future.
GBP/USD分析：英镑面临美元的压力，市场期待英格兰银行的决策 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Faces Dollar Pressure Awaiting BoE Decision
The GBP/USD exchange rate has been influenced by a slew of economic data, leading to a subdued performance of the Pound in the forex market. The unexpected decline in UK’s GDP coupled with the prevailing economic uncertainties has been a concern for investors. Additionally, the UK saw an increase in unemployment by 207,000 individuals over the three months leading to July. On the flip side, the Australian economy showcased strength last week, especially with employment data significantly surpassing expectations with an addition of 64.9k jobs. This positive data bolstered market expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia possibly continuing with rate hikes. This week, the spotlight will be on the monetary policy decision of the Bank of England. While an interest rate hike of 0.25% is officially anticipated on Thursday, conflicting remarks from officials last week have muddled the forecasts.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在市场波动中展现韧性 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Market Fluctuations
Recently, gold prices have showcased a robust trend amidst market fluctuations. Despite facing some downward pressures, gold has successfully managed to remain above its 200-day EMA, indicating its resilience. Technical analysis reveals that a small bullish doji was formed on Thursday, followed by a strong rally on Friday, bringing it back above the 200-day EMA. However, gold failed to sustain above the 200-day moving average and faced resistance around the 50 and 100-day EMAs. Nevertheless, the bullish momentum for gold remains intact, with expectations of further upside in the future.
原油分析：市场继续收紧，布伦特原油迎来第三周涨势 Crude Oil Analysis: Market Continues To Tighten, Brent Eyes Third Weekly Gain
Brent crude oil is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain as the market tightens due to supply curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The global crude benchmark has surged past $94 per barrel, marking an increase of over 4% since last Friday’s close. Both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have issued warnings this week about a market deficit persisting through the end of the year. Technically, the oil price oscillates at the bullish channel’s support line, with positive stochastic crossovers indicating potential upward momentum, targeting $90.00 and possibly extending to $91.65 upon breaching the former level.
GBP/USD分析：英镑/美元在200日简单移动平均线遇到坚实支持 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Finds Solid Support At The 200-Day SMA
In recent times, the GBP/USD currency pair has encountered robust support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), hinting at a potential consolidation phase ahead. Despite the bearish pressures, the pair exhibits signs of stability at this pivotal technical level. Additionally, some analysts believe that given the current market dynamics, GBP/USD might continue its trading range in the short term. Currently, the 1.2430 level acts as a notable resistance, with 1.2300 serving as the immediate support.
EUR/USD分析：在欧洲央行的通胀预测升级之际，欧元面临压力 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Faces Pressure Amid ECB's Inflation Forecast Upgrade
The EUR/USD currency pair has been influenced by various factors recently. According to sources, the European Central Bank might upgrade its inflation forecast for 2024, which could exert pressure on the Euro. Technically, the pair is struggling below the 1.0750 mark, and despite showing some signs of a winning streak, another visit to the 1.0685 level remains plausible. The current resistance stands at 1.0750, with support at 1.0685. The market will be keenly observing the next moves from the ECB and its potential impact on the pair’s trajectory.
USD/JPY分析：在日本央行评论后，美元回撤，技术面显示下行风险 USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Retreats Post BOJ Remarks, Technicals Signal Downside Risks
Recently, the USD/JPY currency pair has shown negative attempts following comments from the Bank of Japan. Technical analysis indicates that after breaking a key support level, the pair might face further downside risks. In the short term, the 145.55 support level could be tested, with 146.90 acting as an immediate resistance overhead. The market is keenly awaiting upcoming US data that could further influence its trajectory. Remarks from the Bank of Japan coupled with impending US economic data could serve as pivotal drivers for the pair’s movement.
USD/CHF分析：尽管美元疲软，瑞郎仍维持在0.8900以上 USD/CHF Analysis: Franc Holds Above 0.8900 Despite Weaker USD
Recently, the USD/CHF currency pair has experienced modest losses influenced by a softer US dollar, yet it has successfully managed to sustain above the pivotal 0.8900 level. The pair is currently trading within a sideways trajectory, but due to the resilience of the US dollar, it appears to find support at the 0.8900 mark. From a technical perspective, as long as the pair remains above this support level, further upside could be anticipated. However, any breach might lead to more significant price fluctuations.
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Shows Resilience Despite Market Volatility
Gold prices have shown a commendable recovery recently, with the XAU/USD pair demonstrating resilience amidst broader market fluctuations. The precious metal has managed to stabilize around significant support levels, indicating a potential bullish momentum in the near term. Technical indicators suggest that as long as gold maintains above the $1,780 support level, there’s room for further upside, targeting the $1,800 psychological barrier. On the other hand, a breach below this support might pave the way for a deeper pullback. Additionally, the movement in the USD/CNH pair hints at a potential breakout, which could further influence gold’s trajectory in the coming days.
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro's Struggle On Pullback Pressures
The EUR/USD currency pair has been navigating through some turbulent waters recently. After bouncing off the recent lows near the 1.0700 mark, the pair has managed to reclaim the 1.0740 area. However, despite this rebound, the pair remains under significant pressure, and there’s potential for further losses in the short-term horizon. If the 1.0700 support is breached, the pair might be motivated to challenge the May low of 1.0635. Furthermore, as long as the pair trades below the crucial 200-day SMA, currently at 1.0820, the bearish outlook remains intact.
USD/JPY分析：美元对日元的强劲上涨 USD/JPY Analysis: Strong Surge For The Dollar Against The Yen
The USD/JPY currency pair has seen a significant rally during Tuesday’s trading as liquidity returned post the summer break. Currently, the bullish momentum for the USD against the JPY is robust, with expectations of a full breakout aiming for the key level of ¥150. While occasional pullbacks might occur, the overarching uptrend remains evident. Bond yields in the U.S. and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will play pivotal roles in determining the future market trajectory.
𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃分析：制造业数据与英国央行的立场影响英镑走势 𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐨𝐄'𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
The GBP/USD currency pair has been influenced by various economic and political factors. The UK’s manufacturing PMI data for August showed a decline, indicating a slump in the sector. This data, combined with the Bank of England’s (BoE) continued interest rate hikes to control inflation, suggests that the UK economy is under pressure. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, expressed optimism that inflationary pressures might ease, projecting a decline to 5% by year-end. However, a potential spike in September is anticipated. The BoE’s stance remains hawkish, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike in the upcoming September meeting.
The GBP/USD is trading within a descending triangle, a bearish pattern that suggests a potential downward breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) being below 50 supports this bearish outlook. Key levels to watch include a support at 1.2550 (August low) and resistances at 1.2650 (100-day SMA) and 1.2730 (last week’s high). A breach below the support could extend the bearish trend, while surpassing the resistance might indicate a bullish reversal.
EUR/USD分析：欧元突破100日移动平均线，市场期待欧元区和美国的通货膨胀线索 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Breaks 100-DMA Barrier Awaiting Eurozone And US Inflation Indicators
The EUR/USD currency pair has recently shown strength, successfully breaking through the resistance of the 100-day moving average. Fundamentally, the market is on the lookout for upcoming inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US, which could further influence the pair’s trajectory. On the technical front, the EUR/USD is now targeting levels above 1.0970, which might serve as the next key resistance. The Euro has been buoyed recently by a pause in the US dollar’s ascent and a decline in the Japanese yen, leading to gains in both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.
数字货币改革：美国法院支持ETF比特币引来新一波涨幅 BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin's Price Dynamics Amid Market Corrections
Bitcoin recently experienced a significant rally, surpassing the $26,500 and $27,000 thresholds. The cryptocurrency tested the $28,000 resistance zone but is now undergoing a correction, moving towards the $27,000 mark. This surge was influenced by the news of a US court ruling in favor of Grayscale against the SEC, paving the way for potential ETFs. Despite the current correction, Bitcoin remains above the $26,500 level and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. Immediate resistance lies near $27,650, with significant barriers at $28,000 and $28,500. If Bitcoin can’t breach the $28,000 resistance, it might face a decline, with support levels at $27,000 and $26,700.
XAU/USD分析：黄金的回调或新趋势？ XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Pullback Or A New Trend?
Gold prices have been exhibiting positive stability recently. Despite market uncertainties, there’s a possibility that gold is undergoing a pullback. Both fundamentally and technically, after reaching certain highs, gold has retraced some of its gains. Key support is around the $1,800 mark, while resistance is at $1,850. A breach above could signal bullish continuation, while a drop below might indicate a deeper correction.
USD/CHF分析：美元/瑞郎在鲍威尔讲话前走势向上 USD/CHF Analysis: Gaining Momentum Ahead Of Powell's Speech
The USD/CHF currency pair has been showcasing a robust upward trajectory, currently gaining traction around the 0.8860 mark. This surge is partly attributed to the market’s anticipation of an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken through some critical resistance levels, signaling bullish momentum. If this upward trend persists, we might witness further ascension in the pair. However, Powell’s address could significantly sway this trend, so traders should remain vigilant.
GBP/USD分析： PMI数据出台后, 鸽派预期下英镑走软 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Softens, Dovish BOE Expectations Post-PMI Data
The GBP/USD currency pair has been influenced by various economic data points recently. Notably, after the release of the UK’s PMI data, there’s an increased market expectation of a dovish stance from the Bank of England, leading to a softening of the pound. Despite this, the pair is still attempting to recover above the 1.2700 level. Technically, the pair faces multiple resistances, but buyers are still looking for opportunities above 1.2700. A break above the 1.2800 resistance level could propel it further. However, a breach below 1.2650 could alter the current trend.
USD/JPY分析：美元/日元继续在低位寻找买家 USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Continues To Find Buyers At Lower Levels
The USD/JPY currency pair has shown some technical vulnerabilities recently, especially with the formation of consecutive lower highs. Despite this, every dip has attracted buyers, indicating a continued positive sentiment in the market towards the pair. From a technical standpoint, the pair has found support around the 110.50 level and might continue its upward trajectory. A break above the 112.00 resistance level could propel it further. However, a breach below 110.00 could alter the current trend.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在真实收益率达到14年高点后下跌 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Declines As Real Yields Reach 14-Year Highs
Gold prices have been under significant pressure recently, primarily due to the rise in US real yields and a robust US dollar. Despite economic data indicating growth, gold hasn’t found support, as strong figures amplify the risks of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Technically, gold has breached the June low of 1893 on the daily chart, paving the way for a potential descent to the 1805 support level. Moreover, the 4-hour chart illustrates that gold consistently trades within a declining channel, with each pullback being immaculately rejected by the red 21-day moving average. Only a break from this descending channel might give the bulls a chance for a more substantial pullback. This week, the market’s focus will be on the US PMIs and jobless claims data, along with the Jackson Hole Symposium, where remarks from Fed Chair Powell are eagerly anticipated.
EUR/USD分析：欧元在1.0880附近保持小幅增长 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Maintains Slight Uptick Around 1.0880
The EUR/USD currency pair has been holding onto marginal gains, hovering around the 1.0880 mark, as it manages to rebound from its lowest in six weeks. The recent recovery of the Euro pair can be attributed to the consolidation of the downtrend observed over the past five weeks, coupled with positioning in anticipation of the upcoming Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and the notable Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas Fed. Technically, the Doji candlestick pattern observed on Friday, along with an RSI (14) nearing oversold conditions, suggests a potential corrective bounce in the EUR/USD price. However, the convergence of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a descending resistance line from July 19 marks the 1.0900 level as a significant hurdle for Euro bulls. In essence, while the EUR/USD pair has shown signs of a rebound, the bearish outlook remains dominant, with limited room for further downside.
BTC/USD分析：比特币的未来价值展望 BTC/USD Analysis: The Future Value Outlook Of Bitcoin
Amid the fluctuating cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin’s future value has been a fervent topic of discussion. Some projections indicate that BTC could soar to a staggering $180,000 by next year. This prediction has sparked debates on whether now is the opportune moment to invest and “buy the dip.” However, not everyone shares this perspective. Some analysts believe that the current bear market could persist for several months or even years, attributing this to the ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies. Technically, Bitcoin’s price has broken the major support level at $28,730. A bearish breakout below this level could push BTC towards $27,150, and further declines might see BTC approaching the $26,000 mark.
EUR/USD分析：欧元面临压力，市场关注欧元区GDP EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Under Pressure, Eyes On Eurozone GDP
The EUR/USD currency pair has been under the spotlight recently, especially after the release of robust economic data from the US. The euro is feeling the heat against a resurgent US dollar, currently trading around the 1.0915 mark. Despite this, the pair remains above the crucial support zone of 1.0900. Technically, the EUR/USD is trading below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating increased downside risks. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around the 50 mark, showcasing a lack of clear direction in the market. A breach above the key resistance at 1.0940 could target the next level at 1.0980. Conversely, a drop below 1.0900 might further decline towards 1.0875.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格面临关键决策点 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold At A Crucial Decision Point
近期，黄金价格受到多种因素的影响，其中最为显着的是零售交易者的牛市情绪。尽管这种情绪可能为黄金带来上行压力，但黄金仍面临下行风险。从基本面来看，黄金价格正在接近其首个目标 1,900 的心理关口，这可能是一个关键的决策点。此外，黄金的技术分析显示，其价格在这两天有所上涨，但仍需突破一些关键阻力位。
Gold prices have recently been influenced by a myriad of factors, with bullish sentiment among retail traders being the most notable. Despite this bullish sentiment potentially providing upward pressure on gold, analysts warn that the precious metal remains at risk of a downturn. Fundamentally, gold is approaching its initial target 1,900 psychological level, which could serve as a pivotal decision point. Moreover, from a technical perspective, gold has seen some upward movement in the past few days but still needs to breach certain key resistance levels.
Technically, gold is striving to surpass its recent highs. A successful breach could pave the way for further ascension. However, if gold encounters strong selling pressure at this crucial level from 1,980 level, a pullback in prices might ensue. Traders should keep a close eye on this pivotal level of 1,900 and adjust their trading strategies based on market dynamics.
USD/JPY分析：央行干预意愿低导致日元走软 USD/JPY Analysis: Low Intention Of Intervention From BOJ Drives JPY Weakening
The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing some intriguing movements, with the pair recently attempting to breach significant levels. Fundamentally, the widening interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan have been a driving force behind the pair’s movements. The recent rise in US bond yields, following higher-than-expected producer prices in July, has further fueled this dynamic. These price increases, especially in the services sector, have heightened concerns about persistent wage inflation leading to more entrenched services inflation.
However, despite the pair nearing the 145.00 mark, the likelihood of renewed intervention by the Bank of Japan seems low. The current market dynamics differ from the past, with the yen depreciating only about 5% against the US dollar over the past month. This is in contrast to the more significant depreciation observed before the Bank of Japan’s previous intervention. It’s essential to note that central banks are often more concerned about market functionality than specific levels. The recent movement in the USD/JPY has been relatively measured, which might explain the lack of significant commentary from Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressing concerns about the yen’s position.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY is trading at 144.90, having retreated from its intraday high of 145.22. The pair’s movement suggests a cautious sentiment among traders, with many likely awaiting more definitive signals before committing to a direction.
𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃分析：英镑等待英国𝐆𝐃𝐏和美国𝐏𝐏𝐈数据 𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐊 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐔𝐒 𝐏𝐏𝐈 𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬
The GBP/USD currency pair, often referred to as the “Cable,” has been influenced by a myriad of economic factors recently. The British pound experienced a surge during the trading session, primarily driven by the disappointing CPI and employment figures from the United States. However, the pair seems to be consolidating within a specific range. The Bank of England continues to maintain a tight monetary policy, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s stance. In such an environment, the market doesn’t perceive a significant differential between the two currencies, leading to a lot of sideways movement. The upcoming UK GDP and US PPI numbers are anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the pair’s direction.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair has shown some interesting patterns. After the US CPI readings and unemployment claims, the British pound shot up, but it’s struggling to maintain that momentum. The 50-day EMA seems to be acting as a magnet for the price. Currently, the pair is consolidating just above the 1.2650 level, which has proven to be significant in the past. If the pair breaches this level, it will encounter the uptrend line and the 200-day EMA, both offering support. A drop below the 200-day EMA could signal a more profound decline, potentially altering the trend. Conversely, breaking above the 1.2800 level could open doors to the 1.3000 mark, a psychologically significant level. Overcoming this could then target the recent high at 1.3150.
EUR/USD分析：欧元/美元期待关键经济指标 EUR/USD Analysis: Awaiting Key Economic Indicators
The EUR/USD currency pair has been under the influence of various economic indicators and geopolitical events. One of the most anticipated data releases is the US inflation report, which traders believe could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A hawkish stance from the Fed, indicating potential interest rate hikes, could bolster the US dollar, putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD. Conversely, a dovish sentiment might enhance the Euro’s appeal. Furthermore, global conflicts and their potential escalation always have the power to sway investor sentiment. Given that the Eurozone has its share of economic challenges, any adverse global event could push traders towards the perceived safety of the US dollar.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has been grappling with a descending trend line. While it has managed to stay within this trend for the past few sessions, it’s teetering on the edge. Currently trading below this trend line, the near-term outlook appears bearish. However, should the pair close above this trend, it might indicate a potential shift in momentum. On the upside, resistance is eyed at the 1.1075-1.1095 zone, marked by historical breakpoints and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Beyond this, the 1.1100 psychological level looms large. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair might target the March 2022 high at 1.1185 or even the recent peak at 1.1275. On the flip side, immediate support is seen near the recent low of 1.1010, with the 55 and 100-day SMAs offering additional support around 1.1030.
USD/JPY分析：等待关键经济指标 USD/JPY Analysis: Awaiting Key US Inflation Ahead
The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing fluctuations, with traders and investors closely monitoring various economic indicators. The recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report missed expectations for the second consecutive time, leading to a subsequent decline in the USD/JPY. The drop in unemployment rates, combined with higher average hourly earnings, has raised concerns about more potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Domestically, Japan’s economic data has also influenced the pair’s movement. The Bank of Japan remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, despite inflation remaining elevated. The central bank’s stance is based on the belief that inflation is internationally generated and doesn’t warrant a policy shift.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY is hovering around key support and resistance levels. The currency pair is currently trading within a range, with traders awaiting a breakout in either direction. Key support is identified at the 137.7 level, while resistance is seen around the 143.5 mark.
In the coming days, the market’s focus will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could lead to anticipations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, potentially strengthening the US dollar against the yen. Conversely, a lower inflation rate might provide relief to the markets, leading to a rally in the USD/JPY.
XAU/USD分析：黄金静待本周通胀数据 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Awaiting Inflation Data Ahead
The US inflation and potential recession concern has been a significant driver for gold prices recently. With the US inflation data on the horizon, traders are speculating on its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A more hawkish stance could strengthen the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on gold. As gold is often seen as a hedge against economic instability, any escalation in global conflicts could see an influx of investors turning to the yellow metal.
From a technical standpoint, gold is approaching a pivotal support level at 1929.00. A breach below could signal further declines, targeting the 1913.15 mark. However, overcoming the 1945.20 resistance might pave the way for a bullish resurgence.
USD/CHF分析：市场观望美国通胀数据，支撑位受到关注 USD/CHF Analysis: Bulls Eyeing On US Inflation Data
The USD/CHF pair is currently testing a key support level at 0.8720, following a bounce off this level. The pair’s movement is largely influenced by the upcoming US inflation data, which traders are keenly watching. A positive inflation report could strengthen the US dollar and push the pair higher. From a technical perspective, the pair is trading within a bearish pattern, but the recent bounce off the support level suggests a potential bullish reversal. If the pair can maintain its position above this support level, we could see a further upward movement towards the resistance level at 0.8825. However, a break below the support could signal a continuation of the bearish trend.
EUR/USD分析：市场关注美国非农工资报告，关键支撑和阻力水平成焦点 EUR/USD Analysis: Market Eyes US Nonfarm Payrolls, Key Support And Resistance Levels In Focus
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing slight downward pressure, settling just above the critical 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). The market’s attention is on the 1.10 level, which has contributed to current noise and uncertainty. Traders are keenly awaiting the Friday nonfarm payroll announcement, which has far-reaching implications for central bank decisions and interest rate differentials between the Euro and the US Dollar. The breach of the 50-day EMA could signal bearish sentiment, with 1.09 acting as short-term support. Conversely, 1.11 may present a resistance barrier, with 1.1250 as the next target. Heightened volatility is expected on Friday, and traders should brace for increased fluctuations.
XAU/USD分析：美国国债收益率上升, 黄金面临下行压力 XAU/USD Analysis: Treasury Yields Rise And Retail Exposure Drop Trigger Gold Facing Pressure
Gold prices have dipped as U.S. longer-term Treasury yields rose, with retail traders becoming more bullish, signaling potential further losses. Over the past 48 hours, gold prices have weakened by almost 1.7%, influenced by the rise in U.S. 10 and 30-year bonds. The IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) gauge shows about 76% of retail traders are net-long gold, hinting at a continued fall in prices. Technically, XAU/USD is testing the 1936 inflection point, with a focus on the rising trendline from February. A break under it would shift the outlook to increasingly bearish, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1903.
EUR/USD分析：美国信用评级下调，市场关注美国就业数据 EUR/USD Analysis: US Credit Rating Cut, Euro Bulls Ahead Of US Employment Clues
EUR/USD在中期主要上升趋势线的支撑下恢复了稳定，并倚靠50天SMA的支撑，为该对提供了积极的动能，有助于今天早盘的反弹。最近，该对寻求底部以便再次推高，并在RSI达到超卖水平后出现积极信号，预计在即将的交易中将增加积极压力。然而，该对在周二跌破1.1000支撑，进一步的损失仍在1.1100中期以下。从长期来看，只要在200天SMA上方，今天在1.0728，积极观点仍然不变。交易者需要密切关注周五 (2 Aug)美国即将发布的就业数据，这可能会显着影响价格走势。
EUR/USD has regained stability with the support of the main upward trend line in the medium term, leaning on the 50-day SMA, providing positive momentum for a bounce in early trading today. Recently, the pair sought a bottom to boost higher again, with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, expecting to double positive pressures in upcoming trading. However, the pair slipped back below the 1.1000 support on Tuesday, with further losses remaining while below the mid-1.1100s. In the longer run, the positive view remains unchanged while above the 200-day SMA, today at 1.0728. Traders need to keep a close eye on the upcoming US employment data on this Friday (4 Aug), which could significantly impact the price trend.
USD/JPY分析：多头掌握主导权, 市场关注日本央行政策和美国通胀 USD/JPY Analysis: Bulls Take Control. Eyes on BOJ Policy and US Inflation
The USD/JPY currency pair is witnessing a bullish trend, trading at multi-week highs, as investors react to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy and US inflation expectations. The BOJ’s decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and its unscheduled operation to buy ¥300 billion ($2 billion) worth of Japanese government bonds (JGB) for the first time since February 2022 has put pressure on the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, the US dollar is gaining strength due to expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 100-hour moving average line, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. The pair is trading within a bullish channel formation, suggesting a significant short-term bullish bias. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair could test the resistance level at 143 or even higher at 144.4. However, if a pullback occurs, the bears may aim for profits around 140.71 or below the support at 140.26.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在移动平均线附近波动，上行趋势仍然持续 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Fluctuates Near Moving Average, Upward Trend Still Intact
Gold price is trading around the moving average after a period of tense fluctuations. Despite a decline in trading last Friday, it still maintains a level above 1955 USD. From a technical analysis perspective, the gold price is fluctuating between the support level of 1945.20 USD and the resistance level of 1977 USD. If the price can break through this resistance level, gold may rise further. However, if the price falls below this support level, then gold may decline to next psychological support 1900. Traders need to keep a close eye on these two key levels to make the right trading decisions.
USD/JPY分析：日本央行政策影响，美元/日元走低 USD/JPY Analysis: BOJ Policy Fundamentally Changed, USD/JPY Moves Lower
The USD/JPY pair swiftly moves lower under the influence of the Bank of Japan’s policy, currently trading around 139.00. The Bank of Japan may adjust the 0.5% cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds, which has sparked a rise in the yen in the market. On the technical front, the USD/JPY pair has broken through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from October 2022 to January 2023, and now the bearish MACD signal may push the price further down. If the price breaks through the 138.00-137.80 level, it may test the 200-day moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 136.70. However, only when the Bank of Japan takes a dovish stance will the USD buyers of the become active again.
GBP/USD分析：美元走弱, 美联储决议没惊喜 GBP/USD Analysis: Weakening US Dollar, No Element Of Surprise Fed's Decision
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing an upward trend, trading above the mid-1.2900s, largely due to a weakening US dollar. The pair’s performance is influenced by the expected Federal Reserve’s decision. The market fully expects a 25 basis point interest rate rise, but the key to the foreign exchange market direction will be whether expectations for another rate hike firm or recede based on the guidance. On the technical front, the pair has seen a pullback from its recent highs, but the overall trend remains one of dollar weakness.
XAU/USD分析：密切关注全球央行公告, 黄金价格波动 XAU/USD Analysis: Market Uncertainties Causes Gold Price Fluctuates
Gold prices continue to fluctuate amid market uncertainties, with the price of the yellow metal trading around the $1954 support level. The price action suggests a bearish correction, with the potential for further declines if the price breaks below the $1932 and $1920 support levels. However, the overall trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at $1972 and $1985. The market is closely watching the upcoming announcements from global central banks, which could significantly impact the price trajectory. The strength of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are key factors influencing the gold market. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor market developments.
USD/CHF分析：等待美联储决议, 强势美元持续 USD/CHF Analysis: Awaiting Fed's Decision Along With Strong US Dollar
The USD/CHF pair is currently gaining on the back of a strong US dollar, with oscillators showing mixed signals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The pair’s performance is influenced by the strength of the US dollar and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The pair is expected to witness heavy volatility this week due to these top-tier data events. On the technical front, the pair is showing mixed signals, indicating a potential for both upward and downward movements. Traders are advised to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s decision, which could significantly impact the pair’s trajectory.
EUR/USD分析：货币政策分歧, 等待关键经济数据 EUR/USD Analysis: Awaiting Key Data To End Interest Rate Hike
The EUR/USD pair is currently on the edge, hovering above the 1.1100 support zone, after a three-day losing streak. The pair has been influenced by the US dollar’s recovery and unimpressive EU data, which has led to a bearish bias. The pair’s performance is expected to be influenced by the upcoming Eurozone and US PMI data, as well as the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Both the ECB and the Fed are widely expected to announce a 0.25% rate hike, but future guidance will be key to watch. The pair is expected to witness heavy volatility this week due to these top-tier data events. On the technical front, a daily closing below the 17-month-old previous support line around 1.1140 could direct EUR/USD bears toward April’s peak of 1.1095.
美元走软下, 黄金复苏：2023年7月21日XAU/USD的全面分析 Gold's Strength On Softer US Dollar. A Comprehensive Analysis Of XAU/USD For July 21, 2023
黄金市场正在回稳，价格稳步攀升至1970美元以上。这一上升趋势主要是由于美元走软，使得黄金成为更具吸引力的投资。然而，从价格走势(price action)来看，下行短线目标于1973.80以下，目标定于1965.00、1957.40和1950.60。另一方面，如果价格在1973.80以上, 有可以开展新一轮多头走势, 目标1979.07、1987.57和1995.77。相对强弱指数（RSI）呈现看跌，预示着下行的可能。然而，市场也显示出韧性，黄金价格在1970美元以上的较高水平保持稳定。这表明，虽然可能存在短期波动，但黄金的整体趋势仍然看涨。
The gold market is experiencing a resurgence, with prices steadily climbing above the $1,970 mark. This upward trend is largely due to the softening of the US dollar, which has made gold a more attractive investment. However, the market is not without its fluctuations. Now the price action suggests a downward momentum with short positions below 1973.80 and targets at 1965.00, 1957.40, and 1950.60. On the other hand, long positions above 1973.80 could target 1979.07, 1987.57, and 1995.77. The RSI is bearish, indicating a potential downturn. However, the market is also showing signs of resilience, with the gold price holding at higher ground above $1,970. This suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish.
EUR/USD分析：欧美货币政策分歧下的修正波 EUR/USD Analysis: Potential Correction Wave Along With Diverging Monetary Policies
The EUR/USD pair is currently undergoing a correction from last week’s highs, flirting with the 100-hour SMA support breakpoint around the 1.1225 area. The pair has broken the 4-hour support structure, indicating a bearish bias. A break of 1.12 could seal the deal for the bears, putting pressure on the W-formation’s neckline. The pair’s performance continues to be influenced by inflation concerns and the diverging monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. As the anti-dollar, the Euro’s trajectory is closely tied to the performance of the US dollar against other currencies. While potential pullbacks present buying opportunities, caution is advised.
GBP/USD分析：在美国零售销售增长的同时，英国通胀数据逊预期 GBP/USD UK Inflation Data Falls Below Expectation Along With Rising US Retail Sales
GBP/USD在英国通胀数据逊预期的情况下受到压力。该对目前在1.30水平以下，支持水平在1.2970和1. 2810。该对的运动主要受即将发布的英国通胀数据和美国零售销售报告的影响。美元指数（DXY）正在试图在发布美国零售销售报告后稳定在100水平以上，该报告显示6月份的月度增长为0.2%。 GBP/USD对可能在发布英国通胀数据后看到更明显着的趋势。如果通胀下跌，可能会对英格兰银行施加压力，放松货币政策，这将对英镑不利。
The GBP/USD pair has been under pressure as traders anticipate further catalysts. The pair is currently trading below 1.30 level, with support levels at 1.2970 and 1.2810. The pair’s movement is largely influenced by the upcoming UK inflation data and US retail sales report. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to settle above the 100 level following the release of the US retail sales report, which showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June. The GBP/USD pair could see significant movement following the release of the UK inflation data. If inflation drops, it could put pressure on the Bank of England to ease the monetary policy, which would be bearish for the GBP.
黄金的韧性：全面分析XAU/USD的表现和未来展望 Gold's Resilience: A Comprehensive Analysis Of XAU/USD's Performance And Future Outlook
The Gold market is showing signs of a bullish trend. The precious metal has been benefiting from a weaker dollar, which has been sliding below 100 due to weaker-than-expected payrolls and both the CPI and PPI. The DXY (Dollar Index) is undergoing a classic ABC correction from its peak at 114 and is extremely oversold on the RSI, which signals a massive rally in metals and miners ahead.
On the other hand, Gold appears to be capped around $1965 at the moment. It needs to surpass $2000 to set the stage for an assault on the record high. Support remains at $1900. While the metals and miners have spiked higher aided by the dump in the dollar, they appear to be ready for at least a short-term reversal. Any pullbacks could present buying opportunities, especially if Gold can take out $2000. Stops are recommended below $1890 in Gold.
美元/日元：在动荡游走 USD/JPY: Navigating The Turbulence
The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing a significant downtrend, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline. The pair has reached a nearly one-month low during the early European session, pausing near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June rally. The bearish pressure surrounding the USD remains unabated due to speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its rate-hiking cycle following a 25 bps liftoff in July.
On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is drawing support from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its ultra-loose policy settings as soon as this month. This has contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s downfall over the past week. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY and lending some support to spot prices.
Traders are also seen waiting on the sidelines ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due for release later during the early North American session. The crucial US CPI report should influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly charts is seen helping limit the downside, at least for the time being.
Technical analysis suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. However, bears might still wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest bounce before placing fresh bets from current levels. The 38.2% Fibo level could protect the immediate downside ahead of the 139.00 mark, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The pair might then accelerate the depreciating move towards testing sub-138.00 levels, representing the 61.8% Fibo level.
在看涨动能和美国低通胀推动下，黄金价格（XAU/USD）瞄准2000美元 Gold Price (XAU/USD) Eyes $2000 With Bullish Momentum And Lower US Inflation
Gold market (XAU/USD) is showing positive signs. The price of gold has been steadily rising, reaching its best levels since mid-June, driven by lower-than-expected US inflation. The XAU/USD gold price rose towards the $1960 resistance level, and the market is on track to achieve weekly gains of 2% and an annual increase of 7.3%. The gold price has completed a positive pattern, confirming the breach of the 1945.20 level, which supports the chances of further rise in the upcoming sessions. The next target is at 1977.25, and breaching it could lead to a rally towards the psychological resistance level of $2000 an ounce. However, if the gold price returns to the $1920 support level, it could indicate a stronger bearish control.
欧元/美元的牛市摆动：超买条件满足和潜在修正 EUR/USD's Bullish Swing: A Closer Look At The Overbought Conditions And Potential Corrections
EUR/USD pair has made another swing high at the level of 1.1150 and continues to move upwards. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.1096 and 1.1125, with the next target for bulls at the level of 1.1185. However, it’s important to note that the momentum has hit extremely overbought conditions on H4, daily, and weekly time frame charts. This suggests that a pullback or correction might occur at any time. If a breakout lower occurs, the next target for bears is seen at the levels of 1.0901 and 1.0876. A sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.
GBP/USD：经济不确定性中的看涨反转 GBP/USD: A Bullish Reversal With Economic Uncertainties
The GBP/USD pair has recently seen significant gains, demonstrating a potential for a bullish reversal. This comes despite the ongoing economic uncertainties and the pair’s previous downtrend. The Ichimoku cloud analysis indicates that the pair is currently testing a critical resistance level. A successful break above this level could signal a bullish trend reversal. However, the pair’s performance is still subject to various economic factors, including the upcoming CPI release. Economists are predicting a deceleration in underlying inflation, which could impact the pair’s trajectory. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.
USD/JPY下行趋势：看看美联储政策和日本银行立场的影响 USD/JPY Downtrend: A Look At The Impact Of Fed Policy And BoJ Stance
The USD/JPY pair is currently experiencing a downward trend, with the pair extending its retracement slide from the year-to-date peak levels just above the 145.00 psychological mark. The bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar is primarily due to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. The US employment details and the New York Fed’s monthly survey have indicated that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2.5 years in June and the one-year consumer inflation expectation dropped to 3.8% in June, the lowest level since April 2021. This could allow the US central bank to soften its hawkish stance, leading to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and dragging the USD to a two-month low.
On the other hand, the Japanese yen is drawing support from the recent rise in the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield to a 10-week high and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its policy in July. However, the BoJ has ruled out the possibility of any change in ultra-loose policy settings and signaled no immediate plans to alter the yield curve control (YCC) policy.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 140.70-140.65 region, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally. A convincing break below this level will set the stage for an extension of the ongoing corrective decline. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery back above the 141.00 mark might confront some resistance near the 141.30-141.40 area.
XAU/USD 黄金测试关键阻力 Gold's Crucial Test: Approaching Resistance With Bullish Indicators
XAU/USD目前正测试阻力，现在黄金在1929美元阻力水平附近徘徊。尽管随机振荡器发出负面信号，但过去一周黄金价格的韧性存在看涨趋势。然而，如果跌破1913.15美元，可能会确认向下的波动，下一个主要目标是1873. 50美元。另一方面，如果突破1929美元的水平，可能会推动价格向1945. 20美元的重要阻力水平推进。市场的方向将受到这些关键水平的影响，交易者应密切监控它们。
The XAU/USD pair is currently facing a critical test as it trades around the resistance level of $1929. Despite the negative signals from the stochastic oscillator, the resilience of gold prices in the past week suggests a potential for a bullish trend. However, a break below $1913.15 could confirm a bearish wave towards the next main target of $1873.50. On the other hand, breaching the $1929 level could push the price towards the significant resistance at $1945.20. The market’s direction will be influenced by these key levels, and traders should monitor them closely.
EUR/USD在十字路口：ECB和Fed政策之战 EUR/USD At A Crossroads: The Battle Between ECB And Fed Policies
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a critical juncture, with significant factors influencing its trajectory. The pair is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 1.0900 amid a decline in the US dollar. This comes as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in July due to better-than-anticipated employment additions in the US. This has sparked hopes of more interest rate hikes from the Fed.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is also expected to raise interest rates as inflationary pressures in the old continent are still stubborn. German monthly industrial production has contracted by 0.2%, which indicates that the manufacturing sector could recover ahead.
The market is now focusing on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. If the data shows that the US labor market has added 225k jobs, it could lead to a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. This could further strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY 美元/日元飙升至新高：日本工资上涨和看涨动能在起作用 USD/JPY Skyrockets To New Highs: Rising Wages In Japan And Bullish Momentum In Play
The USD/JPY pair has been on a bullish run, recording new historical highs and showing strong positive momentum. The pair has successfully surpassed the anticipated target of 145.00, with the potential to continue its rise towards 146.10. This upward trend is supported by the EMA50 and is expected to persist, although temporary sideways fluctuations may occur due to stochastic negativity. On the fundamental front, the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization is being bolstered by broadly rising wages across Japan, marking the fastest wage growth since 1993. This wage increase is more widespread than initially thought, with small and medium enterprises also participating in the trend. However, the Bank of Japan will require more evidence than a single wage print to unwind years of supportive monetary policy.
欧元/美元分析：经济波动下 - 欧元会反弹吗？ EUR/USD Analysis: Navigating Economic Waves - Will The Euro Bounce Back?
The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a downward pressure, trading near 1.0880, due to a combination of factors including downbeat German export data and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve compared to the European Central Bank (ECB). The pair has found support above the 1.0800 level, despite the lackluster trading day. The Euro’s performance was also affected by the US dollar’s resilience, which managed to remain steady despite the US Independence Day holiday. Looking forward, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be crucial for immediate directions. Analysts from Nomura recommend buying EUR/USD with a target of 1.12 by the end of August and expect a further advance to 1.16 next year.
BTC/USD瞄准$38,000：积极的市场指标和ETF前景推动牛市动能 BTC/USD Eyes $38,000: Bullish Momentum Fuelled By Positive Market Indicators And ETF Prospects
The BTC/USD pair is showing promising signs of a bullish trend, with market indicators pointing towards a potential rise to the $38,000 mark. The pair has seen a 5.44% growth in the last 30 days, with a cumulative yearly gain of 6.35%. The bullish outlook, which began in June, is expected to continue into July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator and the SuperTrend indicator both signal a buy, suggesting a sustained uptrend. The recent reclaiming of the $31,000 resistance level and the potential breach of the $32,000 level could further propel BTC towards key resistance levels at $35,000 and $38,000. However, high trader profits could lead to a cooldown. In other news, BlackRock has resubmitted its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal to the SEC, which could open the door for more institutional investors to enter the crypto market.
USD/JPY再向新高：积极的美国数据和日本央行鸽派立场推动牛市动能 USD/JPY Soars To New Heights: Bullish Momentum Fuelled By Positive US Data And Dovish BoJ Stance
The USD/JPY pair continues to exhibit a bullish trend, recording new historical highs and moving within an intraday bullish channel. This is supported by positive US data and the Bank of Japan’s dovish monetary policy. The pair is expected to surpass the 145.00 level, opening the way for a continued rise towards 146.10. However, temporary sideways fluctuations may occur due to stochastic negativity. A break below 144.10 could halt the bullish wave and put the price under correctional bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 144.00 support and 145.60 resistance.
XAU/USD 在美国利率上升和鹰派中央银行的影响下，XAU/USD面临下行压力 XAU/USD Faces Downward Pressure With The Rising US Yields And Hawkish Central Banks
Gold prices are currently experiencing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, with the XAU/USD pair hovering just above the critical $1900 mark. This decline is primarily driven by the strengthening US dollar, which has been bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and the surge in US Treasury bond yields. The hawkish stance of other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, has also contributed to the shift away from the non-yielding gold. However, the deteriorating global economic outlook and concerns about worsening US-China relations could provide some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders should closely monitor the $1895 support level, as a breakdown could reinforce the bearish outlook and set the stage for a slump towards the 200-day moving average near $1855.
GBP/USD：在经济不确定性和技术指标中导航市场波动 GBP/USD: Navigating Market Volatility Amid Economic Uncertainties And Technical Indicators
The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a challenging market environment, with the pair trading below the 1.2650 level. The pair is under selling pressure due to the hawkish outlook of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar. The pair is vulnerable below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest uptrend, suggesting a bearish outlook. On the other hand, the British pound is weighed down by concerns about economic headwinds from aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). The market is also concerned about the UK heading towards a recession due to high inflation and soaring interest rates. Speculative buying of the pound has increased at a record rate, which could exacerbate future losses if the market turns. However, the pound could rebound if the current rebound in US exchange rates fizzles out or if the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation softens further.
原油价格：在中央银行决策和供应问题之间的拉锯战中导航 Crude Oil Outlook: Navigating The Tug Of War Between Central Bank Decisions And Supply Concerns
Crude oil prices are currently under pressure due to the anticipation of central bank decisions and concerns about supply. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve are expected to maintain their hawkish stance, with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon. This could dampen global demand and put further pressure on oil prices. On the technical front, Brent crude is eyeing $71.50 as the next level of support, with a drop to $67.50 possible if bearish momentum continues. Meanwhile, WTI crude prices are approaching a familiar pivot point at $67, which has acted as a significant level in the past. A convincing close below this level could trigger an extended sell-off towards $62. On the supply side, despite Saudi Arabia’s pledge to reduce output from July, the market is factoring in a slightly oversupplied situation, as indicated by the shallow contango in the two-month spread.
XAU/USD：在预期的围绕美联储国会证词的波动中测量关键技术水平 XAU/USD: Navigating Key Technical Levels Amid Anticipated Volatility Surrounding Fed's Congressional Testimony
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a precarious position, with market attention focused on US inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s announcement, and the ECB’s interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to maintain rates, but a hawkish surprise could be in store. The ECB is anticipated to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points, but its guidance may lean dovish. The balance of risks for EUR/USD appears to be tilted to the downside in the short term. On the technical front, EUR/USD has corrected sharply lower from its May highs, dipping below an important trendline. EUR/USD is trading above the resistance at 1.0750-1.0800. If the sell side manage to drive prices lower and take out support at 1.0640-1.0600, this could move forward to the psychological 1.0500 handle.
XAU/USD - 在鹰派联储立场下，黄金价格面临下行压力：关注关键技术水平 XAU/USD - Gold Prices Face Downward Pressure Amid Hawkish Fed Tone: Key Technical Levels To Watch
The gold market is currently under pressure, with XAU/USD breaking below key support levels. This is largely due to hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suggesting further rate hikes, which have weighed on gold prices. On the technical front, gold has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. A break below the psychological level of US$1900 could potentially open the door for further losses towards the next key support level at US$1868. On the flip side, if gold manages to reclaim its footing above US$1900, this could alleviate immediate selling pressure and bring the resistance level of US$1930 back into focus. Meanwhile, the resilience of the US mega-cap tech sector and the Bank of Japan’s wait-and-see approach to monetary policy add further complexity to the market dynamics.
GBP/USD：中央银行对通货膨胀和利率預期上升, 英磅看漲 GBP/USD: Evaluating The Uptrend Amid Central Banks’ Stance On Inflation And Interest Rates
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an ascending trend, marked by consecutive higher highs and higher lows since September of the previous year. Support lines, including the 200-day Moving Average, a declining trendline support, and Ichimoku, are monitored closely, as they could generate a higher low if a pullback occurs. The 1.300 level is a critical point for any bullish momentum reversal. Fundamentally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently shared a hawkish outlook, stating that the battle against inflation is far from over and suggesting that interest rates are likely to escalate. However, Powell highlighted the importance of data in guiding decisions, thus offering a less decisive and more cautious approach by the Fed. The market’s attention is now shifting to the Bank of England’s imminent interest rate verdict, which is largely anticipated to continue the tightening cycle. In the meanwhile, the US dollar experienced a slight decline (-0.45%) overnight as Treasury yields trimmed early advances, closing mostly unchanged to moderately higher. With a 25 basis points rate increase nearly confirmed in the forthcoming meeting, and terminal rate expectations set at 6%, the GBP/USD pair appears to be in a holding pattern awaiting further cues from central banks.
XAU/USD：在预期的围绕美联储国会证词的波动中测量关键技术水平 XAU/USD: Navigating Key Technical Levels Amid Anticipated Volatility Surrounding Fed's Congressional Testimony
XAU/USD 面临显著的技术阻力和支持水平，其中50天移动平均线、水平阻力区和1950. 00水平成为关键阻力。相反，1925.06、水平支持区和1900. 00水平視为重要支持。在基本面上，市场期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美国众议院金融服务委员会作证，届时他将向国会提交半年度货币政策报告。他的回应，特别是关于美联储的货币政策行动及其影响，可能会受到密切审查。此外，其他美联储官员也将作证，可能为投资者提供更清晰的前景。目前，市场预期在美联储11月会议上额外加息略少于25个基点。然而，强调以数据驱动的决策仍然至关重要，这表明结果可能从长期维持利率到更积极的加息不等。这种不确定性可能会引发金市的波动，并影响XAU/USD对的走势。。
The XAU/USD pair faces notable technical resistance and support levels, with the 50-day Moving Average, a horizontal resistance zone, and the 1950.00 level as the key resistances. On the flip side, 1925.06, a horizontal support region, and the 1900.00 level emerge as vital supports. On the fundamental side, market participants are keenly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, where he will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. His responses, particularly regarding the Fed’s monetary policy actions and their implications, are likely to be closely scrutinized. Moreover, other Federal Reserve officials are also set to testify, possibly providing investors with a more lucid outlook. Presently, market expectations are factoring in marginally less than 25 basis points in additional rate hikes for the Fed’s November meeting. However, the emphasis on data-driven decision-making remains paramount, suggesting that the outcome could range from a prolonged hold on rates to more aggressive hikes. This uncertainty is likely to induce fluctuations in the gold markets and influence the XAU/USD pair’s trajectory.
欧元/美元：欧洲央行内部加息分歧, 欧元看涨 EUR/USD: Assessing Technical Patterns Amid Divergent Views Within ECB On Rate Hikes
欧元/美元货币对在接近1.0900水平时出现轻微的看跌倾向，试图继续预期的近期看多趋势，受随机指标和EMA50指标的积极支持。此外，倒置的头肩顶形态增加了看多动能，如果该对突破1.0940水平，暗示进一步的正面交易可能性，并将1.1075作为下一个目标。然而，跌破1.0860可能会有施加向下压力。在基本面上，欧洲央行（ECB）内部存在不同的意见。鹰派Isabel Schnabel和Peter Kazimir主张在达到最高利率之前进行额外的加息，Schnabel强调采取积极措施来控制通胀的重要性。相反，以鸽派立场著称的欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane建议在7月可能加息，但对进一步增加持非承诺态度，提倡以数据为驱动的方法。密切关注欧洲央行在利率调整上的不同观点是至关重要的，因为它们可能影响欧元/美元对的走势。
The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a mild bearish tendency as it neared the 1.0900 mark, but initiated the day with a bullish inclination, aiming to continue the anticipated bullish trend in the near term, bolstered by positive stochastic and EMA50 indicators. Moreover, the inverted head and shoulders pattern is adding to the bullish momentum, suggesting potential for further positive trading if the pair breaches the 1.0940 level, setting sights on 1.1075 as the next target. However, breaking below 1.0860 could end the bullish scenario and exert downward pressure. On the fundamental side, there are contrasting opinions within the European Central Bank (ECB). Hawks Isabel Schnabel and Peter Kazimir advocate for additional rate hikes before peak interest rates are reached, with Schnabel emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to contain inflation. In contrast, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, known for his dovish stance, proposes a likely rate hike in July but is non-committal regarding further increases, advocating for a data-driven approach. The varying perspectives within the ECB on interest rate adjustments are crucial to monitor as they may impact the EUR/USD pair’s movements.
美元/日元：在鹰派联储立场和稳定的日本银行政策背景下，应对通道阻力 USD/JPY: Navigating Channel Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed Tone And Steady BoJ Policy
美元/日元货币对目前正在重新测试上行通道趋势线的阻力位，其100日移动平均线上穿200日移动平均线，呈现多头信号。如果成功突破这一阻力位，可能为目标145.20铺路。从基本面来看，美联储的鹰派立场通过联储理事Christopher Waller和里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin的言论表明，由于核心通胀持续，可能需要进一步的货币紧缩。此外，国债收益率在美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后美元近期下跌之后保持相对稳定，两年期和十年期收益率分别小幅上升，为美元缓解了轻微的下行压力。与此同时，日本银行（BoJ）通过保持利率不变并继续其收益率曲线控制政策来维持现状。日本银行政策的任何变化都将是出人意料的，并可能产生重大影响，但就目前而言，他们预测未来几个月通货膨胀将放缓，这意味着加息可能不会立即发生。
The USD/JPY currency pair is currently retesting the resistance level of an upper channel trendline, supported by a bullish signal as its 100-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. A break above this resistance could pave the way for targeting 145.20. On the fundamental front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as indicated by remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, suggests that additional monetary tightening may be on the cards due to persistent core inflation. Additionally, Treasury yields remained relatively stable with marginal increases in the two-year and ten-year yields, offering slight relief to the US dollar after its recent decline following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the status quo by keeping rates unchanged and continuing its yield curve control policy. Any alteration to the BoJ’s policy would be unexpected and likely to have a significant impact, but for now, their prediction of subdued inflation in the coming months implies that changes are not imminent.
XAU/USD分析：黄金在支撑位遇阻，伴随着美联储会议 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Resistance At Support Levels Amidst Federal Reserve Meeting
For XAU/USD on June 15th, gold prices hover around $1,960 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The precious metal has tested and rebounded at support zones around $1,935. Fed Chair Powell’s potential hawkish outlook cannot be disregarded as he seeks maximum flexibility for future meetings.
On the fundamental side, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but there may be a warning that rates could rise further in July due to the central bank’s ongoing struggle with inflation. The unanimous vote on this decision suggests policymakers are aligned in their strategy to address inflation and achieve the long-term goal of 2.0% inflation. While headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) has improved compared to last year, currently standing at 4.0% year-over-year, it still remains double the target, emphasizing the persistent nature of inflation as reflected in the core gauge.
EUR/USD分析：通胀数据和央行预期下的区间交易 EUR/USD Analysis: Range-Bound Trading Amidst Inflation Data And Central Bank Expectations
For EUR/USD analysis on June 14th, the currency pair has been trading within a range. Strong support has been identified around the 1.0680-1.0700 area, which could come into play if tomorrow’s strong CPI (Consumer Price Index) print strengthens the US dollar. This could potentially push EUR/USD back towards the support zone at the 1.0680 level.
On the fundamental side, the US inflation rate for May came in slightly lower than the forecasted 4.1%, signaling a reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike. Market pricing indicates expectations of a pause from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a higher probability of a rate hike in the July meeting. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers maintain their hawkish stance.
GBP/USD 分析：英国央行预期支撑英镑 GBP/USD Analysis: Bullish Momentum And BoE Expectations Support The Pound
In this analysis of GBP/USD for June 12th, we observe the pair’s upward movement as it surpasses prior resistance levels around 1.2550 and continues to push higher. The recent bullish candle broke above both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, suggesting potential strength for GBP/USD to test the recent multi-month high around 1.2680. However, resistance is encountered at the 50-day moving average, and the short-term directional bias remains uncertain, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading around the midpoint.
From a fundamental perspective, the British Pound concludes the week on a positive note, exhibiting significant gains against various G7 currencies. The Bank of England’s expectations of approximately 100 basis points of additional interest rate hikes in 2023, compared to other major central banks, provide further support for the Pound.
EUR/USD 分析：经济指标和地缘政治紧张局势引起的看跌信号 EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Signals Amidst Economic Indicators And Geopolitical Tensions
In this analysis of EUR/USD for 8 June, we observe the daily price action approaching the apex of a bear pennant formation, indicating a potential breakout in either direction. A confirmed close below the pennant support could trigger a textbook pattern unfolding towards subsequent support zones. Conversely, a move above the pennant resistance could negate the downside momentum and support euro strength.From a technical perspective, resistance levels are identified at 1.0800 and 1.0700, while support lies at 1.0620, represented by the 200-day moving average.
On the fundamental side, the euro has weakened against the US dollar due to a significant miss on China’s balance of trade for May. Additionally, economic indicators, such as recent inflation and PMI data, have pointed to a slowdown in the eurozone economy. The escalating situation in Ukraine further adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the euro, supporting the safe haven appeal of the US dollar.
纳斯达克分析：持续上漲及潜在过热担忧 Nasdaq Analysis: Sustained Gains And Potential Overheating Concerns
In this analysis of the Nasdaq (NAS100) for June 7th, we examine the continued steady gains in the index since late April, with an impressive addition of around 1800 points during this period. The index shows no signs of reversing or consolidating at the moment. However, caution is warranted as the market reaches extended levels and potential overheating concerns arise.
From a fundamental perspective, the Nasdaq displayed strength on Monday, reaching a fresh one-year high, driven by the euphoria surrounding AI stocks. The next target for the index is set at the previous highs of March 2022, around 15,230, if the upward momentum continues. Furthermore, the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data further confirmed the resilience of the US labor market, as May’s job additions surpassed economist expectations, with April’s figures also revised upward.
This analysis sheds light on the Nasdaq’s sustained gains and highlights the market’s ability to withstand challenges. Traders should closely monitor the index’s key levels, considering the potential risks of extended levels and the positive economic data’s impact on market sentiment.
黄金分析：技术区间交易和市场对FOMC会议预期 Gold Analysis: Technical Range-Bound Trading And Market Expectations For The FOMC Meeting
In this analysis of gold (XAU/USD), we observe that the precious metal is currently trading within a defined technical range between 1930 and 1980. Despite remaining below key moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, there is potential support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $1,904 per ounce, with further significance at the $1,900 level.
On the fundamental front, the recent disappointment in the May ISM services PMI survey results has increased market expectations for a possible pause at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 14th. Traders are closely monitoring this event, as interest rate swaps and futures markets are not currently anticipating a rate hike. However, there is approximately a 70% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase at the July meeting.
欧元/美元：技术性下跌及美联储可能暂停加息的影响 The Influence Of Federal Reserve Policies And Technical Patterns On The EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Today, the EUR/USD pair has been exhibiting bearish behavior, with trading levels dipping below the 1.07 mark. This downward trend comes on the heels of heightened volatility, revealing a strong bearish control in the market. The currency pair’s performance has been notably impacted by the persistent rise in inflation and shifts in domestic consumption in the U.S.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has formed lower highs, adhering to a clear downtrend. The currency pair’s movement towards the 1.07 level indicates a strong psychological support line, its lowest in over two months. However, the pair could potentially bounce back, as technical indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show potential for a bullish correction in the near term.
On the fundamental front, economic indicators in the U.S. have suggested persistent inflationary pressure. However, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent hike in interest rates to between 5% and 5.25%, there is increasing speculation that the Fed might halt its policy of tightening in the near future. This speculation is based on reports suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are leaning towards leaving interest rates unchanged in the upcoming months.
The potential pause in interest rate hikes by the Fed could significantly impact the EUR/USD dynamics. If the Fed decides to hold off on further rate hikes, it could potentially lead to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar, providing some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY面临140关键阻力区之际，经济和货币政策的不确定性增加 USD/JPY Faces Key Resistance At 140 Amid Economic And Monetary Policy Uncertainty
As of today, USD/JPY is trading near a key resistance area around 140, reflecting a significant point of potential reversal. The pair’s strength can be attributed to the Dollar Index’s recent pullback from 104.20, spurred by the approval of a raise in the US debt ceiling. However, this increase in the debt ceiling may potentially impact the long-term credibility of the U.S. economy, increasing the probability of a downgrade by credit rating agencies. Such a downgrade could put pressure on the Dollar Index and U.S. equities, potentially leading to a correction in USD/JPY.
Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the S&P 500 futures have relinquished most of their gains from early trading sessions in Asia. Given that U.S. markets are closed today in observance of Memorial Day, investors may be inclined towards risk aversion. This, along with the possibility of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve due to persistent U.S. inflation, could exert downward pressure on USD/JPY.
Technically speaking, USD/JPY is currently facing a crucial test at the 140 level. This area of resistance marks a possible turning point for the currency pair. Despite the recent momentum, the market could witness a pullback if the pair fails to break this barrier convincingly. It’s important to keep an eye on key technical indicators and price action in the coming days.
XAU/USD市场分析：在债务上限问题解决的背景下现底部形态 XAU/USD Market Review: A Bottoming Formation Amid A Resolved Debt Ceiling
In the XAU/USD pair, we’re observing a potential bottoming out around the 1940 level. On the technical front, gold has been demonstrating resilience near the horizontal support zone, which stems from the March 15 high of $1,937.39. Despite this, the 20-period EMA, currently at $1,952.38, continues to thwart the efforts of gold bulls to initiate a recovery. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be transitioning from a bearish range (20.00-40.00) to a neutral range (40.00-60.00), suggesting a possible slowdown in bearish momentum1.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent resolution of the US debt ceiling has exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY), creating a favorable environment for gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. The increase in the US debt ceiling, however, may lead to a downgrade in the country’s long-term credibility by credit rating agencies, potentially supporting gold prices further. It’s also important to note that the anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, driven by persistent US inflation, could add a layer of complexity to the gold price dynamics. Investors will likely pay close attention to the upcoming US employment data, which may shape expectations for the Fed’s policy direction in June1.
In conclusion, the technical and fundamental factors suggest a possible bottoming formation for gold around the 1940 area. The interplay between US economic developments and monetary policy decisions will likely be key factors influencing the XAU/USD pair in the coming period.
分析EUR/USD价格走势：下行趋势是否将继续? Examining EUR/USD Price Action: Will The Downtrend Continue?
In today’s analysis of EUR/USD, we observed a breach below the key area of confluence at 1.0730, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend towards the psychological support level of 1.0700. On the upside, resistance is anticipated around 1.0810. The fundamental aspect reveals that Germany’s Q1 GDP confirmed a technical recession, dampening optimism among euro bulls in a risk-averse environment. Additionally, the speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials could shed light on the recent German GDP report and its potential impact on the hawkish narrative. The upcoming US GDP release and statements from the Fed’s Collins may provide further insights and influence future interest rate decisions.
By analysing the technical and fundamental factors, we gain valuable insights into the potential trajectory of EUR/USD. Understanding the price action dynamics and the influence of economic indicators and central bank communications helps traders and investors make informed decisions in the EUR/USD market.
USD/JPY上行潜力：上升趋势是否延续？ Analyzing The Potential For Upside In USD/JPY: Will The Uptrend Continue?
In today’s analysis of USD/JPY, we examine the potential for further upside in the pair. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is currently near the upper boundary of a broad daily-chart uptrend channel, which has been in place since late march and is an extension of the upward movement since January 2022. The immediate support level is seen at 137.50, representing May 1’s intraday high. As long as the channel base around the 135 level remains intact, the current uptrend is likely to continue. However, a break below this level could prompt a reassessment of the bullish structure that has persisted for the past six months.
In terms of fundamentals, the movement in USD/JPY is largely influenced by interest rate differentials. The Bank of Japan stands out among major central banks as it continues to pursue a loose monetary policy despite the prevailing global inflationary pressures. With a focus on stimulating domestic demand and the belief that the current wave of inflation is transitory, the Bank of Japan maintains its course.
By analysing both technical and fundamental factors, we gain insight into the potential direction of USD/JPY. Understanding the dynamics of the uptrend channel and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance can help traders and investors make informed decisions in the USD/JPY market.
黄金分析：下跌修正结束了吗？ Is Gold's Downward Correction Coming To An End?
In today’s analysis of gold (XAU/USD) for May 24th, we examine whether the downward correction in gold has come to an end. From a technical perspective, we observe that the recent rebound in price might lose momentum as it approaches the formidable barrier around the 2005-2020 range, including the 200-period moving average and the mid-March high. However, XAU/USD is currently holding above the key support area of 1925-1950, which is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. A break below this level could prompt a reassessment of the six-month-long uptrend.
On the fundamental side, Federal Reserve policymakers have voiced their opposition to market expectations of rate cuts in 2023, challenging the prevailing sentiment. Additionally, tensions surrounding the US debt ceiling have intensified, as negotiations between President Joe Biden and House Representative Kevin McCarthy reach a critical point. The US Treasury Department’s consideration of delayed payments raises the question of whether Democrats perceive a risk of incomplete negotiations before the June 1 deadline. These factors exert downward pressure on the US dollar and provide support for gold.
美元/日元分析：上升三角形突破和国债收益率的影响 "USD/JPY Analysis: Ascending Triangle Breakout And Influence Of Treasury Yields"
USD/JPY has broken above the ceiling of an Ascending Triangle chart pattern and surpassed the price level of 138, indicating a continuation of the upside trend. However, traders should monitor the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closely, as negative divergence suggests a weakening of upside momentum.
On the fundamental side, the decline of USD/JPY correlated with a rise in Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate has been on a seven-day winning streak. The Japanese Yen remains sensitive to external economic and financial market developments, and its fate will largely be determined by yields elsewhere. Currently, ongoing economic optimism in the US has supported bond yields. Additionally, the financial markets are hopeful that US politicians can reach a debt ceiling deal to avoid a potential default.
A key risk for the Japanese Yen this week will likely come from the US Core PCE Deflator print on Friday, which could impact USD/JPY.
相关主题："原油分析：突破阻力，受库存惊喜与加拿大山火影响" Topic: Crude Oil Analysis: Overcoming Resistance Amid Inventory Surprises And Canadian Wildfires
Crude oil has been making progress on the downside, but it recently managed to overcome resistance at 73.93. However, this level and the high reached at 73.58 might continue to pose as resistance levels. On the downside, the psychological support at 70 was not sustained, and potential support levels can be found at the breakpoints and prior lows of 69.41, 66.82, and 66.12.
In terms of fundamentals, market participants are closely awaiting the release of the weekly US Energy Information Agency (EIA) data on Wednesday. This data is of particular interest following last week’s unexpected surge in oil inventory, with a substantial addition of 5.04 million barrels compared to the anticipated drawdown of 920k barrels. Additionally, severe wildfires in the Canadian provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan are expected to impact the nation’s oil production output, potentially reducing it by nearly 250k barrels per day. This development is seen as a bullish sign for crude oil.
黄金分析：美元走强、美债担忧和美联储鹰派立场不利贵金属行情 Gold Analysis: Dollar Strength, US Debt Concerns, And Fed's Hawkish Tone Weigh On Precious Metal
Gold has been experiencing downside movement, as it closed below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and failed to hold at the psychological support level of 2000. Another support level is expected to be around 1970. On the fundamental side, the recent strength of the US dollar can be attributed to increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions around the US debt ceiling. Furthermore, statements from US Federal Reserve speakers, such as Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic, indicating the need to remain vigilant in combating inflation, even if it leads to increased unemployment, imply the possibility of another interest rate hike, which could negatively impact the price of gold.
EUR/USD分析：美元走强与需求担忧对欧元区造成压力，增长前景面临挑战 EUR/USD Analysis: Dollar Strength And Demand Fears Weigh On Eurozone, Challenging Growth Prospects
EUR/USD experienced a slide in its value, with the support level at 1.0840 holding for the time being. Last week, the pair faced a late-week selloff due to the return of US Dollar strength and a decline in market sentiment. However, it has started to recover from the drop observed in the previous day’s trading. On the fundamental side, Eurozone industrial production faltered in March, declining by 4.1% compared to the previous month. This has added to concerns about global demand. In addition, ECB policymaker Kazimir’s hawkish tone and the EU Commission’s revised forecast indicating higher inflation and GDP growth in 2023 have raised questions about the feasibility of sustained growth in the second half of that year.
GBP/USD分析：失业率上升与经济放缓带来的信号為英鎊帶來不确定前景 GBP/USD Analysis: Mixed Signals And Uncertain Outlook Amid Rising Unemployment And Economic Slowdown
GBP/USD has been trading within a range of 1.24 to 1.26 against the US dollar. Despite some fluctuations, the overall risk appetite in the market remains positive, and the pair has been recovering from a drop observed in the previous day’s trading. On the fundamental front, the UK unemployment rate has risen, reaching 3.9% in the January-March quarter, reflecting a higher jobless rate compared to the previous month. Additionally, companies have reduced their payrolls by 136,000 in April, totaling 29.8 million. This suggests a loss of economic momentum, potentially influenced by higher interest rates dampening demand. Consequently, the analysis presents a mixed message with no clear direction. While the technical analysis indicates an upward trend, the fundamental factors support a weakened outlook. Traders should closely monitor market developments and consider both technical and fundamental factors when making trading decisions.
May 3rd Daily Analysis
On May 3rd, the dollar experienced a decline following a report revealing a decrease in new jobs in the United States. Market participants eagerly awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which was set to be announced later in the day.
According to data released the day before, new jobs in the US dropped for the third consecutive month in March, with the rate of layoffs being the highest it has been in over two years. This slowdown in the labor market could assist the Federal Reserve in its efforts to curb inflation.
As a result, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other currencies, dropped by 0.029% to 101.820, after experiencing a decrease of 0.245% the day prior.
Pivot Point: 101.80
May 2nd Daily Analysis
On Tuesday, May 2, gold prices remained stable as market participants treaded cautiously, waiting for monetary policy signals from major central banks, especially the US Fed.
Spot gold remained largely unchanged, holding steady at $1,983.29 per ounce, while US gold futures slipped 0.1% to $1,991.
Pivot Point: 1988
May 1st Daily Analysis
The dollar index rebounded 0.45% to 101.710, recovering from its lowest level in almost two weeks. However, the greenback remained on track for a monthly loss of just under 1% after a 2.3% drop in March. Traders had concerns about the soundness of the US banking system and the prospects for the Fed to end its monetary tightening policy, as the country’s economic growth faltered.
Pivot Point: 101.50
April 28th Daily Analysis
Following the release of US growth and unemployment benefit data and unemployment claims, the US dollar experienced a significant surge in trading on Thursday. Despite the fact that the US economy first quarter of this year recorded a lower-than-expected growth rate of only 1.1%, the dollar witnessed a remarkable rise as a result of this news.
Today, the US dollar index showed a 0.26% increase, settling close to the 101.50 points level.
Pivot Point: 101.25
April 27th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index decreased by 0.41% to 101.172 against a basket of foreign currencies, following a 0.5% rise in trading last Tuesday.
The major US market indices closed sharply lower yesterday, driven by the decline of First Bank’s stock, which fell by approximately 40%, renewing fears of a US bank crisis.
Pivot Point: 101.15
April 26th Daily Analysis
On Tuesday, the price of gold declined due to a surge in the value of the dollar, which compensated for the decline in Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US economic data later this week to predict the Fed’s next move regarding interest rates.
In spot transactions, the price of gold decreased by 0.1% and reached $1986.04 per ounce, while US gold futures contracts dropped by 0.2% and were priced at $1996.80.
Pivot Point: 1992
April 25th Daily Analysis
In early European trading on Monday, the US dollar saw a slight rise but remains on track for a second consecutive monthly loss. More economic data set to be released are expected to provide insight into the future direction of interest rates.
Currently, the dollar index is trading slightly lower at 101.345, with a monthly loss of approximately 1%, following a decline of over 2% in March.
The dollar’s recent decline can be attributed to concerns about a sharp slowdown in the US economy after it reached a 20-year high towards the end of last year.
Pivot Point: 101.24
April 24th Daily Analysis
On Friday, April 21st, gold prices recorded their second consecutive week of losses.
Upon settlement, gold futures fell by 1.4%, or $28.6 an ounce, to $1990.5 an ounce, to reach the lowest level in 3 weeks.
The decline in gold prices coincided with expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates by approximately 25 basis points, rising to 80%.
Pivot Point: 1986
April 19th Daily Analysis
In early European trade on Tuesday, the US dollar fell, reversing some of its overnight gains, as investors’ risk appetite improved following healthy growth data from China.
Despite the initial decline, the dollar index rebounded on Wednesday, rising by 0.1% in trading and settling near its pivot point.
Pivot Point: 101.50
April 18th Daily Analysis
On Monday, the Fed of New York announced that its measure of manufacturing activity in the state had increased for the first time in five months, further fuelling expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming May meeting.
Following this announcement, the probability of a 25-basis point increase in interest rates at May meeting rose to over 88%, and the US dollar experienced a slight rise before dropping again by 0.1% the following morning.
Pivot Point: 101.65
April 17th Daily Analysis
The value of the dollar inched up against major currencies while Treasury bond yields showed a slight fluctuation, with the 2-year government debt’s yield, which is sensitive to interest rates, remaining at approximately 4.1% on Monday.
Last week, these yields increased due to lower-than-anticipated core retail sales figures for March and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
As worries about the banking industry ease and inflationary pressure persists in the United States, traders are now speculating on a minimum of one interest rate hike this year.
Pivot Point: 101.05
April 14th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index registered a 0.14% decline, reaching a two-month low of 101.138, against a basket of foreign currencies, in today’s trading session. This drop occurred earlier during the Asian session.
Data released prior to the start of the session revealed a slowdown in producer prices that exceeded expectations, along with new claims for unemployment claims that came in higher than consensus. Both indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve’s tight policy approach is achieving its objectives in reining inflation.
As a result, the likelihood of interest rate stabilization at the upcoming May meeting has increased to over 30%.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 12th Daily Analysis
The dollar index fell 0.1%, and analysts estimate a significant decline in the inflation rate to 5.2% in March from 6% in February. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise to 5.6% from 5.5%.
Pivot Point: 101.90
April 11th Daily Analysis
The dollar index fell 0.1%, and investors are awaiting US consumer price data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow, Wednesday, in search of more clarity on the direction of interest rates during the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting in May.
A strong employment report in the United States released on Friday led to bets emerging that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, with the market expecting a 71.3% increase of 25 basis points, according to CME’s Videowatch service.
Pivot Point: 102.10
April 10th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, and the index closed 0.2% higher in the previous session.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 236 thousand – slightly above the median forecast – after a rise of 326 thousand in February. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. While the average hourly wage increased by 4.2% compared to last year, which is lower than estimates, and the slowest since June 2021.
Pivot Point: 101.75
April 07th Daily Analysis
The US dollar rose in early European settlement as risk sentiment favoring the safe haven weakened. However, it remained near two-month lows as a cold economy signals a pause in the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle.
The dollar index is now recording 101.640, up 0.1% against a basket of foreign currencies, and trading today above the two-month low of 101.140 seen during the previous session.
Please note that there is an early closure on the dollar index today at 7:15 pm Dubai time.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 06th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose slightly today, but it is not far from its recent low in two months, as traders assess the impact of the non-farm payroll data announced during the weekend on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve
Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report follows disappointing service sector data from the Institute for Supply Management and private sector employment data on Wednesday, as well as a drop-in US manufacturing activity in March at the weekend.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.95 after falling to a two-month low of 101.40 in the previous session.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 05th Daily Analysis
The US dollar declined significantly during Tuesday’s trading and fell to its lowest level since early February. This decline took place after the release of some negative US economic data that raised concerns about the fact that the Fed’s continuing to raise interest rates.
This data reinforced expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, especially after the labor market was affected by the previous interest rate hike.
Economic data in the US revealed that factory orders fell by about 0.7% in February, compared to a 2.1% decline in January.
Pivot Point: 101.45
April 04th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index fell to 101.860 by 0.30% after the index rose strongly on Monday following the OPEC decision. This acts as a warning that the Fed will have to raise interest rates for a longer period.
Furthermore, data from the Institute of Industrial Supplies was issued, which indicated the most violent decline in 21 months since 2020. This is an indication of the contraction of the US economy, affected by the recent tightening policy of the Federal Reserve.
Pivot Point: 102.00
April 03rd Daily Analysis
The dollar index futures rose to the level of 102.720 after shifts in interest rate expectations. The market now believes that the interest rate will rise by 25 basis points in the next meeting in May, between the level of 5.00%-5.25%, although the markets did expect before that the interest rate would rise at the next meeting.
Pivot Point: 102.08
March 30th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose slightly against most of the major currencies on Wednesday to stabilize after falling over the past few sessions and rose sharply against the yen, which has been volatile as the Japanese fiscal year draws to a close.
The dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 102.64.
It had fallen in the past two sessions and is expected to record a monthly loss of 2.1%, falling victim to market turmoil caused by problems in the banking sector.
Pivot Point: 102.25
March 29th Daily Analysis
Fed member Philip Jefferson said that once the demand rate declines, inflation would return to the Fed’s target of 2%, and we are still testing inflation and testing the effects of the fiscal tightening imposed by the Federal Reserve by reducing budget and raising interest rates.
Jefferson refused to comment on the pressures of the banking crisis or to talk about the interest rate hike in the next May meeting. Moreover, he stressed that the current inflation rate is very high and has maintained a high level for more than expected time and that his goal is to reduce inflation as quickly as possible. He said that this reduction would take time due to the fact that reducing some inflationary factors needs time.
The dollar index decreased by 0.40% to reach the level of 102.105
Pivot Point: 102.15
March 28th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index futures declined with the opening of the American session yesterday to drop to 102.618 levels. The decline comes in light of the Dow Jones index rising by more than 250 points, with the rise in banking sector stocks after the news of First Citizens Bank’s purchase of deposits of the Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed two weeks ago. The acquisition came for $500 million, noting that the market value of Silicon Valley had exceeded $400 billion by the end of 2022. That is, the transaction was carried out at 90% less than the value of Silicon Valley.
The US dollar comes started to get weaker after the Fed’s comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve in Minneapolis, who highlighted some uncertainty about the path of rate hikes and added that the US economy is now closer to recession than before.
Pivot Point: 102.60
March 27th Daily Analysis
The USD is trying to stabilize above its pivot point of 102.65 in a relatively quiet week in economic data, and the highlight of Friday will be the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. That accelerated in January, adding to concerns about the prospects for further tightening by the Fed.
Also, consumer confidence data for March is scheduled for release on Tuesday and is likely to show the impact of pressures on the financial system. Other reports include data on pending home sales, revised GDP and initial unemployment claims.
Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, including Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed Chair Susan Collins, Richmond Bank President Tom Parkin, and Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook.
Pivot Point: 102.65
March 24th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell to its lowest level in seven weeks after the Fed raised interest rates as expected, although some phrases in the central bank’s announcement suggested that interest rates may be close to peaking.
The index records 101.805, down by 0.16% in yesterday’s session, to return to trading above 102.00 levels today.
Pivot point: 102.05
March 23th Daily Analysis
The US dollar continued its weak performance, extending its series of declines for the sixth day, after the decision to raise the federal interest rate by only 25 basis points. Moreover, the two-year Treasury yields fell by about seven basis points, after declining by 23 basis points on Wednesday.
Pivot point: 102.25
March 22th Daily Analysis
Markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve meeting today, in which members of the Federal Open Market Committee will reconsider their economic outlook and implement another increase in federal funds, amid divergent expectations between stabilization and a rate hike of about 25 basis points.
Pivot point: 102.85
March 21th Daily Analysis
Within its downward horizontal trend, the US dollar settles near its pivot point at 103.15, and investors await many important economic data, on top of which are the Federal Reserve interest rates and the economic expectations of the Federal Open Market Committee, tomorrow, Wednesday, March 22nd.
Pivot point: 103.15
March 20th Daily Analysis
The US dollar, which is considered a safe haven, is settling around 103.50 levels so far, coinciding with severe fluctuations in the financial markets.
Investors are waiting for many important economic data, led by the Federal Reserve interest rates and the economic outlook of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 22.
Pivot Point: 103.65
March 17th Daily Analysis
Gold prices fell from their highest level in 6 weeks at the settlement of Thursday’s trading session, the sixteenth of March, with the easing of concerns related to the banking sector.
Upon settlement, gold futures fell by 0.4%, or $8.3, to $1923 an ounce, but it soon rebounded after this correction, reaching again above $1930 an ounce, and this is within the general bullish trend that the yellow metal gained this week.
Gold prices rose over the past week, with the yellow metal benefiting from concerns about the stability of the European and US banking system.
Pivot Point: 1,920
March 16th Daily Analysis
The so-called Fear Index rose on Wall Street after remaining relatively weak in most of the sessions this year. As investors searched for a safe haven, gold prices became higher after previously declining. Moreover, the US dollar advanced against all its developed market counterparts except for the Japanese yen. However, not all safe-haven assets rose, as the Swiss Franc declined by more than 2% against the dollar.
Pivot Point: 104.00
March 15th Daily Analysis
The dollar found support in Asian markets on Wednesday, March 15th, as investors cut their expectations about cutting interest rates in the United States after easing fears of a banking crisis and the release of data showing that inflation remains high.
In early trading, the wave of selling the dollar, which lasted for two sessions, subsided, and the US currency rose about 0.2% against both the euro and the yen, recording 132.52 yen and 1.0729 dollars against the euro.
Pivot Point: 103.30
March 14th Daily Analysis
Investors are awaiting the inflation data and the consumer price index in the United States of America, which is expected to decline from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, and from 6.4% to 6.0% on an annual basis.
This data comes after a significant decline in the US dollar after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank
Pivot Point: 103.40
March 13th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell on Monday, March 13th, as the US authorities intervened to curb the repercussions of the sudden collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), as investors hoped that the US Fed would follow a less stringent monetary path.
Officials also said that depositors at Signature Bank, which was shut down by New York state financial regulators on Sunday, would be compensated and that taxpayers would not suffer any losses.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six currencies, fell 0.153% to 104.080. The Japanese yen rose 0.34% to 134.52 against the dollar, its highest level in a month, as investors moved towards safe-haven Asian currencies.
Pivot Point: 104.25
March 10th Daily Analysis
Gold prices fell on Friday, March 10, as investors await the non-farm payroll data in the United States, which is expected to be released today, to assess the likely path of raising interest rates in the US Fed.
Gold in spot transactions fell 0.1% to $1828.90 an ounce, and US gold futures fell 0.1% to $1832.90 an ounce.
Pivot Point: 1,825
March 09th Daily Analysis
On Thursday, March 9, the dollar fell after hitting a 3-month high earlier in the day, as investors adjusted their positions on the possibility of a higher interest rate hike for a longer period after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surprised the markets with a more hawkish approach to monetary policy.
Powell said that the US Fed would likely need to increase interest rates by a larger amount than expected after the release of strong data recently. Moreover, he stated that the bank is ready to move with greater steps if the “total” of the incoming data indicate the need for more stringent measures to control inflation, which prompted dealers and investors to reconsider their expectations about interest rates.
The dollar index declined in the latest trading by 0.09%, recording 105.54 after reaching 105.88 earlier in the day, the highest level since the first of December.
Pivot Point: 105.60
March 08th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose to multi-month highs against most other major currencies on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that interest rates may need to be raised faster and higher than expected to rein in stubborn inflation.
The dollar index rose 0.2% in Asian trading, to its highest level in more than 3 months at 105.86.
Pivot Point: 105.10
March 07th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell broadly on Monday, March 6, as investors await US Federal President Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. The February jobs report will be also be released at the end of the week and is likely to influence the Fed’s interest rate decision.
The dollar index fell 0.182% to 104.420. Last week, the index incurred its first weekly loss since January.
Pivot Point: 104.30
March 06th Daily Analysis
Data on Friday showed that the US services sector grew steadily in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs, indicating the economy continued to expand in the first quarter.
On Saturday, Fed Chair Mary Daly said that if the number in data related to inflation and the labor market continues to rise more than expected, it is necessary to raise interest rates and hold them at that level for longer than what Fed policymakers expected in December.
Pivot Point: 104.60
March 03rd Daily Analysis
The dollar index continues in a state of turmoil as it faces higher demand with the increasing expectations of raising interest rates to higher than expected levels, on the one hand, and data and numbers of economic indicators in the United States of America on the other.
Technically, the dollar is trying to consolidate at its important levels at 107.75 after gapping down with the opening of today’s session. The readings of the technical indicators are still fluctuating and not within a clear direction.
Pivot Point: 104.80
March 02nd Daily Analysis
The dollar incurred losses on Thursday, March 2, as optimism about the reopening of China received support from encouraging data and strengthened the Asian currencies. After 10 o’clock Dubai time, positive technical readings returned on to the dollar index, starting from trend indicators with the upward intersection of moving averages and reading the EMA indicator. Moreover, there is positive momentum today.
Pivot point: 104.45
February 28th Daily Analysis
The dollar index declined by 0.4% after reaching a seven-week peak after Durable Goods Orders (M/M) came out less than expected at (-4.5%).
Technically, the US dollar index is trying to test the resistance levels at 104.78, supported by momentum indicators.
Pivot Point: 104.78
February 27th Daily Analysis
The dollar index continued to rise with more of positive data on the US economy and the increase in the Fed’s need to raise interest rates.
Technically, momentum indicators support the more bullish movement, as is it the case with the trend indicators of moving averages and EMA for the general trend. Meanwhile, the dollar index tries to hold above its pivotal point at 104.95.
Pivot Point: 104.95
February 24th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index rose after data released yesterday, Thursday, that the number of Americans who filed for new applications for unemployment claims fell unexpectedly last week, and the United States announced that its gross domestic product grew by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to previous expectations of growth It amounts to 2.9%.
Pivot Point: 104.50
February 23th Daily Analysis
The dollar index rose above 104 levels yesterday, after a resounding decline in the US markets, after increasing fears that the US interest rate peak would reach 5.50% or higher.
It was clear from the minutes of the FOMC meeting that it was agreed on the need to continue tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation.
Pivot point: 104.30
February 20th Daily Analysis
Markets and traders are awaiting important data that will provide more clarity regarding the Fed’s next move. Other readings from US consumer data are expected to be influential in the Fed’s decisions to tackle inflation and interest rates later this week.
This comes amid a debate among central bankers about the need to adjust the pace of interest rate increases in light of rising fears of a global recession.
Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting are due next Wednesday, at which the US central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, and the readings may help illuminate the appetite for a bigger hike when policymakers meet again in March.
Pivot Point: 104.05
February 17th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose as US Treasury yields rose on Friday, February 17, heading for a third week of gains as a wave of strong economic data in the United States increased market expectations that a new interest rate hike is on the horizon.
Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected drop in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week. Meanwhile, other data showed that, in January, monthly producer prices reached their highest level in seven months.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index advanced 0.09% to 104.20 after reaching the highest level in more than a month at 104.24 in the previous session.
Pivot Point: 103.85
February 14th Daily Analysis
The dollar index may have started today’s session with some negative readings (H1), starting from the negative intersection of the moving averages, with the EMA signal matching as well.
However, this price movement is fully subject to change based on what will happen today in the markets after the release of CPI data.
Momentum indicators may also be volatile today, and there is no strong bullish momentum yet.
Pivot Point: 103.35
February 13th Daily Analysis
The markets are anticipating many important economic data this week, the most important of which is the consumer price index in the United States of America, which will give us a more comprehensive view of the Fed’s orientation during the coming period, which in turn will directly affect the movements of the US dollar.
The dollar index is trying to consolidate above its pivot point at 103.25 since the beginning of today’s session, and the positive technical readings started from the positive moving averages intersection and the positive directional EMA indicator.
Momentum indicators may be volatile and there is no strong bullish momentum yet.
Pivot Point: 103.25
February 10th Daily Analysis
The Dollar Index fell on Thursday after the weekly Unemployment Claims rose more than expected at 196K.
It moves in line with the decline in Treasury yields, as investors insisted that the Fed does not need to raise interest rates more because inflation is starting to become under control.
In evening trading, the dollar index fell 0.2 percent to 103.24.
But then the index came back to settle at the same important levels around its pivot point at 103.00
Pivot Point: 103.00