Analisis Harian

Analisis Harian

November 29th Daily Analysis

The dollar has fallen since its biggest two-day sell-off on November 10-11, when consumer inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below estimates of 8%.

Last week, the dollar fell further, completing a bearish pattern, after the Fed’s meeting minutes revealed a growing consensus to smooth its hawkish path to hike rates.

But technically, the readings are still conflicting even on the intersections of the moving averages (a positive unstable intersection tending to return to the bottom again), and awaiting more data during this week for the dollar to take clear directions.

Pivot point: 106.15

November 28th Daily Analysis

The dollar rose broadly on Monday as protests over COVID-19 restrictions in China fueled uncertainty and weighed on sentiment, sending the yuan lower. As a result, the jittery investors turned to the safe-haven dollar.

The dollar index fell against a basket of currencies 0.08 percent to 106.25, but without falling to its lowest level in three months at 105.30.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the outlook for the US economy and labor market at an event at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, which is likely to give more clues to the outlook for US monetary policy.

Pivot point: 105.95

November 25th Daily Analysis

The dollar continued to decline strongly – for the fourth day in a row – during today’s trading, reaching a very low point for the first time in months.

Today, Friday, November 25, the dollar fell by more than 0.17%, after declining 1.02% yesterday.

Technically, the dollar index is still weak and is expected to decline further if it remains below 105.75 levels.

Pivot point: 105.75

November 24th Daily Analysis

The US dollar index fell by 0.9% since the majority of the Fed’s members in the November meeting believed that a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes will likely remain appropriate.

Fed members also noted that the labor market remains strong, but many noted initial signs that it may be slowly moving towards a better balance between supply and demand.

Technically, the US dollar is expected to decline with the continuation of the negative technical signs related to it, despite the expected correction due to its hold on and its attempt to test the support levels at 105.55.

Pivot point: 106.35

November 23th Daily Analysis

Investors are looking forward to getting more clues about the future direction of the Fed’s interest rates from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for release today, Wednesday, November 23.

Technically, after several attempts to stabilize above its important resistance at 107.10, the dollar index was unable to stabilize and returned to decline again, and we see negative readings on most of the technical indicators, including trend and momentum indicators.

Pivot point: 107.20

November 22th Daily Analysis

News of increasing cases of coronavirus in China made the US dollar stronger, so it rose high against major currencies yesterday, Monday, November 21. On the other hand, the Chinese yuan fell, as sentiment deteriorated due to the rise in coronavirus infections and the tightening of restrictions in some cities in the second largest economy in the world.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against 6 major currencies, rose 0.412% to 107.330 on Monday, its highest level since November 11.

Technically, the US dollar continues to improve gradually, in an attempt to hold above the resistance levels at $107.35.

Pivot point: 107.45

November 21th Daily Analysis

On Friday, November 18, the dollar headed towards its best week in a month, as statements by Federal Reserve officials and stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data curbed the US currency’s decline after signs of declining in the inflation rate.

Technically, the US dollar started to improve relatively, in an attempt to hold above the resistance levels at $107.10.

Pivot point: 106.65

November 18th Daily Analysis

The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.60 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving average readings and shows the possibility of a further decline towards 105.20.

The dollar rose yesterday, Thursday, November 17, with the increase in US Treasury yields, at a time when investors are betting on the US Federal Reserve to tighten its policy relatively, before returning today below its important resistance levels at 106.60.

Pivot point: 106.55

November 17th Daily Analysis

Retail Sales in the US rose faster than analysts expected in October, as consumers continued to spend despite rising inflation.

Investors are pinning hopes that the data will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate increases aimed at curbing inflation.

The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.60 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving averages’ readings and shows the possibility of further decline towards 105.15.

Pivot point: 106.15

November 16th Daily Analysis

After several tests of the important resistance levels near $107, the US dollar index – which measures the price of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies – is still declining and trying to consolidate, awaiting more economic data.

The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.70 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving averages’ readings and shows the possibility of further decline towards 105.15.

Pivot Point: 106.15

November 15th Daily Analysis

The US dollar is trying to stabilize above 106.50 levels after increasing expectations of a significant decline in the US inflation rate next year 2023.

The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.70 and indicates the that the decline might possibly continue. On the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from the current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the readings of the moving averages and shows the possibility of a further decline towards 105.15.

Pivot Point: 106.70

November 14th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar held firm on Monday following last week’s bruising dive as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the central bank was not softening its fight against inflation.

A slightly cooler-than-anticipated inflation data on Thursday sent the greenback on a tailspin, with the dollar index sliding 3.6% over two sessions last week, its biggest two-day percentage loss since March 2009. The dollar index fell 0.094% at 106.610, not far off Friday’s low of 106.27.

The dollar index declines hit a critical level at 106.70 and signal a possible continuation of the decline. On the hourly chart, technical indicators show signals of a swing higher from the current levels but moving averages indicate the opposite.

Meanwhile, the daily chart confirms the readings of the moving averages and shows a possibility of further decline towards 105.15.

Pivot Point: 106.70

November 11th Daily Analysis

The dollar index and dollar index futures lost 0.2% each while languishing at a two-month low after data showed U.S. CPI inflation grew 7.7% in October, its slowest pace in nine months.

The reading gives the Federal Reserve impetus to hike interest rates by a smaller hike of 50 basis points in December. Markets are also positioning for such a move, with traders pricing an 80% chance of the Fed hiking rates at a slower clip. A group of Fed members also said this week that they support such a move to avoid damaging the economy.

The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.40. However, breaking the resistance at 109.20 led to a drop toward 107.50. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.

Pivot Point: 107.70

November 10th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar remains weak, although it edged higher during the Asian session. The Greenback stabilizing ahead of the key inflation data later today. Crucial U.S. consumer inflation data is expected to show the annual CPI figure falling to 8.0% in October from 8.2% the prior month, while the core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen dropping to an annual 6.5%, from 6.6%.

The dollar has been under downward pressure of late from expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease back from its aggressive hiking cycle shortly, potentially as early as December.

The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.90 reaching 109.40. However, breaking the resistance between 109.40 and 109.20 will most likely lead to a drop toward 107.50 on the daily chart. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.

Pivot Point: 110.35

November 09th Daily Analysis

The dollar declined during the morning sessions, as traders await the results of the U.S. midterm elections. In addition, the inflation data could disappoint hopes for a slowdown in rate hikes.

The greenback has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and China reopening and driving growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is down about 0.9% so far this week and hovered at 109.73 during the Asian trades.

The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.90 reaching 109.40. However, breaking the resistance between 109.40 and 109.20 will most likely lead to a drop towards 107.50 on the daily chart. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.

Pivot Point: 109.55

November 08th Daily Analysis

The dollar wobbled Monday, but that hasn’t squeezed the life out of bets for the greenback to reign supreme in the coming weeks with the midterms and fresh inflation data on the horizon.

The hourly chart shows resistance at 111.08 and also shows the index heading towards 110.70. Meanwhile, technical indicators show slight divergence and the possibility of rebounding if the index gained momentum before breaking 110.30.

Pivot Point: 111.10

November 07th Daily Analysis

The pound tumbled and volatility returned to the U.K. government bond market on Thursday after the Bank of England signaled it can’t afford to raise interest rates much further without killing the economy.

As expected, the Bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points, the biggest hike in nearly 30 years, to 3.0% – the highest it has been since 2008. However, markets sold off with increasing force as Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues signaled that they didn’t think interest rates needed to rise much further. The pound fell 1.7% to below $1.13 before recouping some of its losses to stand at $1.1290.

Despite the positive movement this morning, the Sterling pair remains under heavy selling pressure. The hourly chart indicates a possible continuation of the corrective trend towards 1.1270. However, the daily chart shows a more bearish tendency.

Pivot Point: 1.1220

November 04th Daily Analysis

Sterling was up 0.50% at $1.1215, clawing back some of its losses from a 2% slide overnight. It was heading for a weekly loss of more than 3%, the largest since September’s market turmoil triggered by an economic plan that alarmed investors.

While the BoE raised interest rates by the most since 1989 on Thursday, it warned investors that the risk of Britain’s longest recession in at least a century means borrowing costs are likely to rise less than they expect.

Despite the positive movement this morning, the Sterling pair remains under heavy selling pressure. The hourly chart indicates a possible continuation of the corrective trend towards 1.1270. However, the daily chart shows a more bearish tendency.

Pivot Point: 1.1220

November 03th Daily Analysis

The Cable rose 0.1% to 1.1499, ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting. However, Market participants expect an interest rate increase of 75 bps while consumer inflation hits double figures in September.

The cable remains under heavy selling pressure below the resistance at 1.1440 and it remains within the negative direction. Meanwhile, the daily chart shoed high resistance at 1.1650 limiting chances for any gains in the foreseen future. However, the hourly chart shows the trendline targeting 1.1320.

Pivot Point: 1.1385

November 01st Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar eased from a one-week top against a basket of major peers on Tuesday, as traders weighed the odds of a less aggressive Federal Reserve at Wednesday’s widely watched monetary policy meeting.

The U.S. dollar index eased 0.16% to 111.35, eating into some of the 0.79% gains it made on Monday. The index has fluctuated widely around the 112 level since it retreated from a two-decade high of 114.78 at the end of September.

Pivot Point: 110.70

October 31st Daily Analysis

Sterling Pound fell 0.4% to 1.1564 but is still set for a near 4% gain this month as traders welcomed the appointment of Rishi Sunak as the new U.K. prime minister, easing some of the political and economic uncertainty that his predecessor had unleashed. The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is widely expected to hike interest rates once more as it attempts to combat inflation running at double digits.

The Sterling pound reflects the optimism and confidence of the market but remains not strong enough to gather momentum for an uprise. Technical indicators show neutral readings while Fibonacci retracement shows fluctuations.

Pivot Point: 1.1550

October 28th Daily Analysis

The Dollar Index reached a session high of nearly 110.48, rising for the first time since October 19. The dollar rallied as the U.S. economy turned positive for the first time in 2022 with a growth of 2.6% in the third quarter, after two prior quarters in the negative.

A stronger economy will help the Fed carry on with aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing the worst U.S. inflation in four decades. Still, some said there appeared to be trouble with the U.S. economy despite its forecast-beating growth in the third quarter, and that could explain gold’s modest losses on Thursday.

Pivot Point: 110.70

October 27th Daily Analysis

During the morning sessions, the British government delayed the announcement of its plan to repair the country’s financial situation, which supported the sterling pound. Furthermore, the delay was based on ensuring that the program reflected the latest and most accurate economic forecasts.

The Cable surged above the major resistance levels during the past 24 hours which provided momentum to test 1.1645 on the hourly chart. However, technical indicators show a high probability of penetrating the resistance at 1.1645 before a slowdown in the uptrend.

On the other hand, the daily chart shows a possibility to break above 1.1685 to target 1.1840. However, technical indicators confirm the assumption of further gains in the short run.

Pivot Point: 1.1620

October 26th Daily Analysis

The dollar index was unchanged after falling more than 2% over the past four sessions. U.S. Treasury yields also fell further from 14-year highs, amid growing speculation that the Fed intends to soften its policy stance by December.

While markets expect an at least 75 basis point hike by the Fed in November, expectations of a smaller hike in December are now growing. Rising interest rates boosted the dollar to 20-year highs this year and weighed heavily on Asian markets.

The dollar index drops below the support level at 110.80 after the gap down this morning while Fibonacci retracement shows a continuation of the decline on the hourly chart. However, technical indicators show negative momentum and diversion towards the selling activities.

Meanwhile, the daily chart shows further decline towards 110.20 which will most likely indicate a continuation to the correction trend. Technical indicators show similar signals as the hourly chart with strong selling pressure. However, breaking the support at 110.20 will be a signal to target 108.50.

Pivot Point: 110.60

October 25th Daily Analysis

The Greenback eased against peers on Tuesday amid signs Federal Reserve rate hikes might hit the brakes, while risk sentiment improved with Rishi Sunak about to become Britain’s prime minister.

The dollar index eased to 111.78 near Friday’s low of 111.68, the weakest level in three weeks. The greenback softened after S&P flash PMI data overnight showed U.S. business activity contracting for a fourth straight month in October, the latest evidence of an economy slowing in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.

On the hourly chart, the Index remains solid above 112 and heading toward the resistance at 112.35. Meanwhile, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend above 112.35. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a continuation of the positive trend and is supported above 111.60. Technical indicators move neutrally.

Pivot Point: 112.00

October 24th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trades, absorbing suspected intervention by the Bank of Japan, while sterling pushed higher as former finance minister Rishi Sunak looked likely to become Britain’s prime minister.

On the hourly chart, the Index remains solid above 112 and heading toward the resistance at 112.35. Meanwhile, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend above 112.35. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a continuation of the positive trend and is supported above 111.60. Technical indicators move in a neutral fashion.

Pivot Point: 112.30

October 18th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar rose slightly on Tuesday, recovering from a 1% drop during the last trading day as sentiment improved after the U.K. government made a dramatic reversal on a controversial tax policy. The dollar index rose 0.2% on Tuesday from around ten days low, while dollar index futures rose 0.1%, hovering around the 112 level.

But despite weakening slightly in recent sessions, the greenback is expected to gain in the coming months, especially as the Federal Reserve keeps hiking interest rates to combat rampant inflation.

The dollar index moves downwards after failing to penetrate the resistance at 112.05 but found light support at 111.80. However, the daily chart remains positive on the daily chart as long as the index is trading above 109.60.

Pivot Point: 111.80

October 17th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar started a slow-paced week as the dollar index traded slightly below 113 during the Asian session. However, this week is expected to be calm with the absence of major news. The index fell from the resistance levels at 113.25 towards the key support at 112.40 which is expected to grant momentum for a rebound.

However, we still expect two scenarios at this stage. The first one, if the index broke above 113.25 it will probably head towards 114 and 114.30. on the other hand, if the index failed to penetrate the resistance, it might head towards 112 in the short run. However, the daily chart remains positive as long as the index is trading above 109.60.

Pivot Point: 112.90

October 14th Daily Analysis

The dollar slightly retreated during the early trades as risk appetite returned to global stock markets. Meanwhile, investors appeared to shift their focus away from U.S. interest rate considerations.

The dollar index shed 0.3%, extending the overnight session’s 0.5% decline as investors seemingly brushed off data that showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in September.

Technically:
The index fell from the resistance levels at 113.25 towards the key support at 112.40 which is expected to grant momentum for a rebound.

However, we still expect two scenarios at this stage. The first one, if the index broke above 113.25 it will probably head towards 114 and 114.30. on the other hand, if the index failed to penetrate the resistance, it might head towards 112 in the short run. However, the daily chart remains positive as long as the index is trading above 109.60.

Pivot Point: 112.60

October 13th Daily Analysis

The focus of this week is mainly on the U.S. CPI inflation data, which is due later today. The reading is expected to show that U.S. inflation remained stubbornly high in September, giving the Fed more impetus to keep raising interest rates. The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting also showed that the Fed has no plans to soften its hawkish stance.

Technically:
Gold prices are heading downwards on the hourly chart reaching the support at $1,665 per ounce. However, the current support is not strong enough to hold against the current selling pressure which might break the supports at 1,665 and 1,659 to head towards 1,650.

Meanwhile, the daily chart remains within the downtrend channel heading towards 1,620 on the foreseen time frame.

Pivot Point: 1,670

October 12th Daily Analysis

U.S. inflation data for September is also a key point of focus for metal markets this week. Producer price inflation data is due later on Wednesday and is expected to show that price headwinds for manufacturers persisted last month.

Consumer price inflation, the more closely-watched inflation gauge, is due on Thursday and is expected to show inflation remained pinned near 40-year highs last month. Both readings, coupled with strong jobs data last week, are expected to give the Fed enough impetus to keep raising interest rates at a sharp pace. However, weakening risk appetite pushed investors to the greenback, with the dollar largely overtaking the title of Safe-Haven.

Technically:
The index is trading at the resistance level of 113.25 which may cause a high level of volatility. However, there will be two scenarios at this level. The first one, if the index broke above 113.25 it will probably head towards 114 and 114.30. on the other hand, if the index failed to penetrate the resistance, it might head towards 112 in the short run. However, the daily chart remains positive as long as the index is trading above 109.60.

Pivot Point: 113.25

October 11th Daily Analysis

Strong U.S. labor data and an expectation of inflation figures on Thursday to remain stubbornly high have all but dashed bets on anything but high interest rates through 2023 and are driving the dollar back toward multi-decade highs.

Risk appetite was also hurt on Tuesday after Russia rained missiles upon Ukraine’s cities on Monday in retaliation for the blast that damaged the only bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Technically:
The index is trading at the resistance level 113.25 which may cause high level of volatility. However, there will be two scenarios at this level. The first one, if the index broke above 113.25 it will probably head towards 114 and 114.30. on the other hand, if the index failed to penetrate the resistance, it might head towards 112 on the short run. However, the daily chart remains positive as long as the index is trading above 109.60.

Pivot Point: 113.25

October 10th Daily Analysis

The dollar held its ground as investors set their sights on data later in the week. Traders expect the data to show red-hot inflation after a strong U.S. labor market reinforced bets on higher interest rates.

U.S. unemployment unexpectedly fell last month and inflation data due on Thursday is expected to show headline inflation at a hot 8.1% year-on-year. Policymakers’ preferred core inflation is seen rising to 6.5%.

Technically:
The index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction hit 111.00. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows strong resistance between 112.30 and 112.80. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI on the daily chart.

Pivot Point: 112.75

October 07th Daily Analysis

The dollar held onto strong overnight gains on Friday, buoyed by hawkish Federal Reserve speakers and as investors looked to a key jobs report later in the day for clues on how much further U.S. rates would need to rise.

The U.S. dollar index firmed to 112.22, after rising nearly 1% overnight, moving away from a low of 110.05 hits earlier in the week. All eyes now turn to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, with economists forecasting 248,000 jobs to have been added last month, compared with 315,000 in August.

Technically:
Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction hit 111.00. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows strong resistance below 112.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI on the daily chart. The index remains positive as long as it is trading above 109.25.

Pivot Point: 112.05

October 06th Daily Analysis

Traders remain optimistic as mixed U.S. ADP and ISM Services PMI doused expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes. However, it has barely impacted the market pricing of a 75 bps November Fed rate increase.

Despite the renewed upside in the major, EURUSD bulls remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukraine crisis. The European Union (EU) backed new sanctions against Russia, including the oil price cap on Wednesday.

EURUSD was down 0.45% at $0.9938 while it remains negative on the daily chart as long as it trades below the parity levels.

Pivot Point: 0.9910

October 05th Daily Analysis

The dollar steadied on Wednesday after a sharp rate rise in New Zealand poured cold water over hopes for a pause or slowdown in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s intentions for aggressive hikes.

The dollar index was down about 4% since hitting a record high of 114.78 last week, steadied at 110.30.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction that hit 111.00. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows strong resistance below 112.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI on the daily chart.

The index remains positive as long as it is trading above 109.25, otherwise, in the case of breaking below this level it is expected to change direction. On the other hand, the hourly chart shows a continuation to the downtrend. The index is seen heading to 109.90 based on the current readings.

Pivot Point: 110.50

October 04th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar lost some support from a slide in Treasury yields overnight after local economic data showed a slowdown in manufacturing, hinting that aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes are already being felt. Meanwhile, the dollar index was unchanged at 111.55, near its lowest level in a week. However, it skyrocketed to a two-decade high of 114.78 last Wednesday.

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) survey showed U.S. manufacturing activity was the slowest in nearly two and a half years in September as new orders contracted, with a measure of factory gate inflation decelerating for a sixth consecutive month.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction that hit 111.00 while technical indicators confirm.

Meanwhile, the daily chart shows strong resistance below 112.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI on the daily chart.

Pivot Point: 111.10

October 03th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trading Monday, while sterling also gained after the U.K. government agreed to water down its plans for unfunded tax cuts. The Dollar Index edged higher to 112.13, close to the one-week low of 111.64 seen late last week.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction that hit 112.50 while technical indicators confirm.

Meanwhile, the daily chart shows no strong resistance below 115.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI.

Pivot Point: 112.00

September 29th Daily Analysis

An easing dollar and Treasury yields came as a major boost to metal markets on Wednesday, with the greenback retreating sharply from a 20-year high, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from a 12-year peak. But the dollar now appeared to have stemmed some of its losses and was trading well above its Wednesday lows. It also remained close to its 2022 peaks.

A rising dollar, propped up by U.S. lending rates, was the biggest headwind to gold prices this year, pulling them off two-year highs and into an extended losing spree. Traders are now waiting to see if the decline in the dollar will be sustained, or if it’s just another blip before more upward movement. The factors that boosted the greenback- elevated inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve- are still in play.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after the correction. The hourly chart is bouncing after the correction that hit 112.50 while technical indicators confirm.

Meanwhile, the daily chart shows no strong resistance below 115.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI.

Pivot Point: 113.70

September 28th Daily Analysis

Markets forced the dollar to a fresh two-decade peak on Wednesday as rising global interest rates fed recession worries, while sterling languished near all-time lows on fears over Britain’s radical tax cut plans. The U.S. dollar index rose about 0.5% to hit a new high of 114.70 in Asia trade. Meanwhile, the relentless upward rally of the dollar came as benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4% for the first time since 2010, topping at 4.004%. The two-year yields stood at 4.2891%.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after exceeding the 114 level. However, the hourly chart shows support above 114.20 and strong resistance at 114.80. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows no strong resistance below 115.30. On the other hand, technical indicators show a possible continuation of the uptrend on MACD figures and a horizontal trend signal on the RSI.

Pivot Point: 114.30

September 27th Daily Analysis

The dollar index was at 112.39, down 0.7% on the day, with the decline in the safe haven broadly in line with a recovery in markets’ sentiment towards riskier assets, which also boosted European stocks and U.S. share futures.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after exceeding the 114 level. However, despite the slowdown on the hourly chart towards 113, the technical indicators remain positive and signal a bullish trend after the correction to 112.90.

Pivot Point: 113.60

September 26th Daily Analysis

The dollar index reached 114.58 for the first time since May 2002 before easing to 113.73, 0.52% higher than the end of last week. Weakness in major currencies pushed the dollar index to touch a new 20-year high on Monday, as the greenback continued to benefit from safe-haven buying.

Rising U.S. interest rates have boosted the reserve currency this year and are likely to keep it elevated in the near term. The Fed signaled last week that U.S. interest rates are set to rise even further this year, likely ending 2022 at a 16-year high of 4.4%.

Technically, the index remains positive on both the daily and hourly charts after exceeding the 114 level. However, despite the slowdown on the hourly chart towards 113, the technical indicators remain positive and signal a bullish trend after the correction to 112.90.

Pivot Point: 113.00

September 23th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trading Friday, remaining in demand after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, while the yen was buoyant after the intervention of Japanese authorities.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, edged 0.1% higher to 111.248, just below the two-decade high of 111.81 it hit in the previous session.

The index gained further momentum on both the daily and hourly charts, which built higher support. The daily chart shows support at 109.90 and 110.50 confirmed by the readings of the moving averages and MACD. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows additional support levels between the current and daily levels at 111.30 and 111.05.

Pivot Point: 111.80

September 22th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar jumped to a new 20-year high against a basket of currencies after the Federal Reserve hit a more hawkish than expected tone. The dollar index rose 1% to 111.47to record its highest level since June 2002. Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged to an 11-year high.

The index gained further momentum on both the daily and hourly charts, which built higher support. The daily chart shows support at 109.90 and 110.50 confirmed by the readings of the moving averages and MACD. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows additional support levels between the current levels and the daily levels at 111.30 and 111.05.

Pivot Point: 111.30

September 20th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged lower in early sessions but remained near a 20-year high as the market geared up for another aggressive rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Federal Reserve starts its latest two-day policy-setting meeting later today and is set to continue its policy of super-sized interest rate hikes to try and rein in overheated inflation.

The index maintains the momentum towards 109.90 on the hourly chart while the Bollinger bands show resistance at these levels. Meanwhile, the moving averages show support at 109.60 at the cross between the 20 and 55 periods MA.

Pivot Point: 109.50

September 19th Daily Analysis

The dollar lingered near a two-decade top on major peers on Monday, ahead of a week loaded with market central bank decisions. The dollar index was 0.2% stronger this morning at 109.84, converging after recording its highest levels in 20 years. Currently, markets have priced in at least another 75-basis point increase for this week’s FOMC meeting, but a full-size percentage point remains possible.

The index maintains the momentum towards 109.90 on the hourly chart while the Bollinger bands show resistance at these levels. Meanwhile, the moving averages show support at 109.60 at the cross between the 20 and 55 periods MA.

Pivot Point: 109.80

September 12th Daily Analysis

The dollar index fell 0.2% as the focus turned to U.S. CPI inflation data for August tomorrow. Inflation in the world’s largest economy is expected to have eased further from highs hit this year, a trend that may encourage the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate hikes.

While U.S. CPI inflation did ease slightly in the past month, it remained pinned near 40-year highs by elevated food and fuel costs. But with fuel costs now easing from record highs hit earlier this year, inflation may see more signs of cooling.

The dollar index is trading at the lower band of the Bollinger bands after breaking below the support at 108.00 and signals a possibility to hit 107.50 on the hourly chart. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a high probability of reaching 106.30. Technical indicators read a rebound as RSI is below 30 while MACD is converging at 107.85.

Pivot Point: 107.80

September 09th Daily Analysis

The dollar took a breather from its surging rally on Friday as markets digested yet more hawkish Fed speak, while the euro hung on to parity, helped by an outsized rate hike from the European Central Bank. Currency movement overnight was calm for once even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s aggressive stance against inflation, which reinforced the greenback’s dominance.

This morning, the U.S. dollar index was down to 108.72 before bouncing a little towards 108.90. Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury yield has recovered to a 3.304% high on the day from a low of 3.201%. The two-year yield reached a high of 3.506% from a low of 3.404% and is currently up 1.45% on the day.

Technically, the dollar index shows further decline on the short term but remains positive as an overall trend. The moving averages on the daily chart show support at 108.50 and 107.05 on the daily chart. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement shows support at 108.70, 107.60 and 107.10 on the same timeframe. However, the hourly chart shows a possible negative fluctuation towards 108.40.

Pivot Point: 108.85

September 08th Daily Analysis

The Dollar Index traded 0.2% lower to 109.630, retreating from its 20 year low of 110.79. Attention will be on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a Cato Institute conference later in the session, with Fed officials soon due to enter into a blackout period before the U.S. central bank’s September 20-21 meeting.

Technically, the index remains strong despite the fluctuations in the uptrend. Technical indicators show a possibility of a slowdown but also show strong support above 110.25. RSI moves flat near 70 while the MACD remains on the top.

Pivot Point: 109.50

September 07th Daily Analysis

The dollar will remain solid for the rest of the year as U.S. interest rates rise and the economy outperforms its peers. Backed by a strong U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve has ramped up its fight against inflation by hiking interest rates much quicker than most of its peers.

That has helped the dollar turn in one of its best performances in at least a decade. The dollar index was up around 15% for the year and touched a fresh two-decade high of 110.67 on Tuesday.

Technically, the index remains strong despite the fluctuations in the uptrend. Technical indicators show a possibility of a slowdown but also show strong support above 110.25. RSI moves flat near 70 while the MACD remains on the top.

Pivot Point: 110.40

September 06th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar index rally appears to have paused, as market participants await more details on the path of U.S. monetary policy. However, expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve kept the dollar underpinned around 20-year highs. Rising interest rates have weighed heavily on gold prices this year, as traders sought better yields from the dollar and Treasuries. The Fed is also broadly expected to maintain its pace of rate hikes this month.

The overall trend remains positive heading to exceeding the current high levels. However, the momentum slowed which might lead prices to decline below 109.70. Bollinger bands show resistance at 110.40 and possible support at 109.35.

Pivot Point: 109.50

September 05th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar rose to a new two-decade high in early European trade before fluctuating lower later in the session. The Dollar Index traded 0.5% higher at 110.255, the highest level in 20 years.

The demand for the U.S. dollar has increased on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue with its aggressive monetary tightening, especially after the release of the better-than-expected nonfarm payroll data on Friday.

The overall trend remains positive heading to exceeding the current high levels. However, the momentum slowed this morning which might lead prices to decline towards 109.70. Bollinger bands show resistance at 110.40 and possible support at 109.70.

Pivot Point: 109.90

September 01st Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar index slid lower during the early trades moving just below its two decades high recorded earlier this week. The index was traded at 108.66 this morning, 0.1% below the high at 109.48.

However, the latest JOLTS report on job openings pointed to continued strength in the labor market despite the string of large rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Fed’s members’ hawkish tone pointed to a possible 0.75% interest rate hike in September.

The overall trend remains positive despite the slowdown in the uptrend momentum. The index has built support above 108.40 on the daily chart. However, the momentum is slowing but it remains strong enough to target new high levels. The hourly chart is moving horizontally around the level of 108.80. Technical indicators show support between 108.40 and 108.80 but also indicate lower buying bullish pressure.

Pivot Point: 108.80

august 31st Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Tuesday, falling back from a 20-year peak, as attention turns towards Europe, with Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation data likely to point to an aggressive ECB interest rate hike next month.

Meanwhile, Market participants will be watching the nonfarm payrolls report and employment data carefully to try to figure out whether the Fed can pull off an economic slowdown without triggering a recession. The Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower at 108.733, after dropping from its 20-year high at 109.48.

Technically, the index dropped this morning from 108.70 to 108.40 in one hourly candle to test the support at 108.40 for the third time since the last session. Furthermore, the daily chart remains positive targeting 109.80 and 110.20 if the resistance at 109.40 was penetrated. However, the hourly chart shows a slight slowdown and decline over the last few hours in the chart.

Pivot Point: 108.40

August 29th Daily Analysis

Fed’s chairman’s hawkish tone increased the demand for the dollar pushing the U.S. Dollar Index to a new two-decade high above 109.40. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled interest rates would be kept higher for longer to bring down skyrocketing inflation.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries were also up on Monday on the back of Powell’s comments, with the two-year yields rising to 3.4890%, the highest since late 2007, while the 10-year yields stood at around 3.1229%.

Technically, the dollar index remains positive overall despite the slowdown after recording the two-decade high above 109.40. Furthermore, the daily chart remains positive targeting 109.80 and 110.20 if the resistance at 109.40 was penetrated. However, the hourly chart shows a slight slowdown and decline over the last few hours in the chart.

PIVOT POINT: 109.00

august 26th Daily Analysis

The dollar held onto recent gains against the euro and sterling on Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s widely-anticipated speech, which traders hope will offer clues on the U.S. central bank’s tightening plans.

Investors will see Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium at 14:00 GMT for insight into how aggressively the Fed still plans to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the dollar index gained 0.1%, staying just below a 20-year high hit earlier this week as focus turned to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address to the economic forum.

Technically, the index lost the intraday momentum falling from its previous peak to the support at 108.25 at the time of writing this report. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement shows the support too far from the current levels on the hourly chart at 107.40. However, the price action shows support at 108.80 and 108.40. Also, technical indicators show a possibility of a drop due to the emotional resistance the index is facing at 109.20.

Pivot Point: 108.50

august 25th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar slipped back from a near two-decade peak against major currencies this morning. Moreover, investors are waiting for the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell the following day for new hints on the course of monetary policy. The dollar index shed 0.19% to 108.42 but remained not far from its highest since September 2002 at 109.29 it touched in mid-July.

Technically, the index lost the intraday momentum falling from its previous peak to the support at 108.25 at the time of writing this report. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement shows the support too far from the current levels on the hourly chart at 107.40. However, the price action shows support at 108.80 and 108.40. Also, technical indicators show a possibility of a drop due to the emotional resistance the index is facing at 109.20.

PIVOT POINT: 108.30

August 24th Daily Analysis

The dollar index rose after the minutes, as did Treasury yields. The Fed hiked rates by 0.75% last month, with traders now split over a 0.5% or 0.75% hike in September. While data last week did show that U.S. inflation had likely peaked, Fed members indicated that it was still far too high to consider reducing the pace of monetary policy tightening.

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, jumped to 106.90 right after breaking the previous resistance at 106.40. However, the index retreated towards 106.40 but remains positive.

PIVOT POINT: 106.60

august 23th Daily Analysis

The dollar index traded the majority of the morning sessions below the resistance at 106.50 and slightly above the hourly chart support at 106.30. However, the hourly chart shows a continuation of the uptrend started on August 11 from the previously analyzed double bottom pattern.

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the index is struggling to penetrate the resistance range of 106.40 and 106.50, which slowed the momentum and flattened the readings of the technical indicators.

PIVOT POINT: 106.50

august 19th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar hit a one-month high versus its major peers this morning as Fed officials continued to mention the need for further interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.14% to 107.63, after touching 107.72 which is its highest since July 18. The index is on track for a 1.86% rally this week, which would be its best weekly performance since June 12.

The U.S. dollar index kept restored the momentum on the daily chart after bouncing from 104.50 on August 11 and breaking above the resistance at 106.40. Additionally, the moving average for 20 days also confirms a support at 106.10 on the daily chart with strong buying activities shown in the RSI indicator.

Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows a light resistance at 107.60 that reflects on the RSI and MACD readings. However, as long as the larger time frames are confirming the continuation of the uptrend, the hourly chart indications might be speculative in use.

PIVOT POINT: 107.60

 

August 18th Daily Analysis

The dollar index rose after the minutes, as did Treasury yields. The Fed hiked rates by 0.75% last month, with traders now split over a 0.5% or 0.75% hike in September. While data last week did show that U.S. inflation had likely peaked, Fed members indicated that it was still far too high to consider reducing the pace of monetary policy tightening.

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, jumped to 106.90 right after breaking the previous resistance at 106.40. However, the index retreated towards 106.40 but remains positive.

PIVOT POINT: 106.60

august 17th Daily Analysis

The dollar index traded the majority of the morning sessions below the resistance at 106.50 and slightly above the hourly chart support at 106.30. However, the hourly chart shows a continuation of the uptrend started on August 11 from the previously analyzed double bottom pattern.

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the index is struggling to penetrate the resistance range of 106.40 and 106.50, which slowed the momentum and flattened the readings of the technical indicators.

PIVOT POINT: 106.50

august 16th Daily Analysis

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, held steady at 106.51, just below the previous session’s peak of 106.55, the strongest since last week.

The global safety bid was driven by a group of weak world economic indicators. Data showed U.S. single-family homebuilders’ confidence, while New York state factory activity fell in August to its lowest levels since near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technically:
The dollar index traded the majority of the morning sessions below the resistance at 106.50 and slightly above the hourly chart support at 106.30. However, the hourly chart shows a continuation to the uptrend started on August 11 from the previously analyzed double bottom pattern.

Meanwhile on the daily chart, the index is struggling to penetrate the resistance range of 106.40 and 106.50, which slowed the momentum and flattened the technical indicators readings.

PIVOT POINT: 106.40

august 12th Daily Analysis

The dollar was slightly lower on Thursday following a 1% loss the previous day when data showed U.S. inflation was not as hot as anticipated in July, prompting traders to dial back future rate hike expectations by the Federal Reserve.

Investors slashed bets on the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive time to help tame decades-high inflation when it meets in September after a report on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July. The dollar recorded its biggest decline in five months following the report as traders readjusted their forecasts to factor in the chance that inflation may have peaked.

Technically:
The index bounced from the support range around 104.50 on the hourly chart and formd a double bottom which led the index to gain towards 105.20. Additionally, technical indica

august 11th Daily Analysis

The weak dollar was the clincher for those seeking advance in the market while the Dollar Index hit a one-month low of 104.51. The dollar tumbled after the Labour Department reported that the Consumer Price Index rose by 8.5% during the year to July versus a 9.1% annual expansion in June that marked its most in 41 years.

Economists polled by U.S. media had expected an 8.7% growth in the annual CPI reading for last month. The index posted zero growth in July, versus an expansion of 1.3% in June.

Technically:
The U.S. dollar index declined sharply yesterday breaking the support at 105.00 on the daily time frame. Meanwhile, the index remains to hold to the uptrend on the daily chart as long as it is trading above 103.80. The index is not seen changing the trend direction unless it traded below 103.80 which is technically far target.

august 10th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar index steadied on Wednesday as traders are waiting for a key U.S. report on inflation to provide hints to the Federal Reserve’s plans for future monetary tightening.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released later today, with markets watching for signs that inflation eased in July despite last week’s unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs numbers.

Technically:
The U.S. dollar index remains to hold above 106.00 and moves above the support range between 105.90 and 106.00 while keeping the uptrend on the daily chart. The index is not seen changing the trend direction unless it traded below 103.80 which is technically far target.

Technical indicators show a possibility for fluctuation and a chance to trade below 105.90 for a short while.

PIVOT POINT: 106.20

august 9th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged lower in early trades today, embracing a horizontal pattern ahead of the release of the key U.S. consumer inflation data. The Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower at 106.10, dropping further back from Friday’s peak of 106.93, the strongest level since July 28.

Traders will be eying the U.S. consumer price index release on Wednesday, which will influence the next fed decision. However, a large fall in the CPI release could provide sufficient evidence that inflation has peaked to persuade the Fed to relax its aggressive tightening path, and the dollar has edged lower in tight trading ranges ahead of the number.

Technically:
The U.S. dollar index remains holding around 106.00 and moving inside the support range between 105.90 and 106.00 while keeping the uptrend on the daily chart. 

august 8th Daily Analysis

The dollar index stood at 106.77, while traders currently see a high probability the Fed will continue the pace of 75 basis-point interest-rate increases for its next policy decision on September 21. The focus this week will be on the U.S. consumer price index on Wednesday to see if it will solidify the odds for super-sized rate rises.

The 10-year yield stood at 2.8470%, sticking close to the two-week high of 2.8690% touched Friday. The negative spread between the two- and 10-year yields was 42 basis points, having hit 45 basis points on Friday, the most since August 2000. An inverted yield curve is widely interpreted as a pre-cursor to a recession.

Technically:
The dollar index remains positive on the daily chart as long as it commits to the uptrend above 105.60. however, 

august 5th Daily Analysis

The dollar inched higher on Friday but struggled to recoup its losses after falling by its sharpest pace in two weeks, as investors remained on tenterhooks ahead of U.S. jobs data and amid growing worries about a recession. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.15% to 105.86, after sliding 0.68% overnight to record the largest fall since July 19.

Investors await the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due today which will provide hints of how the U.S. economy is faring. Economists expect an increase of 250,000 jobs for the month of July, after 372,000 were added in June. However, signs of softening in the labour market could already be underway, as overnight data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week.

Technically:

august 4th Daily Analysis

The dollar index surged nearly 1% in the past two days after hawkish comments from two Federal Reserve members drove up expectations of sharper interest rate hikes this year.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans both signalled that inflation is yet to cool in the country, and the Fed was likely to raise rates even further to combat rising prices. A potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions had also driven safe haven demand for the greenback.

Technically:
The hourly chart remains negative for the time being as it is moving below the trend line since July 28 despite bulls tries to break back above that line. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a high possibility of continuation towards the strong support at 103.55, which will raise two scenarios.

In the first scenario, if the index bounced from 103.55 it will most likely continue the 

august 3rd Daily Analysis

The dollar stuck in choppy trade on Wednesday, after its biggest surge for weeks as Fed officials talked up the potential for further aggressive interest rate hikes. On Tuesday, Fed officials Mary Daly and Charles Evans signalled that they and their colleagues remain resolute and “completely united” over getting rates up to a level that will more significantly curb economic activity.

The U.S. dollar index traded about 0.3% lower by the Asian afternoon to 106.120, amid a hint of relief that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan brought few surprises.

Technically:
The U.S. dollar index continues the secondary downtrend after breaking below the upward channel at 106.20 on the daily chart. The hourly chart’s index remains negative despite the support at 105.40 and 104.60. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a high possibility of continuation towards the strong support at 103.55, which will raise two scenarios.

In the first scenario, if the 

august 2nd Daily Analysis

The dollar stuck in choppy trade on Wednesday, after its biggest surge for weeks as Fed officials talked up the potential for further aggressive interest rate hikes. On Tuesday, Fed officials Mary Daly and Charles Evans signalled that they and their colleagues remain resolute and “completely united” over getting rates up to a level that will more significantly curb economic activity.

The U.S. dollar index traded about 0.3% lower by the Asian afternoon to 106.120, amid a hint of relief that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan brought few surprises.

Technically:
The U.S. dollar index continues the secondary downtrend after breaking below the upward channel at 106.20 on the daily chart. The hourly chart’s index remains negative despite the support at 105.40 and 104.60. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows a high possibility of continuation towards the strong support at 103.55, which will raise two scenarios.

 

august 1st Daily Analysis

The dollar sank on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the U.S. economy at risk of recession. Meanwhile, the dollar index edged down 0.18% to 105.80, slipping back toward Friday’s low of 105.53, a level not seen since July 5.

Technically, the U.S. dollar index broke below the uptrend line at 106.00 on the daily chart but it is expected to bounce back upwards unless it broke below the support at 103.65. Meanwhile, the index is forming a support at 105.50. Technical indicators on the daily chart signal a high probability of further decline towards the range of 105.10 and 104.50.

PIVOT POINT: 105.60

july 29th Daily Analysis

U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 0.9% annualized rate, which followed a first-quarter contraction of 1.6%. Meanwhile, some market experts expect the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes to half a point at the next meeting in September. The dollar index edged 0.03% higher to 106.25 this morning, after dipping to a more than three-week low of 106.05 on Thursday.

Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trading at the uptrend line on the daily chart and might close the day below it near the support at 105.10. Technical indicators on the daily chart signal a high probability of further decline towards the range of 105.10 and 104.50.

july 28th Daily Analysis

The dollar lost ground on Thursday as market participants reflected the expected hike of 75 bp. Additionally, markets are bracing for another hike as Fed’s statement hinted. Meanwhile, the dollar index dropped by 0.31% to 106.12, hovering just above its lowest mark since July 5.

The moves come after the Fed increased its policy target interest rate on Wednesday by three-quarters of a percent for the second month in a row. Traders focused in particular on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who dropped guidance on the size of the next rate rise. That, in turn, heightened the possibility that the central bank could soon slow the pace of hikes.

 

july 27th Daily Analysis

The dollar index was down by 0.14% at 107.04 on Wednesday, as traders gear up for a crucial Federal Reserve policy decision scheduled for later in the day. Investors are waiting to see the extent the U.S. central bank will go to combat inflation, as concerns remain that aggressive Fed rate hikes will instead weigh on growth.

Policymakers are mulling over consumer prices running at 40-year highs, along with a recent batch of weak economic data. On Tuesday, U.S. consumer confidence tumbled to its lowest mark in almost a year and a half, while new home price growth and sales of new houses both slowed. Markets have largely priced in a 75-basis point increase, with only a small chance of a jumbo 100 basis point rise.

The U.S. dollar index traded slightly lower at 107 during the early sessions as expectations of the U.S. rate 

july 26th Daily Analysis

The dollar held just below multi-decade peaks on Tuesday as traders awaited a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, traders also wondered whether hints of a slowing economy might prompt a shift away from Fed’s focus on inflation. The Fed ends its two-day meeting tomorrow while traders have been dialing back expectations about the rate hike.

The U.S. dollar index traded slightly lower at 106.270 during the early sessions as expectations of the U.S. rate increase provided support. The U.S. Dollar index remained positive in all time frames, although it slightly slipped this morning. On the hourly chart, the index is hovering in a horizontal fashion building momentum above the support at 106.20.

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the trendline 

july 25th Daily Analysis

The dollar moved on a firm footing during the Asian session, as traders braced for a sharp U.S. interest rate hike this week and looked for safety as data points to a weakening global economy.

The greenback was up slightly against most majors during the early trades as the Fed concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and markets priced for a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike.

On the hourly chart, technical indicators show a possibility of continuation of the downtrend as RSI is heading to 30 while MACD shows a slight tendency for downward movement. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows a volatile trend between 106 and 106.8. However, the index signals a possible resistance below 106.60.

PIVOT POINT: 106.60

july 22nd Daily Analysis

The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia after the European Central Bank raised interest rates more than expected on Thursday as concerns about runaway inflation trumped worries about growth.

The U.S. dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.01% to 106.91.

The dollar was weighed down overnight by a decline in Treasury yields after data showed a slump in factory activity and a rise in applications for unemployment benefits. This signals that the economy is already feeling the effects of aggressive U.S. Federal 

july 21st Daily Analysis

The greenback moves in a slow upward fashion maintaining the overall positive outlook. However, market participants are taking extra caution prior to the European interest rate decision.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated between red and green during the early sessions, but it remains positive on the daily chart. However, the hourly chart shows tension between 106.50 and 106.80. The trading momentum was offset as fears of recession rise.

On the hourly chart, technical indicators show a possibility of continuation to the downtrend as RSI 

july 20th Daily Analysis

The greenback retreated further on Wednesday as major currencies extended their overnight gains with lower inflationary fears. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.14% to 106.52, well off its two-decade peak of 109.29 last week. The dollar retreat has also coincided with reduced expectations of a supersized 100-basis-point rate hike at next week’s Federal Reserve policy review.

The U.S. dollar index was green early in the day but went back as market liquidity declines. The trading momentum also declined as fears of recession rise. The index traded in lower volume during the early session below the support at 106.20.

 

july 19th Daily Analysis

The dollar declined and hovered just above a one-week low as investors expect a 100 bp rate hike. The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.11% to 107.49. Data showed that U.S. inflation was at a four-decade high and continued to accelerate further. However, figures from last Friday showed an easing of consumer inflation expectations to the lowest in a year.

The U.S. dollar index was green early in the day but went back as market liquidity declines. The trading momentum also declined as fears of

july 18th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index retreats below its multi decade high as markets discounted the expectations of Fed interest rates hike. Traders raised bets that the Fed could raise rates by 100 basis points when it meets on July 26-27 as inflation rate is at 4 decades high.

The index is trading downward between the supports at 107.80 and 107.40. However, technical indicators show further decline while the moving averages show a possibility of a rebound. 

july 15th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar resumed its rise this morning, pushed by expectations for faster Fed policy tightening and safe-haven flows amid growing fears of a recession. However, U.S. consumer price figures showed inflation already at four-decade highs.

Traders raised bets that the Fed could raise rates by 100 basis points when it meets on July 26-27. A hike of at least 75 basis points is seen as almost certain.

 

july 14th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar resumed its rise this morning, pushed by expectations for faster Fed policy tightening and safe-haven flows amid growing fears of a recession. However, U.S. consumer price figures showed inflation already at four-decade highs.

Traders raised bets that the Fed could raise rates by 100 basis points when it meets on July 26-27. A hike of at least 75 basis points is seen as 

july 13th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar fell below its 20 years high and trading is forming horizontal pattern on the hourly chart. Additionally, the moving averages are closing to each other and are expected to cross near 107.80 indicating a critical level. However, the daily chart is not confirming the continuation as the it closed a short candle in the previous day.

 

july 12th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak as investors are seeking safety. Market participants expect further aggressive rate hikes by the Fed with the expectation of higher inflation figures. Meanwhile, the dollar index was 0.25% higher at 108.47, its highest since October 2002.

The USDX continues to fly on 

 

july 7th Daily Analysis

The dollar shook slightly this morning despite expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes that grew over the hawkish minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The U.S. dollar remains strong for the medium term due to aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate rise expectations and safe-haven appeal stemming from global recession fears.

The daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in the long term towards a new high. Technical indicators can’t confirm the continuation while moving averages show declining signals. The hourly chart shows an upward movement but 

july 6th Daily Analysis

The dollar stood tall on Wednesday, holding at a 20-year peak against the euro and multi-month highs against other major peers as higher gas prices and political uncertainty renewed recession fears and sent investors scrambling to the safe-haven currency.

The daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in the long term towards a new high. Technical indicators can’t confirm the continuation while moving averages show horizontal signals. The hourly chart shows an upward movement but keeps the tendency for a slight decline on the way.

PIVOT POINT: 106.40

july 5th Daily Analysis

The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, gaining support from a strong rebound in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields pushed past 2.959% after reopening from a holiday, from the lowest since May at 2.7910% on Friday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index stabilized above 105.20 and targets a new high.

The daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in the long term towards a new all-time high. Technical indicators can’t confirm the continuation while moving averages show horizontal signals. The hourly chart shows an upward movement but keeps the tendency for a slight 

july 4th Daily Analysis

The dollar kept trade-sensitive currencies pinned near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth.

The U.S. dollar index stood at 105.100, not far below last month’s two-decade high of 105.790. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s much-watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualized -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

Technically:
The daily chart 

july 1st Daily Analysis

The dollar index slid 0.32% overnight after the spending data, only to rally on Friday as that same data drove declines in Asian equities. Additionally, the dollar index is on track for a 0.75% gain, which would be its best week in four.

The Fed has lifted the policy rate by 150 basis points since March, with half of that coming last month in the central bank’s biggest hike since 1994. The market is betting on another of the same magnitude at the end of this month.

Technically:
The daily chart indicates a 

june 30th Daily Analysis

The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, after central bank chiefs signaled a resolution to bring down inflation. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.06% to 105.04.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European and U.K. counterparts warned that inflation could be long-lasting during the European Central Bank (ECB)’ s annual forum in Portugal. He added that it was important to bring down inflation.

 

june 29th Daily Analysis

The Dollar Index was up 0.01% to 104.51 this morning in Asia, with investors considering the risk of a recession caused by major central banks’ interest rate hikes. Additionally, inflation worries are still on investors’ radar as U.S. conference board (CB) consumer confidence fell to a 16-month low in June as high inflation left consumers to worry about a slowing economy.

Technically:
The daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in the long term under the condition of holding above 104. Technical indicators can’t confirm the continuation while moving averages show horizontal signals. The hour

june 28th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged lower versus major rivals as investors weighed expectations on inflation and interest rate hikes. The dollar index struck a two-decade high of 105.79 this month and was last traded at 103.93.

Meanwhile, the daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in the long term under the condition of holding above 104. Technical indicators can’t confirm the continuation while moving averages show horizontal signals.

The hourly chart shows a horizontal movement with a tendency for a decline if the prices broke below the support at 103.50.

june 27th Daily Analysis

The USDX opened lower today and traded horizontally around 104 as recission fears were intense during the G-7 meeting. But it retains its horizontal movement on the hourly chart between 38.2 and 61.8 on Fibonacci retracement ranging between 103.85 and 104.40.

Meanwhile, the USDX keeps pressuring the critical support at 104 and flagging a higher possibility of falling towards 103.10 if the current level didn’t hold. Additionally, hourly chart price action indicates a further decline while the technical indicators are neutral.

Meanwhile, the daily chart indicates a continuation of the uptrend in 

june 24th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar slipped against its major peers during the Asian session and is set for its first weekly decline this month. Investors assess the path for Federal Reserve policy and whether aggressive rate hikes would trigger a recession.

The dollar index edged down 0.07% to 104.33. However, Markets now betting on more cautious policy action from the Fed after another expected 75 basis point rate increase in July.

Technically:
The USDX traded lower today to trade below 104 as recession fears increase. 

june 23rd Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar stayed under tension as it looked set to extend declines against major peers. The U.S. Dollar was hurt by Treasury yields floundering near two-week lows amid rising concerns of a recession.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six key rivals, slipped 0.07% to 104.14, bringing its decline since Friday to 0.44%. It has fallen 1.54% from the two-decade peak of 105.79 reached on June 15, when the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points – the biggest hike since 1994.

Technically:
The USDX traded lower today to 

june 22nd Daily Analysis

The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, investors now await cues on monetary policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair’s testimonies to the Congress. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged up 0.15% to 104.377.

Technically:
The USDX traded higher today as investors are seeking safe shelter from the inflationary risks. Additionally, chart shows further increase and signals a breakout towards 105.40 under the condition of penetrating above 104.60.

PIVOT POINT: 104.40

june 20th Daily Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index traded 0.75 points lower this morning reaching below the moving averages level. Meanwhile, moving averages intersect at 104.40 on the hourly chart indicating an intraday decline.

On the daily chart, the index retains its uptrend and increasing the momentum of the rise. In the meantime, the technical indicators are signal a slower movement.

PIVOT POINT: 104.00

june 17th Daily Analysis

The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, clawed back from a one-week low after sliding for two days with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike decision. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.57% to 104.014.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its biggest interest rate hike since 1994. On the data front, U.S. initial 

 

june 16th Daily Analysis

The Fed’s decision drove longer-dated U.S. government bond yields lower and nudged the dollar 0.15% off two-decade highs to 104.78. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points to tame inflation after the U.S. consumer price index rose 8.6% in May, the largest since 1994.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will deliver another big hike in July, but “today’s 75 basis-point 

june 15th Daily Analysis

The dollar held near its overnight 20-year peak on Wednesday ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting at which markets are pricing in an outsized 75 basis point hike.
The key U.S. currency index was at 105.3 this morning after it hit its strongest since December 2002 at 105.65 on Tuesday. Market pricing indicates a 99.7% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s meeting which concludes later today, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, up from only 3.9% a week ago.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index hit the resistance at 105.13 to record the highest level in 20 years before retreating to 104.60 this morning. On the hourly chart, Fibonacci retracement shows a solid resistance at 105.10 and indicates a retreat towards 104.30-104.35. However, technical indicators on the hourly chart show more decline during the day.
On the daily chart, 20 and 55 period

june 14th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar carried a fresh 20-year peak on Tuesday as investors braced for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and a possible recession. In the meantime, markets have sped to bet on rapid hikes to face the unexpectedly sizzling inflation reading on Friday.
However, consecutive 75 basis point rate rises in June and July are close to fully priced, sending shockwaves across asset classes. The dollar has gained with yields and as investors seek shelter from the storm. The dollar index scaled a two-decade peak of 105.29 on Monday and held at that level in Asia.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index hit the resistance at 105.13 to record the highest level in 20 years before retreating to 104.60 this morning. On the hourly chart, Fibonacci retracement shows a solid resistance at 105.10 and indicates a retreat towards 104.30-104.35. However, technical indicators on the hourly chart show more decline during the

june 13th Daily Analysis

Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are pushing up the dollar against most peers. The dollar index was 0.3% up at 104.52, which is its highest in four weeks.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield touched 3.2% on Monday morning. The treasury benchmark gained nearly 12 basis points after U.S. inflation beat expectations. Furthermore, market participants expect the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively.
Technically:
The Dollar trades below the resistance at 104.80 as it recorded its highest in a month at 104.45. Price action shows the index returning to its uptrend on the daily chart, while the moving averages move in a steep slope below the current levels.
However, the hourly chart is showing a possibility of an intra-day decline. On the daily chart, 20 and 55 simple moving averages are moving below the current price levels pointing support formation at 102.60.
PIVOT POINT: 104.40

june 10th Daily Analysis

Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are pushing up the dollar against most peers. The dollar index was 0.3% up at 104.52, which is its highest in four weeks.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield touched 3.2% on Monday morning. The treasury benchmark gained nearly 12 basis points after U.S. inflation beat expectations. Furthermore, market participants expect the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively.
Technically:
The Dollar trades below the resistance at 104.80 as it recorded its highest in a month at 104.45. Price action shows the index returning to its uptrend on the daily chart, while the moving averages move in a steep slope below the current level

june 9th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar was down this morning in Asia. The European Central Bank meeting and its policy are the focus of the market today. The U.S. Dollar Index inched down 0.09% to 102.45.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index formed a declining pattern as bears formed resistance at 102.60, but the USDX remains trading above 102.30 for the time being. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the USDX is trying to break away from the declining trendline, but it remains bearish for the longer term.
On the hourly chart, 20 SMA and 55 SMA are moving below the current price levels pointing support formation.
PIVOT POINT: 102.40

june 8th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar index reverted from earlier highs and fell on Tuesday as Wall Street stocks erased initial declines amid growing hopes that inflation may have peaked.
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields hit over three weeks’ high overnight on concerns the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive policy. Additionally, while the Fed seeks to control inflation, it also eased tapering as inflation could slow the central bank’s hiking plans.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index formed a declining pattern as bears formed resistance at 102.60, but the USDX remains trading above 102.30 for the time being. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the USDX is trying to break away from the declining trendline, 

june 6th Daily Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined.
In May, the unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Technically:
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated between the resistance of 102.60 

june 3rd Daily Analysis

Market participants focus on the upcoming U.S. labor data that is due on Friday, which is considered crucial for the Fed rate anticipations. The upcoming employment report is likely to show the tight labor market, to shift to more modest payroll growth.
The Non-farm figures are likely to increase by about 325,000, 103,000 less than the previous month. While still strong, the projected advance would be the smallest in over a year. In the meantime, the unemployment rate is seen falling to a pandemic low of 3.5%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.4% from a month earlier.
Technically:
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated between the resistance of 102.60 and the support of 101.60. Meanwhile, 

june 1st Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar wobbled slightly yesterday but it returned to trade up this morning amid an increased tendency for safe havens. The Federal Reserve is set to start shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet while investors await the unemployment and non-farm data due on Friday.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index goes higher today breaking out of the downward channel and trading near 102 slightly below the resistance of 102.20. Additionally, the index trades at the 20 periods SMA and above the 55 periods SMA but price action indicates a likelihood of a rise if prices penetrated above 102.20. Technical indicators show a likelihood of further decline.
PIVOT POINT: 101.95

May 31st Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar wobbled slightly yesterday but it returned to trade up this morning amid an increased tendency for safe havens. The Federal Reserve is set to start shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet while investors await the unemployment and non-farm data due on Friday.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar index goes higher today breaking out of the downward channel and trading near 102 slightly below the resistance of 102.20. Additionally, the index trades at the 20 periods SMA and above the 55 periods SMA but price action indicates a likelihood of a rise if prices penetrated above 102.20. Technical indicators show a likelihood of further 

May 30th Daily Analysis

The dollar remains trading within its downward channel, as traders lowered Fed hike expectations amid signs the Fed might slow or pause its tightening cycle in the second half of the year.
Technically:
The U.S. dollar index is testing 101.43 for the second trading day flirting with its lowest rate in over a month. Additionally, the index still trading below the 20-day and 55-day moving average on the daily chart and hourly chart indicating a possibility for a further decline.
Likewise, the index is cementing its declining pattern on the hourly chart which targets 101.20 on the hourly chart. Technical indicators show a likelihood of further decline.
PIVOT POINT: 101.40

May 27th Daily Analysis

The dollar was set for its biggest weekly drop in nearly four months as traders lowered Federal Reserve rate hike expectations amid signs the U.S. central bank might slow or even pause its tightening cycle in the second half of the year.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, fell as low as 101.43 for the first time since April 25. On a weekly basis, it was down 1.3%, its biggest weekly drop since the first week of February.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar Index inched down 0.06% to 101.83 hovering near the lowest rate in a month. Additionally, the index still trading below the 20 day and 55 day moving average on the daily chart and hourly chart 

May 26th Daily Analysis

The dollar index settled around 102.03 after Fed minutes yesterday to rebound a little afterward. However, the dollar slowed during the early Asian session. Additionally, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic had already suggested earlier in the week that a pause might be the best course of action in September 2022 to monitor the effects on the economy following two more 50-basis-point hikes in June and July.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar Index inched down 0.06% to 101.83 hovering near the lowest rate in a month. Additionally, the index still trading below the 20 day and 55 day moving average on the daily chart and hourly chart indicating a possibility for a further 

May 25th Daily Analysis

Investors await the monetary policy outlook with worries of a potential recession caused by the tightening of the monetary policies. The minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released later today, investors are expecting more clues on whether the tightening would continue.
Technically:
The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.09% to 101.968 breaking its losing streak but remains to trade in a downtrend targeting 101.60 and 101.20. Additionally, the index still trading below the 20 day and 55 day moving average on the daily chart and hourly chart indicating a possibility for a further decline.
Likewise, the index forms a declining pattern on the hourly chart which 

May 24th Daily Analysis

The dollar index hits its lowest value in a month yesterday at 102.04 and remains to trade in a downtrend targeting 101.60 and 101.20. Additionally, the index still trading below the 20 day moving average on the daily chart and hourly chart indicating a possibility for a further decline. Furthermore, the index closed below the previous uptrend channel on the daily chart for five days.
Likewise, the index forms a declining pattern on the hourly chart which targets 102.50 unless it closed above the 20 hours moving average. Technical indicators are not providing clear signals which indicate the need to hold until there is a clear direction.
PIVOT POINT: 102.35

May 23rd Daily Analysis

The dollar index remains in a downtrend channel reaching the support between 102.60 and 102.50. Additionally, the index is trading below the 20 day moving average on the daily chart indicating a possibility for a further decline. Furthermore, the index closed below the previous uptrend channel on the daily chart for four days.
Likewise, the index forms a declining pattern on the hourly chart which targets 102.50 unless it closed above the 20 hours moving average. 

May 20th Daily Analysis

The dollar index failed to hold above its support above 103.60 and fell to touch 102.68 to be the lowest in two weeks. Additionally, the index traded below the 20 days moving average on the daily chart indicating a possibility for a further decline. However, the index remains in the positive channel in the long run unless it broke below 102.60.
Likewise, the index forms a declining pattern on the hourly chart which targets 102.50 unless it closed above the 20 hours moving average. 

May 19th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index started the fourth declining day in what is seen as a corrective movement trading around the support of 103.60. The long term remains positive above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.
On the daily chart, the index shows a slight possibility for a continuation of the uptrend. However, the hourly chart shows support around the current levels between 103.40 and 103.60.
PIVOT POINT: 103.60

May 18th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index started the fourth declining day in what is seen as a corrective movement trading slightly below the support of 103.60. On the daily chart, the long term remains positive above the 20-day moving average.
On the daily chart, the index shows a slight possibility for a continuation of the uptrend. However, the hourly chart shows support around the current levels between 103.40 and 103.60.
PIVOT POINT: 103.60

May 17th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar index is running into a corrective movement that appears on the daily chart, but the overall trend remains positive. The dollar retreated from its 20 years high under heavy selling pressure. Despite today’s retreat, the USDX cemented its long-term upward trend remaining above the support of 103.60 and forming a continuation pattern.
On the daily chart, the index shows a continuation pattern towards 105.30 under the condition that it never 

May 13th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar index remains near the highest level in over 20 years, but the index showed a slow down during the early trades. Despite today’s retreat, the USDX cemented its long-term upward trend closing above the support of 103.60 and forming a continuation pattern.
On the daily chart, the index shows a continuation pattern towards 105.30 under the condition that it never closes under 104.10. Otherwise, in case the index closed between 103.60 and 104.10 

May 12th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar index traded around its highest level in two decades at 104.23 amid the inflation data yesterday. The Greenback cemented its long-term upward trend closing above the support of 103.60 and forming a rising pattern.
Technically, the index cemented the strong support above 103.60 on the daily chart. However, on the hourly chart, technical indicators and trend lines expect the index to trade lower.

May 11th Daily Analysis

The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, but remained near a two-decade high, ahead of U.S. inflation that could indicate how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy.
Technically, the index established strong support at 103.60 on the daily chart but price action kept the possibility of a decline towards 102.70. However, on the hourly chart, technical indicators and trend lines 

May 9th Daily Analysis

he dollar hit a two-decade high on Monday as investors searched for safety and yield due to growing concerns over slowing global economic growth and rising interest rates. The U.S. Dollar index faced a hard time breaking above 103.60 before the Non-Farm Payroll data, while the USDX rebounded to trade above 104 during the Asian trades today.

May 6th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar index found a hard time breaking above 103.60 as the resistance intensified before the Non-Farm Payroll data.
Technically, after 7 days of trading below the resistance of 103.60, the index value remains expected to decline to 100.50. However, on the hourly chart, technical indicators and trend lines expect the index to hover around 103 during the day.

May 5th Daily Analysis

The U.S. dollar failed to hold above 103 after the interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it matched the expectations. The U.S. Dollar index fall to 102.36 during the early trades and bounced back to 102.73 later. The index declined from a firm resistance at 103.60 which was cemented by the interest rate decision from the 

May 4th Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar traded around 103.50 slightly below its all-time high of 103.90. The current level seems to be massive resistance as traders are waiting for the FOMC meeting. After the interest rate hike announcement, the U.S. Dollar might show impulsive movements that will determine the trend.
Technically, 

May 3rd Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar traded slightly below 103.50 near its all-time high slightly at 103.90. As mentioned before the price is expected to trade around the range of 103.50 for the week due to the volume traded and reactive trading.
Meanwhile, the trend will keep trading in a slow pattern until it breaks above 104 for a new high or below 103 

May 2nd Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar traded slightly below 103.50 near its all-time high slightly at 103.90. The index is strongly supported above the tight range between 103 and 103.20, indicating that it remains in an optimistic trend. As mentioned last week the price is expected to trade around the range of 103.50 for the week due to the volume traded and reactive trading.

 

April 29th Daily Analysis

The price of the US index has reached an all-time high of roughly 104.00, indicating that it is in an overall optimistic trend. The hourly chart shows a price retreat to the level of 103.50, which could either see the price continue higher and breach the barrier of 104.00 or form a reversal to the level of 101.10 before the bulls reclaim control.

April 28th Daily Analysis

The price of the US index has reached an all-time high of roughly 104.00, indicating that it is in an overall optimistic trend. The hourly chart shows a price retreat to the level of 103.50, which could either see the price continue higher and breach the barrier of 104.00 or form a reversal to the level 

April 26th Daily Analysis

On the daily chart of the Euro, the overall trend remains bearish. Similarly, the price is currently intersecting the negative trend line and the level of 1.0725 on the hourly chart, indicating a significant downturn. The RSI and MACD both imply price continuation to the downside.

April 25th Daily Analysis

The Euro fell 0.4% to $1.0720, getting below the two-year low of $1.0758 hit last week. A look at the EURUSD daily chart shows a continuation of the bearish trend. likewise, the hourly chart supports the bearish price action, with the price currently trading at 1.0720, below the 20-candle moving average.

April 22nd Daily Analysis

The common currency retreated after comments by the Fed chairman regarding the monetary policy yesterday. However, EURUSD was traded heavily above the support at 1.0840 and started to show hopes awaiting Lagarde’s speech later today. Technically, the pair remains in a downward trend over the long run as shown in the daily chart. Moreover, the current level is critical to deciding the next impulsive movement.

April 21st Daily Analysis

The European currency traded up for the third day, although it retains the negative trend on the daily chart. The common currency bounced from the support at 1.0780 earlier this week, which revers some of the losses recorded before the Good Friday holiday. EURUSD traded up with the European session. Technically, the hourly chart shows an impulsive movement that exceeded the moving average line, which signals a …

April 20th Daily Analysis

The Sterling pound outweighs the common currency driving the daily chart into a downtrend. The trend appears to make a corrective pullback on the hourly chart, drawing higher highs and reaching 0.8310. Based on the price action, it appears that the pair may resume its downward movement after touching the resistance near 0.8310. As the pair is moving in a tight range, thus the MACD and RSI look to be indecisive.

April 19th Daily Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart indicates an upward trend. However, the trend appears to be bearish on the hourly time frame since it has been making a succession of lower lows to the downside, which is a strong corrective move on the daily time frame. Price appears to be going in a horizontal manner with the 20 period MA moving in between prices, indicating an indecisive move according to the RSI and MACD.

April 18th Daily Analysis

SPX500 daily chart shows a positive tilt. However, pricing appears to have broken out of the bearish flag on the hourly time frame, indicating that it will go lower. The 20-period MA is above price, confirming the S&P 500’s negative directional bias. Both the MACD and the RSI point to a price decline.

April 15th Daily Analysis

EURGBP’s daily chart shows a bearish trend overall. Similarly, the EURGBP plummeted to almost a one-month low on the hourly chart for the fourth day in a row. The price is trading below the 20-candle moving average on the chart, at a level of 0.8270. The RSI and MACD both indicate that the price will continue to fall.

April 14th Daily Analysis

From the overview of the chart of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) in the daily time frame, the overall trend is bullish. Similarly, from the hourly chart, Gold Spot (XAUUSD)is indicating pressure from the bulls and has tested the recent highs made on Wednesday near $1,980 before a pullback to the $1,970 level. The US dollar is trading above the 20 candles moving average which signifies a bullish move to the upside. The RSI is also indicating price continuation to the upside.

April 13th Daily Analysis

Cable’s overall trend remains bearish in the daily time. Similarly, the trend can be seen consolidating or moving horizontally after an initial move to the downside. Price is currently at the level of 1.3010 intersecting the 20 periods MA. Both the MACD and RSI are indicating a bearish continuation of price.

 

PIVOT POINT: 1.3010

April 12th Daily Analysis

The Aussie has been in an overall uptrend from the daily time frame. However, the trend in the hourly time frame is bearish and is also trading below the 20 periods MA. The RSI and MACD are moving below the centre-line which indicates a bearish momentum of price.

 

PIVOT POINT: 0.7430

April 11th Daily Analysis

The long-term trend for EURUSD looks bearish. On the 1-hour time frame, the price seems to be making a series of lower lows, indicating a further decline. Price is currently trading below the 20 period MA at the level of 1.0895. The RSI and MACD both show that the price is most likely targeting 1.0640 in the long run.

April 8th Daily Analysis

From the daily time frame, the overall trend for the Cable is bearish. However, from the hourly time frame, GBPUSD seems to be moving horizontally after an initial break to the downside. The RSI and MACD are within the centre-line which shows that price is likely to keep moving horizontally.

 

April 7th Daily Analysis

The overall trend from the daily time frame for USDCHF remains bullish. From the hourly time frame, it is also seen clearly that the price has been making a series of higher highs and is currently at 0.9330. There is a possibility of the price retesting the support level of 0.9300 before continuing in its bullish direction. The RSI is above the centre-line which

April 6th Daily Analysis

US crude oil (WTI) long-term trend is bearish. However, the price has intersected with the 20 candles MA at $101 a barrel. Fibonacci retracement shows a weak upward movement between the levels of 38.2 and 50, showing strong resistance below $102 a barrel. MACD and RSI show a likelihood of more downward movement towards $99.5 a barrel.

 

April 5th Daily Analysis

GOLD SPOT has been in the range from the 4-hour time frame after an initial impulsive move to the bearish direction. Down to the hourly time frame, price is forming higher highs after an initial breakout from the downward trend-line. Price has formed a rejection in form of a pin-bar at the support level of 1925 and is above the centre-line on the RSI and MACD indicators.

April 1st Daily Analysis

Ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could cement the potential for a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the dollar extended a rebound versus major peers on Friday, rallying against the yen. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six counterparts including the euro and yen, rose 0.10% to 98.420, building on Thursday’s 0.50% climb.

April 4th Daily Analysis

Ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could cement the potential for a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the dollar extended a rebound versus major peers on Friday, rallying against the yen. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six counterparts including the euro and yen, rose 0.10% to 98.420, building on Thursday’s 0.50% climb.

April 1st Daily Analysis

Ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could cement the potential for a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the dollar extended a rebound versus major peers on Friday, rallying against the yen. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six counterparts including the euro and yen, rose 0.10% to 98.420, building on Thursday’s 0.50% climb.

March 31st Daily Analysis

The US 10-year Treasury yields rose 5.4 basis points (bps) to the highest levels since May 2019, around 2.54% by the time of writing. European stock markets are expected to start the week in a cautious manner, as market participants keep a wary eye on changes in the war between Ukraine and Russia with peace talks set to take place in Turkey this week.

March 30th Daily Analysis

Ukraine proposes to join the EU while adopting neutral status by not joining NATO. The Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said they have prepared documents that allow the presidents to meet on a bilateral basis. Gold has witnessed a steep fall this week after failing to sustain above the grounds of $1,950.00.  

March 29th Daily Analysis

 A likely higher print of UK inflation may force the BOE to come forward with one more interest rate hike in May. The BOE has increased its interest rates to 0.75% to combat the soaring inflation. The UK’s Office for National Statistics printed the yearly Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.2%, which was significantly higher than the market estimates 

 

March 28th Daily Analysis

The US 10-year Treasury yields rose 5.4 basis points (bps) to the highest levels since May 2019, around 2.54% by the time of writing. European stock markets are expected to start the week in a cautious manner, as market participants keep a wary eye on changes in the war between Ukraine and Russia with peace talks set to take place in Turkey this week.

 

March 25rd Daily Analysis

The dollar was down this morning in Asia, and the Japanese yen was set for its worst week in two years. Rising import costs and low-interest rates contributed to the yen’s downward trend, but commodity currencies were set for a second consecutive weekly gain on the dollar as export prices continue to soar.

March 23rd Daily Analysis

Ahead of the disclosure of Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Wednesday, GBPUSD has been performing stronger. A preliminary estimate for the yearly UK’s CPI is 5.9%, much higher than the previous print of 5.5%. GBPUSD has witnessed a strong upside move on Tuesday amid the

March 22nd Daily Analysis

The Euro is trading lower early this morning in the wake of hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. The common currency remains under pressure after dovish comments

March 21st Daily Analysis

Euro drops below 0.8400 against the Pound after hitting resistance on 0.8455. The currency is trading lower across the board, with risk sentiment waning as hopes of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine start to whither in absence of any substantial progress. Looking at the current price of EURGBP, the pair trades around a psychological level 

March 18th Daily Analysis

Gas prices are up as much as 77 cents from last month. Some US shoppers are signing up for Costco memberships in order to buy cheaper gas. Over the past few days, dozens of consumers have touted the benefits of a Costco membership on Twitter, The trend for natural gas is bullish after breaking previous structures to the upside. 

 

March 17th Daily Analysis

Gold price remains in the hands of buyers this Thursday, following a decent comeback amidst a hawkish Fed. Concerns  over risks to global economic growth play out and influence gold price, as the focus remains on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

 

March 11th Daily Analysis

Following a massive rally during the previous session, stocks halted on Thursday, with the major equity averages finishing the day fairly lower.

 

March 10th Daily Analysis

Businesses are producing more data now than ever before. Some estimates say that 90% of all data ever produced has been made in the past two years alone — and as more businesses shift to a…

 

March 9th Daily Analysis

The benchmark indices on BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) opened on a positive note on Wednesday.
The S&P BSE Sensex climbed nearly 370 points to 53,793.99 in opening deals

March 8th Daily Analysis

The overall trend for EURGBP shows that price is in a bearish direction. We could clearly see that price is retesting the support zone between 0.83171 and 0.83021 which 

March 4th Daily Analysis

Toyota Motor Corp will halt production at its Russian factory from Friday while vehicle imports into the country have also stopped indefinitely due to supply chain 

March 3rd Daily Analysis

The overall bias of XRPUSD is bullish. We could see that price has broken and retested a major resistance zone which is also inline with the retest of the 50 EMA. 

March 2nd Daily Analysis

In contrast to yesterday, when defense stocks of all stripes moved in only one direction — up — Russia’s continuing attack on Ukraine had divergent effects on defense stocks today. 

March 1st Daily Analysis

The U.S. Treasury has published a document indicating that it will expand upon sanctions against Russia put in place last year. One section makes specific reference to digital 

February 21st Daily Analysis

Market sentiment deteriorated this past week around the globe as geopolitical tensions around Ukraine mixed with the road ahead for tightening monetary policy. On Wall Street, futures tracking the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones…

February 18th Daily Analysis

Chinese President Xi Jinping told top leaders to speed up work on new laws for the technology sector during a speech in early December. It’s a sign that regulation is not going away yet, even though the speech covers little new ground…

February 17th Daily Analysis

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses after stronger-than-expected retail sales data gave the Federal Reserve more ammunition to tighten policy, while geopolitical tensions over Russia and …

February 16th Daily Analysis

Dry weather conditions in West Africa have helped the cocoa exchange traded note enjoy a sweet February. The Path Bloomberg Cocoa TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: NIB) has advanced 11.1% since the late January lows…

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