USD/JPY下行趋势:看看美联储政策和日本银行立场的影响
USD/JPY Downtrend: A Look at the Impact of Fed Policy and BoJ Stance

USD/JPY下行趋势:看看美联储政策和日本银行立场的影响
USD/JPY Downtrend: A Look at the Impact of Fed Policy and BoJ Stance

USD/JPY对当前正在经历下行趋势,扩大了其从年初至今的高点145. 00心理水平以上的回调滑动。围绕美元的看跌情绪主要是来自人们推测美联储(Fed)正在接近其政策紧缩周期的尾声。美国就业细节和纽约联储的调查表明,6月份美国经济增加的就业岗位最少在2.5年内,一年的消费者通胀预期下降到3.8%,这是自2021年4月以来的最低水平。这可能会让美联储软化其鹰派立场,导致美国国债收益率进一步下降,并将美元拖至两个月低点。

另一方面,日元得到了最近10年期日本政府债券(JGB)收益率上升到10周高点和预期日本银行(BoJ)将在7月调整其政策的支持。然而,日本银行已经排除了任何改变超宽松政策设置的可能性,并表示没有立即改变收益曲线控制(YCC)政策的计划。USD/JPY对目前在140.70-140.65区域交易,标志着5月-6月涨势的38.2%斐波那契回调水平。一旦突破这个水平,将为当前的修正性下跌阶段铺平道路。另一方面,如果回到141.00以上, 就要回去到141.30-141.40区域附近的阻力。

The USD/JPY pair is currently experiencing a downward trend, with the pair extending its retracement slide from the year-to-date peak levels just above the 145.00 psychological mark. The bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar is primarily due to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. The US employment details and the New York Fed’s monthly survey have indicated that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2.5 years in June and the one-year consumer inflation expectation dropped to 3.8% in June, the lowest level since April 2021. This could allow the US central bank to soften its hawkish stance, leading to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and dragging the USD to a two-month low.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is drawing support from the recent rise in the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield to a 10-week high and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its policy in July. However, the BoJ has ruled out the possibility of any change in ultra-loose policy settings and signaled no immediate plans to alter the yield curve control (YCC) policy.

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 140.70-140.65 region, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally. A convincing break below this level will set the stage for an extension of the ongoing corrective decline. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery back above the 141.00 mark might confront some resistance near the 141.30-141.40 area.

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