美元/日元:在动荡游走
USD/JPY: Navigating the Turbulence

美元/日元:在动荡游走
USD/JPY: Navigating the Turbulence

美元/日元对已经经历了显着的下跌趋势,标志着连续第五天的下跌。该对在欧洲早盘交易时段达到了近一个月的低点,停在3月至6月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤水平附近。由于市场预期美联储将在7月份加息25个基点后结束其加息周期,美元周围的熊市压力持续不减。

另一方面,日元(JPY)得到了市场预期日本央行(BoJ)将在本月尽快调整其超宽松政策设置的支持。这也导致了过去一周美元/日元对的下跌。然而,股票市场的总体积极基调正在削弱对避险货币日元的需求,并为现货价格提供了一些支持。交易员们也在美国消费者通胀数据发布之前选择观望。美国CPI报告对美元的影响将为美元/日元对提供一些有意义的动力。同时,小时图上的相对强弱指数(RSI)极度超卖,有助于限制进一步的下跌。

技术分析表明,美元/日元对的最小阻力路径是向下。然而,熊市可能仍会等待一些日内整固或适度反弹后再下注。 38.2%的斐波那契水平可能保护即时下行,如果突破139.00水平,将被视为熊市的新触发点。然后,该对可能会加速贬值,测试低于138.00的水平,代表61.8%的斐波那契水平。

The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing a significant downtrend, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline. The pair has reached a nearly one-month low during the early European session, pausing near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June rally. The bearish pressure surrounding the USD remains unabated due to speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its rate-hiking cycle following a 25 bps liftoff in July.

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is drawing support from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its ultra-loose policy settings as soon as this month. This has contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s downfall over the past week. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY and lending some support to spot prices.

Traders are also seen waiting on the sidelines ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due for release later during the early North American session. The crucial US CPI report should influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly charts is seen helping limit the downside, at least for the time being.

Technical analysis suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. However, bears might still wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest bounce before placing fresh bets from current levels. The 38.2% Fibo level could protect the immediate downside ahead of the 139.00 mark, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The pair might then accelerate the depreciating move towards testing sub-138.00 levels, representing the 61.8% Fibo level.

現在就與交易大師開始你的交易旅程!