美元/日元分析：上升三角形突破和国债收益率的影响
"USD/JPY Analysis: Ascending Triangle Breakout and Influence of Treasury Yields"
美元/日元分析：上升三角形突破和国债收益率的影响
"USD/JPY Analysis: Ascending Triangle Breakout and Influence of Treasury Yields"
技术面上，美元/日元突破了一个上升三角形图形的阻力位，并超过了138的价格水平，表明上涨趋势将继续。然而，投資者应密切关注相对强弱指标（RSI），因为背离显示出上涨势头的减弱。
在基本面上，美元/日元的下跌与美国国债收益率上升相吻合。10年期收益率连续七天上涨，创下自2022年4月以来的最长连涨纪录。正如本周展望所提到的，日元将对外部经济和金融市场的发展保持敏感。
由于日本银行采取极度宽松的货币政策，其他地区的收益率将主要决定日元的走势。在这种情况下，过去24小时内，美国持续的经济乐观情绪继续支撑债券收益率。与此同时，金融市场似乎仍然对美国政治家能够在潜在的违约之前就债务上限达成协议抱有希望。
本周对日元的一个重要风险可能来自于周五发布的美国核心个人消费支出通胀指数数据。
USD/JPY has broken above the ceiling of an Ascending Triangle chart pattern and surpassed the price level of 138, indicating a continuation of the upside trend. However, traders should monitor the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closely, as negative divergence suggests a weakening of upside momentum.
On the fundamental side, the decline of USD/JPY correlated with a rise in Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate has been on a seven-day winning streak. The Japanese Yen remains sensitive to external economic and financial market developments, and its fate will largely be determined by yields elsewhere. Currently, ongoing economic optimism in the US has supported bond yields. Additionally, the financial markets are hopeful that US politicians can reach a debt ceiling deal to avoid a potential default.
A key risk for the Japanese Yen this week will likely come from the US Core PCE Deflator print on Friday, which could impact USD/JPY.