黄金分析：技术区间交易和市场对FOMC会议预期
Gold Analysis: Technical Range-bound Trading and Market Expectations for the FOMC Meeting
黄金分析：技术区间交易和市场对FOMC会议预期
Gold Analysis: Technical Range-bound Trading and Market Expectations for the FOMC Meeting
在对黄金（XAU/USD）的分析中，我们观察到该贵金属目前正在一个明确的技术区间内交易，区间范围在1930至1980之间。尽管黄金仍然低于关键的移动平均线和23.6%的斐波那契回撤水平，但在每盎司约1904美元的38.2%斐波那契水平附近可能会遇到支撑，进一步重要支撑位在1900美元水平。
在基本面上，五月份的ISM服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）调查结果未达到预期，增加了市场对即将到来的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议暂停的预期。交易者密切关注即将举行的FOMC会议，因为利率掉期和期货市场目前并不如预期加息。然而，这些市场目前暗示在7月份的会议上加息的概率约为70%，涨幅为25个基点。
In this analysis of gold (XAU/USD), we observe that the precious metal is currently trading within a defined technical range between 1930 and 1980. Despite remaining below key moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, there is potential support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $1,904 per ounce, with further significance at the $1,900 level.
On the fundamental front, the recent disappointment in the May ISM services PMI survey results has increased market expectations for a possible pause at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 14th. Traders are closely monitoring this event, as interest rate swaps and futures markets are not currently anticipating a rate hike. However, there is approximately a 70% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase at the July meeting.