每日分析
每日分析
每日分析
EUR/USD分析：欧元面临下行压力 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Faces Downward Pressure
近日，EUR/USD对在1.0650以下的六个月低点附近挣扎。尽管欧元区的经济数据显示出一些积极迹象，但美元的强势仍在制约欧元的上涨。技术分析显示，EUR/USD正在从支撑水平反弹。该货币对目前正处于Ichimoku Cloud之下，预示着下行趋势。预计将测试Tenkan-Sen线的1.0665，然后下跌至1.0505。如果价格突破云的上边界并在1.0725以上稳定，这将意味着进一步增长到1.0815。
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling near six-month lows below 1.0650. Despite some positive economic data from the Eurozone, the strength of the US dollar continues to curb the rise of the Euro. Technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD is pushing off from its support levels. The pair is currently below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bearish trend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 1.0665 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.0505. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud with the price stabilizing above 1.0725 would indicate further growth to 1.0815.
USD/JPY分析：美元/日元等待美联储与日本央行的决策 USD/JPY Analysis: Awaiting Decisions From The Fed And BOJ
近日，美元/日元交易相对平静，日本因假期休市。市场正热切期待即将于周三召开的美联储公开市场委员会会议，预计在接下来的几天内市场将出现期待已久的波动。目前，市场的焦点仍然集中在关键的¥147.80水平，这一水平正充当着重要的阻力。突破这一关键水平可能为向心理重要的¥150水平推进铺平道路。尽管¥150具有重要的心理意义。总体上，这个市场倾向于在回撤时买入，尽管近日这样的回撤机会有限。考虑到日本央行不太可能对其货币政策进行重大调整，市场最终可能会选择在更有利的汇率下购买美元。
The USD/JPY trading has been relatively muted recently, with Japan observing a temporary holiday. The market is keenly anticipating the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting set for Wednesday, expected to bring much-awaited volatility in the coming days. The market’s attention remains on the crucial ¥147.80 level, acting as a significant barrier. A potential break above this pivotal level could pave the way for a move towards the psychologically significant ¥150 mark. Overall, the market has favored buying on dips, though such opportunities have been scarce lately. Given the BOJ’s unlikely stance to make significant policy shifts, the market will likely seize the chance to buy US dollars at more favorable rates in the future.
GBP/USD分析：英镑面临美元的压力，市场期待英格兰银行的决策 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Faces Dollar Pressure Awaiting BoE Decision
近期，GBP/USD汇率受到了多重经济数据的影响，导致英镑在外汇市场上的表现受到压制。尽管英国GDP的下降超出了预期，但英国经济的不确定性仍然困扰着投资者。此外，英国失业人数在7月前三个月内增加了207,000人。与此同时，澳大利亚经济在上周表现强劲，尤其是就业数据大大超出了预期，增加了64.9千个职位。这一积极数据加强了市场对澳大利亚央行可能继续加息的预期。本周，市场的焦点将集中在英格兰银行的货币政策决策上，尽管预计银行将在周四将利率提高0.25个百分点，但上周官员之间的冲突性评论使预测变得复杂。
The GBP/USD exchange rate has been influenced by a slew of economic data, leading to a subdued performance of the Pound in the forex market. The unexpected decline in UK’s GDP coupled with the prevailing economic uncertainties has been a concern for investors. Additionally, the UK saw an increase in unemployment by 207,000 individuals over the three months leading to July. On the flip side, the Australian economy showcased strength last week, especially with employment data significantly surpassing expectations with an addition of 64.9k jobs. This positive data bolstered market expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia possibly continuing with rate hikes. This week, the spotlight will be on the monetary policy decision of the Bank of England. While an interest rate hike of 0.25% is officially anticipated on Thursday, conflicting remarks from officials last week have muddled the forecasts.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在市场波动中展现韧性 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Market Fluctuations
近期，黄金价格在市场波动中表现出了稳健的趋势。尽管面临一些下行压力，黄金仍然成功地保持在其200日EMA上方，显示出其坚韧性。技术分析显示，黄金在上周四形成了一个小的多头十字星，紧接着在上周五出现了强劲的上涨，使其回到了200日EMA上方。然而，黄金未能保持在200日移动平均线上方，并在50日和100日EMA附近受到了阻力。尽管如此，黄金的上涨势头仍然强劲，预计在未来可能会有进一步的上涨。
Recently, gold prices have showcased a robust trend amidst market fluctuations. Despite facing some downward pressures, gold has successfully managed to remain above its 200-day EMA, indicating its resilience. Technical analysis reveals that a small bullish doji was formed on Thursday, followed by a strong rally on Friday, bringing it back above the 200-day EMA. However, gold failed to sustain above the 200-day moving average and faced resistance around the 50 and 100-day EMAs. Nevertheless, the bullish momentum for gold remains intact, with expectations of further upside in the future.
原油分析：市场继续收紧，布伦特原油迎来第三周涨势 Crude Oil Analysis: Market Continues To Tighten, Brent Eyes Third Weekly Gain
近日，布伦特原油价格在沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的供应限制影响下，市场继续收紧，迎来了连续第三周的涨势。全球原油基准价格已经突破了每桶94美元，上周五收盘后已经上涨了超过4%。国际能源署和石油输出国组织本周都警告称，市场将在今年年底之前继续出现供不应求的情况。从技术分析来看，原油价格在看涨通道的支持线上波动，随着随机指标的正向交叉，预计原油价格将继续上涨，目标为90.00美元，突破此水平后可能会进一步上涨至91.65美元。
Brent crude oil is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain as the market tightens due to supply curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The global crude benchmark has surged past $94 per barrel, marking an increase of over 4% since last Friday’s close. Both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have issued warnings this week about a market deficit persisting through the end of the year. Technically, the oil price oscillates at the bullish channel’s support line, with positive stochastic crossovers indicating potential upward momentum, targeting $90.00 and possibly extending to $91.65 upon breaching the former level.
GBP/USD分析：英镑/美元在200日简单移动平均线遇到坚实支持 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Finds Solid Support At The 200-Day SMA
近日，GBP/USD货币对在200日简单移动平均线（SMA）处遭遇了强烈的支持，这可能预示着即将到来的整合阶段。尽管存在下行压力，但该货币对在此关键技术水平上显示出稳定的迹象。此外，一些分析师认为，考虑到当前的市场动态，GBP/USD可能会在短期内继续其交易范围。目前，1.24300水平作为一个显着的阻力，而1.2300则作为近期的支持。
In recent times, the GBP/USD currency pair has encountered robust support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), hinting at a potential consolidation phase ahead. Despite the bearish pressures, the pair exhibits signs of stability at this pivotal technical level. Additionally, some analysts believe that given the current market dynamics, GBP/USD might continue its trading range in the short term. Currently, the 1.2430 level acts as a notable resistance, with 1.2300 serving as the immediate support.
EUR/USD分析：在欧洲央行的通胀预测升级之际，欧元面临压力 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Faces Pressure Amid ECB's Inflation Forecast Upgrade
近期，EUR/USD货币对受到多个因素的影响。根据消息来源，欧洲央行可能会升级其2024年的通胀预测，这可能会对欧元产生压力。从技术分析的角度来看，该对在1.0750以下挣扎，尽管有一些胜利的迹象，但1.0685的再次访问仍然可能。当前的阻力位于1.0750，而支持位于1.0685。市场将密切关注欧洲央行的下一步行动，以及其对货币对走势的潜在影响。
The EUR/USD currency pair has been influenced by various factors recently. According to sources, the European Central Bank might upgrade its inflation forecast for 2024, which could exert pressure on the Euro. Technically, the pair is struggling below the 1.0750 mark, and despite showing some signs of a winning streak, another visit to the 1.0685 level remains plausible. The current resistance stands at 1.0750, with support at 1.0685. The market will be keenly observing the next moves from the ECB and its potential impact on the pair’s trajectory.
USD/JPY分析：在日本央行评论后，美元回撤，技术面显示下行风险 USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Retreats Post BOJ Remarks, Technicals Signal Downside Risks
近日，USD/JPY货币对在日本央行的评论后出现了一些负面尝试。技术分析显示，该对在突破了一个关键支持水平后可能面临进一步的下行风险。短期内，145.55的支持水平可能会受到测试，而146.90则作为上方的阻力。市场正在密切关注即将发布的美国数据，这可能会进一步影响其走势。日本央行的评论和即将到来的美国经济数据都可能成为推动该货币对走势的关键因素。
Recently, the USD/JPY currency pair has shown negative attempts following comments from the Bank of Japan. Technical analysis indicates that after breaking a key support level, the pair might face further downside risks. In the short term, the 145.55 support level could be tested, with 146.90 acting as an immediate resistance overhead. The market is keenly awaiting upcoming US data that could further influence its trajectory. Remarks from the Bank of Japan coupled with impending US economic data could serve as pivotal drivers for the pair’s movement.
USD/CHF分析：尽管美元疲软，瑞郎仍维持在0.8900以上 USD/CHF Analysis: Franc Holds Above 0.8900 Despite Weaker USD
近期，USD/CHF货币对在较弱的美元影响下出现了适度的回调，但仍成功维持在0.8900的关键水平之上。该对目前处于一个横向交易区间，但由于美元的韧性，它似乎在0.8900水平上找到了支撑。从技术分析的角度来看，只要该对保持在此支持水平之上，就有可能看到进一步的上涨。然而，任何突破都可能导致更大的价格波动。
Recently, the USD/CHF currency pair has experienced modest losses influenced by a softer US dollar, yet it has successfully managed to sustain above the pivotal 0.8900 level. The pair is currently trading within a sideways trajectory, but due to the resilience of the US dollar, it appears to find support at the 0.8900 mark. From a technical perspective, as long as the pair remains above this support level, further upside could be anticipated. However, any breach might lead to more significant price fluctuations.
XAU/USD分析：尽管市场大幅波动, 黄金展示出韧性
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Shows Resilience Despite Market Volatility
近期，黄金价格表现出了令人兴奋的复苏，XAU/USD对在市场波动中表现出韧性。近日贵金属已经围绕重要支持水平稳定下来，表明短期内可能有利好势头。技术指标表明，只要黄金保持在$1,780的支持水平以上，就有进一步上涨的空间，目标是$1,800的心理障碍。另一方面，突破此支持可能为更深的回调铺平了道路。此外，USD/CNH对的走势暗示了一个潜在的突破，这可能在未来几天进一步影响黄金的轨迹。
Gold prices have shown a commendable recovery recently, with the XAU/USD pair demonstrating resilience amidst broader market fluctuations. The precious metal has managed to stabilize around significant support levels, indicating a potential bullish momentum in the near term. Technical indicators suggest that as long as gold maintains above the $1,780 support level, there’s room for further upside, targeting the $1,800 psychological barrier. On the other hand, a breach below this support might pave the way for a deeper pullback. Additionally, the movement in the USD/CNH pair hints at a potential breakout, which could further influence gold’s trajectory in the coming days.
EUR/USD分析：欧元在回调压力下的挣扎
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro's Struggle On Pullback Pressures
近期，EUR/USD货币对经历了一些动荡。在从近期低点1.0700附近反弹后，该对已经重新夺回了1.0740区域。然而，尽管有这种反弹，该对仍然面临重大压力，短期内还有进一步下跌的可能性。如果1.0700的支持被突破，该对可能会受到挑战，达到5月的低点1.0635。此外，只要该对交易低于关键的200日SMA，目前在1.0820，看跌的前景仍然存在。
The EUR/USD currency pair has been navigating through some turbulent waters recently. After bouncing off the recent lows near the 1.0700 mark, the pair has managed to reclaim the 1.0740 area. However, despite this rebound, the pair remains under significant pressure, and there’s potential for further losses in the short-term horizon. If the 1.0700 support is breached, the pair might be motivated to challenge the May low of 1.0635. Furthermore, as long as the pair trades below the crucial 200-day SMA, currently at 1.0820, the bearish outlook remains intact.
USD/JPY分析：美元对日元的强劲上涨 USD/JPY Analysis: Strong Surge For The Dollar Against The Yen
近日，USD/JPY货币对在周二的交易中显着上涨，随着夏季休假结束，市场流动性增加。目前，美元对日元的上涨势头强劲，预计将进一步突破，目标达到¥150的关键水平。尽管可能会出现短暂的回调，但整体上涨趋势仍然明显。美国的债券收益率和日本央行的货币政策将是未来市场走势的关键因素。
The USD/JPY currency pair has seen a significant rally during Tuesday’s trading as liquidity returned post the summer break. Currently, the bullish momentum for the USD against the JPY is robust, with expectations of a full breakout aiming for the key level of ¥150. While occasional pullbacks might occur, the overarching uptrend remains evident. Bond yields in the U.S. and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will play pivotal roles in determining the future market trajectory.
𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃分析：制造业数据与英国央行的立场影响英镑走势 𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐨𝐄'𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
GBP/USD货币对受到了各种经济和政治因素的影响。英国8月的制造业PMI数据显示了下降，这表明该部门出现了下滑。与此同时，英国央行（BoE）继续提高利率以控制通货膨胀，这表明英国经济正面临压力。英国财政大臣杰里米·亨特表示，通货膨胀压力可能会减轻，预计到年底将下降到5%。但是，预计9月可能会出现一个高峰。英国央行的立场仍然是鹰派的，预计在即将到来的9月会议上将提高25个基点的利率。
GBP/USD正在一个下降的三角形中交易，这是一个预示着可能的向下突破的看跌模式。相对强度指数（RSI）低于50支持这一看跌的观点。要观察的关键水平包括1.2550（8月低点）的支撑和1.2650（100天SMA）和1.2730（上周高点）的阻力。如果突破支撑可能会延长看跌趋势，而超过阻力可能会表示看涨反转。
The GBP/USD currency pair has been influenced by various economic and political factors. The UK’s manufacturing PMI data for August showed a decline, indicating a slump in the sector. This data, combined with the Bank of England’s (BoE) continued interest rate hikes to control inflation, suggests that the UK economy is under pressure. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, expressed optimism that inflationary pressures might ease, projecting a decline to 5% by year-end. However, a potential spike in September is anticipated. The BoE’s stance remains hawkish, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike in the upcoming September meeting.
The GBP/USD is trading within a descending triangle, a bearish pattern that suggests a potential downward breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) being below 50 supports this bearish outlook. Key levels to watch include a support at 1.2550 (August low) and resistances at 1.2650 (100-day SMA) and 1.2730 (last week’s high). A breach below the support could extend the bearish trend, while surpassing the resistance might indicate a bullish reversal.
EUR/USD分析：欧元突破100日移动平均线，市场期待欧元区和美国的通货膨胀线索 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Breaks 100-DMA Barrier Awaiting Eurozone And US Inflation Indicators
近期，EUR/USD货币对表现强劲，成功突破了100日移动平均线的阻力。从基本面来看，市场对即将发布的欧元区和美国的通货膨胀数据持观望态度，这可能会进一步影响货币对的走势。技术分析显示，EUR/USD现在目标1.0970的上方，这可能是下一个关键阻力。欧元近期受到美元暂停上涨和日元下跌的提振，导致EUR/USD和EUR/JPY均有所上涨。
The EUR/USD currency pair has recently shown strength, successfully breaking through the resistance of the 100-day moving average. Fundamentally, the market is on the lookout for upcoming inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US, which could further influence the pair’s trajectory. On the technical front, the EUR/USD is now targeting levels above 1.0970, which might serve as the next key resistance. The Euro has been buoyed recently by a pause in the US dollar’s ascent and a decline in the Japanese yen, leading to gains in both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.
数字货币改革：美国法院支持ETF比特币引来新一波涨幅 BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin's Price Dynamics Amid Market Corrections
比特币最近经历了显着的涨势，超过了$26,500和$27,000的阻力，并测试了$28,000的阻力区，现在正在经历一个修正，向$27,000的支持移动。这次涨势受到了美国法院支持Grayscale对SEC的裁决的影响，为潜在的ETF铺平了道路。尽管目前正在进行修正，比特币仍然高于$26,500的水平和100小时简单移动平均线。即时阻力接近$27,650，重要的障碍在$28,000和$28,500。如果比特币不能突破$28,000的阻力，它则可能会向下调整，支持水平为$27,000和$26,700。
Bitcoin recently experienced a significant rally, surpassing the $26,500 and $27,000 thresholds. The cryptocurrency tested the $28,000 resistance zone but is now undergoing a correction, moving towards the $27,000 mark. This surge was influenced by the news of a US court ruling in favor of Grayscale against the SEC, paving the way for potential ETFs. Despite the current correction, Bitcoin remains above the $26,500 level and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. Immediate resistance lies near $27,650, with significant barriers at $28,000 and $28,500. If Bitcoin can’t breach the $28,000 resistance, it might face a decline, with support levels at $27,000 and $26,700.
XAU/USD分析：黄金的回调或新趋势？ XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Pullback Or A New Trend?
近期，黄金价格显示出积极的稳定性。尽管市场中存在不确定性，但黄金可能正在经历一个回调。从基本面和技术面来看，黄金在达到某些高点后已回撤部分涨幅。关键支撑位于$1,800附近，而阻力位于$1,850。突破此阻力可能意味着继续看涨，而跌破支撑可能指示更深的修正．
Gold prices have been exhibiting positive stability recently. Despite market uncertainties, there’s a possibility that gold is undergoing a pullback. Both fundamentally and technically, after reaching certain highs, gold has retraced some of its gains. Key support is around the $1,800 mark, while resistance is at $1,850. A breach above could signal bullish continuation, while a drop below might indicate a deeper correction.
USD/CHF分析：美元/瑞郎在鲍威尔讲话前走势向上 USD/CHF Analysis: Gaining Momentum Ahead Of Powell's Speech
近日，USD/CHF货币对显示出强劲的上涨势头，目前正在0.8860附近获得动力。这种增长部分是由于市场对美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的讲话的预期。从技术分析的角度看，该对已经突破了一些关键的阻力水平，显示出牛市的信号。如果这种上涨势头继续，我们可能会看到该对进一步上涨。然而，鲍威尔的讲话可能会对这一趋势产生重大影响，因此交易者应保持警惕。
The USD/CHF currency pair has been showcasing a robust upward trajectory, currently gaining traction around the 0.8860 mark. This surge is partly attributed to the market’s anticipation of an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken through some critical resistance levels, signaling bullish momentum. If this upward trend persists, we might witness further ascension in the pair. However, Powell’s address could significantly sway this trend, so traders should remain vigilant.
GBP/USD分析： PMI数据出台后, 鸽派预期下英镑走软 GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Softens, Dovish BOE Expectations Post-PMI Data
近期，GBP/USD货币对受到了多个经济数据的影响。尤其是在英国的PMI数据发布后，市场对英国央行可能采取的鸽派立场的预期增加，导致英镑走软。尽管如此，该对仍然试图恢复到1. 2700水平以上。从技术分析的角度来看，该对面临多个阻力，但买家仍然在1.2700以上寻找机会。如果该对能够突破1.2800的阻力水平，那么它可能会进一步上涨。然而，如果跌破1.2650，这可能会改变当前的趋势。
The GBP/USD currency pair has been influenced by various economic data points recently. Notably, after the release of the UK’s PMI data, there’s an increased market expectation of a dovish stance from the Bank of England, leading to a softening of the pound. Despite this, the pair is still attempting to recover above the 1.2700 level. Technically, the pair faces multiple resistances, but buyers are still looking for opportunities above 1.2700. A break above the 1.2800 resistance level could propel it further. However, a breach below 1.2650 could alter the current trend.
USD/JPY分析：美元/日元继续在低位寻找买家 USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Continues To Find Buyers At Lower Levels
近期，USD/JPY货币对显示出一些技术上的弱点，尤其是在连续创下的较低高点。尽管如此，每次下跌都吸引了买家，这表明市场对这一货币对仍然持有积极的看法。从技术分析的角度来看，该对在110.50水平附近找到了支撑，并可能继续上涨。如果该对能够突破112.00的阻力水平，那么它可能会进一步上涨。然而，如果跌破110.00，这可能会改变当前的趋势。
The USD/JPY currency pair has shown some technical vulnerabilities recently, especially with the formation of consecutive lower highs. Despite this, every dip has attracted buyers, indicating a continued positive sentiment in the market towards the pair. From a technical standpoint, the pair has found support around the 110.50 level and might continue its upward trajectory. A break above the 112.00 resistance level could propel it further. However, a breach below 110.00 could alter the current trend.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在真实收益率达到14年高点后下跌 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Declines As Real Yields Reach 14-Year Highs
近期，黄金价格受到美国真实收益率上升和美元强势的双重压力。尽管经济数据显示经济增长，但黄金仍未能从中获得支持，因为强劲的数据增加了美联储进一步加息的风险。从技术分析的角度看，黄金在日线图上已经跌破了6月的低点1893，这为其进一步下跌到1805的支撑水平敞开了大门。此外，4小时图显示，黄金价格持续在一个下降的通道内交易，每次回调都被红色的21日移动平均线完美地拒绝。只有当价格突破这一下降通道时，买方才可能获得更大的回调动力。本周，市场将关注美国的PMI数据和失业救济金数据，以及杰克逊霍尔研讨会，期待美联储主席鲍威尔的发言。
Gold prices have been under significant pressure recently, primarily due to the rise in US real yields and a robust US dollar. Despite economic data indicating growth, gold hasn’t found support, as strong figures amplify the risks of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Technically, gold has breached the June low of 1893 on the daily chart, paving the way for a potential descent to the 1805 support level. Moreover, the 4-hour chart illustrates that gold consistently trades within a declining channel, with each pullback being immaculately rejected by the red 21-day moving average. Only a break from this descending channel might give the bulls a chance for a more substantial pullback. This week, the market’s focus will be on the US PMIs and jobless claims data, along with the Jackson Hole Symposium, where remarks from Fed Chair Powell are eagerly anticipated.
EUR/USD分析：欧元在1.0880附近保持小幅增长 EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Maintains Slight Uptick Around 1.0880
近日，EUR/USD货币对在1.0880附近保持小幅增长，成功从六周低点反弹。欧元对的近期回升可能归因于前五周下跌趋势的整合，以及在八月份的采购经理人指数（PMIs）和由堪萨斯联邦储备银行主办的著名的杰克逊霍尔研讨会前的定位。从技术角度看，上周五的Doji蜡烛图形和接近超卖条件的RSI（14）线提示EUR/USD价格可能出现修正反弹。然而，100日指数移动平均线（EMA）和自7月19日起的下降阻力线将1.0900水平视为欧元买家的强大障碍。此外，自四月十日以来的水平区域，其中1.0840为最新，限制了EUR/USD对的即时下行。总的来说，尽管EUR/USD对近期有所反弹，但仍处于熊市之中。尽管如此，下行空间似乎受到了限制。
The EUR/USD currency pair has been holding onto marginal gains, hovering around the 1.0880 mark, as it manages to rebound from its lowest in six weeks. The recent recovery of the Euro pair can be attributed to the consolidation of the downtrend observed over the past five weeks, coupled with positioning in anticipation of the upcoming Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and the notable Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas Fed. Technically, the Doji candlestick pattern observed on Friday, along with an RSI (14) nearing oversold conditions, suggests a potential corrective bounce in the EUR/USD price. However, the convergence of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a descending resistance line from July 19 marks the 1.0900 level as a significant hurdle for Euro bulls. In essence, while the EUR/USD pair has shown signs of a rebound, the bearish outlook remains dominant, with limited room for further downside.
BTC/USD分析：比特币的未来价值展望 BTC/USD Analysis: The Future Value Outlook Of Bitcoin
近日，比特币的未来价值成为了加密货币市场的热议话题。有观点认为比特币到2024年4月可能达到180,000美元。这一预测使许多人开始思考，现在是否是投资并“买入低点”的好时机。尽管比特币最近失去了势头。然而，并非所有人都持此看法。一些分析师认为，当前的熊市可能会持续数月甚至数年。他们将此归因于围绕加密货币的持续监管不确定性。从技术角度看，比特币的价格已经跌破了28,730美元的主要支撑位，如果跌破这一水平，BTC可能会进一步下跌至27,150美元，甚至26,000美元。
Amid the fluctuating cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin’s future value has been a fervent topic of discussion. Some projections indicate that BTC could soar to a staggering $180,000 by next year. This prediction has sparked debates on whether now is the opportune moment to invest and “buy the dip.” However, not everyone shares this perspective. Some analysts believe that the current bear market could persist for several months or even years, attributing this to the ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies. Technically, Bitcoin’s price has broken the major support level at $28,730. A bearish breakout below this level could push BTC towards $27,150, and further declines might see BTC approaching the $26,000 mark.
EUR/USD分析：欧元面临压力，市场关注欧元区GDP EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Under Pressure, Eyes On Eurozone GDP
近期，EUR/USD货币对受到了多种经济因素的影响，尤其是在美国发布了强劲的经济数据后。欧元在美元的强劲表现面前显得压力重重，目前交易在1.0915附近。尽管如此，该对仍然保持在1.0900的关键支持区域之上。从技术角度看，EUR/USD在50天和100天的指数移动平均线（EMA）之下交易，这意味着其下行风险增加。然而，相对强度指数（RSI）维持在50附近，显示出市场的方向不明确。如果该对能够突破1.0940的关键阻力位，那么下一个目标可能是1.0980。相反，如果跌破1.0900，可能会进一步下跌至1.0875。
The EUR/USD currency pair has been under the spotlight recently, especially after the release of robust economic data from the US. The euro is feeling the heat against a resurgent US dollar, currently trading around the 1.0915 mark. Despite this, the pair remains above the crucial support zone of 1.0900. Technically, the EUR/USD is trading below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating increased downside risks. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around the 50 mark, showcasing a lack of clear direction in the market. A breach above the key resistance at 1.0940 could target the next level at 1.0980. Conversely, a drop below 1.0900 might further decline towards 1.0875.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格面临关键决策点 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold At A Crucial Decision Point
近期，黄金价格受到多种因素的影响，其中最为显着的是零售交易者的牛市情绪。尽管这种情绪可能为黄金带来上行压力，但黄金仍面临下行风险。从基本面来看，黄金价格正在接近其首个目标 1,900 的心理关口，这可能是一个关键的决策点。此外，黄金的技术分析显示，其价格在这两天有所上涨，但仍需突破一些关键阻力位。
技术上，黄金正在努力突破其近期的下降趋势。如果成功突破，这可能会为进一步的上涨打开大门。然而，如果黄金自1980这一关键水平开展下跌浪后, 遭遇强烈的卖盘压力。交易者应密切关注1,900这一关键水平，并根据市场动态调整其交易策略。
Gold prices have recently been influenced by a myriad of factors, with bullish sentiment among retail traders being the most notable. Despite this bullish sentiment potentially providing upward pressure on gold, analysts warn that the precious metal remains at risk of a downturn. Fundamentally, gold is approaching its initial target 1,900 psychological level, which could serve as a pivotal decision point. Moreover, from a technical perspective, gold has seen some upward movement in the past few days but still needs to breach certain key resistance levels.
Technically, gold is striving to surpass its recent highs. A successful breach could pave the way for further ascension. However, if gold encounters strong selling pressure at this crucial level from 1,980 level, a pullback in prices might ensue. Traders should keep a close eye on this pivotal level of 1,900 and adjust their trading strategies based on market dynamics.
USD/JPY分析：央行干预意愿低导致日元走软 USD/JPY Analysis: Low Intention Of Intervention From BOJ Drives JPY Weakening
USD/JPY货币对近期经历了一些引人注目的变动，该对最近试图突破重要水平。该对最近的上涨到一个全新的多月高点超过145.00已经引起了交易者和分析师的关注。然而，这一移动是短暂的，该对不能长时间保持在这一水平之上。这样的移动自然引起了关于可能的货币市场干预的问题，特别是因为日本银行在去年9月曾在这一水平附近进行过干预，以对抗持续的日元疲软。从基本面来看，美国和日本之间的利率差距扩大一直是该对动态的驱动力。美国债券收益率的最近上涨，7月生产者价格高于预期，进一步加剧了这一动态。这些价格上涨，特别是在服务部门，加剧了关于持续的工资通货膨胀导致更加根深蒂固的服务通货膨胀的担忧。
然而，尽管该对接近145.00的水平，日本银行重新进行干预的可能性似乎很低。当前的市场动态与过去不同，过去一个月内，日元对美元贬值只约5%。这与日本银行之前的干预之前观察到的更大的贬值形成对比。值得注意的是，中央银行通常更关心市场功能性而不是特定水平。USD/JPY的最近走势表明交易者持谨慎态度，许多人可能在等待更明确的信号之前决定方向。
The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing some intriguing movements, with the pair recently attempting to breach significant levels. Fundamentally, the widening interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan have been a driving force behind the pair’s movements. The recent rise in US bond yields, following higher-than-expected producer prices in July, has further fueled this dynamic. These price increases, especially in the services sector, have heightened concerns about persistent wage inflation leading to more entrenched services inflation.
However, despite the pair nearing the 145.00 mark, the likelihood of renewed intervention by the Bank of Japan seems low. The current market dynamics differ from the past, with the yen depreciating only about 5% against the US dollar over the past month. This is in contrast to the more significant depreciation observed before the Bank of Japan’s previous intervention. It’s essential to note that central banks are often more concerned about market functionality than specific levels. The recent movement in the USD/JPY has been relatively measured, which might explain the lack of significant commentary from Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressing concerns about the yen’s position.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY is trading at 144.90, having retreated from its intraday high of 145.22. The pair’s movement suggests a cautious sentiment among traders, with many likely awaiting more definitive signals before committing to a direction.
𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃分析：英镑等待英国𝐆𝐃𝐏和美国𝐏𝐏𝐈数据 𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐊 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐔𝐒 𝐏𝐏𝐈 𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬
近期，GBP/USD受到了多种经济因素的影响。由于美国的CPI和就业数据令人失望，英镑经历了一波上涨。然而，该对似乎正在一个特定范围内整合。英格兰银行继续保持紧缩的货币政策，与美联储的立场相呼应。在这样的环境下，市场不认为两种货币之间存在显着的差异，导致了大量的横向移动。即将到来的英国GDP和美国PPI数字预计将在确定该对的方向中发挥关键作用。
技术分析显示，GBP/USD对已经显示出一些有趣的模式。在美国的CPI读数和失业数据出台之后，英镑上涨，而且正在努力保持这种势头。 50天EMA似乎正在为价格起到关键作用。目前，该对正处于1.2650水平之上，这在过去已被证明是重要的。如果该对突破这一水平，它将遇到上升趋势线和200天EMA，两者都提供支持。如果跌破200天EMA，可能会发出更深的下跌信号，可能会改变趋势。相反，突破1.2800水平可能会打开通往1.3000标记的大门，这是一个心理上重要的水平。克服这一点可能会针对最近的高点1.3150。
The GBP/USD currency pair, often referred to as the “Cable,” has been influenced by a myriad of economic factors recently. The British pound experienced a surge during the trading session, primarily driven by the disappointing CPI and employment figures from the United States. However, the pair seems to be consolidating within a specific range. The Bank of England continues to maintain a tight monetary policy, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s stance. In such an environment, the market doesn’t perceive a significant differential between the two currencies, leading to a lot of sideways movement. The upcoming UK GDP and US PPI numbers are anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the pair’s direction.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair has shown some interesting patterns. After the US CPI readings and unemployment claims, the British pound shot up, but it’s struggling to maintain that momentum. The 50-day EMA seems to be acting as a magnet for the price. Currently, the pair is consolidating just above the 1.2650 level, which has proven to be significant in the past. If the pair breaches this level, it will encounter the uptrend line and the 200-day EMA, both offering support. A drop below the 200-day EMA could signal a more profound decline, potentially altering the trend. Conversely, breaking above the 1.2800 level could open doors to the 1.3000 mark, a psychologically significant level. Overcoming this could then target the recent high at 1.3150.
EUR/USD分析：欧元/美元期待关键经济指标 EUR/USD Analysis: Awaiting Key Economic Indicators
基本面分析：EUR/USD货币对受到各种经济指标和地缘政治事件的影响。本週市场最为期待的数据是美国的通胀报告，交易者认为这可能对美联储的货币政策决策产生重大影响。如果美联储采取鹰派立场，可能会加强美元，对EUR/USD产生下行压力。相反，鸽派情绪可能增强欧元的吸引力。此外，全球冲突及其可能的升级始终有力量影响投资者情绪。
从技术角度看，EUR/USD一直在与一个下降趋势线作斗争。尽管它在过去的几个交易日内一直保持在这一趋势中，但它正在摇摆不定。目前交易在此趋势线以下，近期前景似乎是看跌的。但是，如果该对在这一趋势上方收盘，可能会表明势头有所转变。在上方，阻力位于1.1075-1.1095区域，由历史断点和21日简单移动平均线（SMA）标记。超过这一点，1.1100的心理水平正逼近。如果看涨势头持续，该对可能会目标2022年3月的高点1.1185，甚至是最近的高点1.1275。另一方面，近期支撑位于最近的低点1.1010，55和100日SMA在1.1030附近提供了额外的支撑。
The EUR/USD currency pair has been under the influence of various economic indicators and geopolitical events. One of the most anticipated data releases is the US inflation report, which traders believe could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A hawkish stance from the Fed, indicating potential interest rate hikes, could bolster the US dollar, putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD. Conversely, a dovish sentiment might enhance the Euro’s appeal. Furthermore, global conflicts and their potential escalation always have the power to sway investor sentiment. Given that the Eurozone has its share of economic challenges, any adverse global event could push traders towards the perceived safety of the US dollar.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has been grappling with a descending trend line. While it has managed to stay within this trend for the past few sessions, it’s teetering on the edge. Currently trading below this trend line, the near-term outlook appears bearish. However, should the pair close above this trend, it might indicate a potential shift in momentum. On the upside, resistance is eyed at the 1.1075-1.1095 zone, marked by historical breakpoints and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Beyond this, the 1.1100 psychological level looms large. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair might target the March 2022 high at 1.1185 or even the recent peak at 1.1275. On the flip side, immediate support is seen near the recent low of 1.1010, with the 55 and 100-day SMAs offering additional support around 1.1030.
USD/JPY分析：等待关键经济指标 USD/JPY Analysis: Awaiting Key US Inflation Ahead
USD/JPY货币对近期经历了波动，交易者和投资者密切关注各种经济指标。最近的非农就业报告连续第二次未达到预期，导致USD/JPY下跌。失业率的下降，加上平均小时工资的增长，引发了关于美联储可能进一步加息的担忧。在国内，日本的经济数据也影响了该对的走势。日本央行仍然坚持其超宽松的货币政策，尽管通货膨胀率仍然较高。央行的立场是基于认为通胀是国际产生的，不需要政策转变。
从技术角度看，USD/JPY正在关键支撑和阻力水平附近徘徊。货币对目前正在一个范围内交易，交易者正在等待向任一方向的突破。关键支撑位于137.7水平，而阻力位则在143.5标记附近。在接下来的几天里，市场的焦点将转向美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。预期通胀率高于预期可能导致市场预期美联储进一步加息，可能会增强美元对日元的实力。相反，较低的通胀率可能会为市场提供一些缓解，导致USD/JPY上涨。
The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing fluctuations, with traders and investors closely monitoring various economic indicators. The recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report missed expectations for the second consecutive time, leading to a subsequent decline in the USD/JPY. The drop in unemployment rates, combined with higher average hourly earnings, has raised concerns about more potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Domestically, Japan’s economic data has also influenced the pair’s movement. The Bank of Japan remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, despite inflation remaining elevated. The central bank’s stance is based on the belief that inflation is internationally generated and doesn’t warrant a policy shift.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY is hovering around key support and resistance levels. The currency pair is currently trading within a range, with traders awaiting a breakout in either direction. Key support is identified at the 137.7 level, while resistance is seen around the 143.5 mark.
In the coming days, the market’s focus will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could lead to anticipations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, potentially strengthening the US dollar against the yen. Conversely, a lower inflation rate might provide relief to the markets, leading to a rally in the USD/JPY.
XAU/USD分析：黄金静待本周通胀数据 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Awaiting Inflation Data Ahead
近期，全球经济格局已成为黄金价格的重要驱动因素。随着美国通胀数据即将发布，交易员正在推测其对联邦储备系统货币政策决策的潜在影响。更为鹰派的立场可能会加强美元，对黄金产生下行压力。相反，鸽派情绪可能会增强黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。由于黄金通常被视为对抗经济不稳定的对冲，全球冲突的任何升级都可能导致大量投资者转向黄金。
从技术角度看，黄金正接近1929.00的关键支撑水平。跌破此水平可能意味着进一步的下跌，目标为1913.15。但是，克服1945.20的阻力可能为牛市复苏铺平了道路。
The US inflation and potential recession concern has been a significant driver for gold prices recently. With the US inflation data on the horizon, traders are speculating on its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A more hawkish stance could strengthen the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on gold. As gold is often seen as a hedge against economic instability, any escalation in global conflicts could see an influx of investors turning to the yellow metal.
From a technical standpoint, gold is approaching a pivotal support level at 1929.00. A breach below could signal further declines, targeting the 1913.15 mark. However, overcoming the 1945.20 resistance might pave the way for a bullish resurgence.
USD/CHF分析：市场观望美国通胀数据，支撑位受到关注 USD/CHF Analysis: Bulls Eyeing On US Inflation Data
USD/CHF货币对目前正在测试0.8720的关键支撑位，并从该水平反弹。该对的走势主要受到即将发布的美国通胀数据影响，交易者正在密切关注。如果通胀报告正面，可能会强化美元并推高美金反弹。从技术角度看，该对正在一个熊市交易模式，但最近从支撑位反弹表明可能出现潜在的牛市反转。如果该对能够保持在此支撑位上方，我们可能会看到进一步的上行动向，目标阻力位0.8825。然而，如果跌破支撑位，可能会标志着熊市趋势的继续。
The USD/CHF pair is currently testing a key support level at 0.8720, following a bounce off this level. The pair’s movement is largely influenced by the upcoming US inflation data, which traders are keenly watching. A positive inflation report could strengthen the US dollar and push the pair higher. From a technical perspective, the pair is trading within a bearish pattern, but the recent bounce off the support level suggests a potential bullish reversal. If the pair can maintain its position above this support level, we could see a further upward movement towards the resistance level at 0.8825. However, a break below the support could signal a continuation of the bearish trend.
EUR/USD分析：市场关注美国非农工资报告，关键支撑和阻力水平成焦点 EUR/USD Analysis: Market Eyes US Nonfarm Payrolls, Key Support And Resistance Levels In Focus
EUR/USD对正在经历轻微的下行压力，在关键的50天指数移动平均线（EMA）正上方稳定发展。市场关注1.10水平，这导致当前的噪音和不确定性。交易员们热切期待本周五的非农职位报告公布，这对欧元和美元之间的央行决策和利率差异具有深远影响。突破50天EMA可能是看跌信号，1.09可作为短期支撑。相反，1.11可能会成为阻力屏障，下一个目标是1.1250。预计周五波动性将增加，交易员应为增加的波动做好准备。
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing slight downward pressure, settling just above the critical 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). The market’s attention is on the 1.10 level, which has contributed to current noise and uncertainty. Traders are keenly awaiting the Friday nonfarm payroll announcement, which has far-reaching implications for central bank decisions and interest rate differentials between the Euro and the US Dollar. The breach of the 50-day EMA could signal bearish sentiment, with 1.09 acting as short-term support. Conversely, 1.11 may present a resistance barrier, with 1.1250 as the next target. Heightened volatility is expected on Friday, and traders should brace for increased fluctuations.
XAU/USD分析：美国国债收益率上升, 黄金面临下行压力 XAU/USD Analysis: Treasury Yields Rise And Retail Exposure Drop Trigger Gold Facing Pressure
黄金价格下跌，因为美国长期国债收益率上升，零售交易者变得更加看涨，这是未来可能进一步下跌的警告信号。在过去48小时内，黄金价格下跌了近1.7％，受到美国10年期和30年期债券上涨的影响。约76％的零售交易者看涨黄金，暗示价格可能会继续下跌。从技术上讲，XAU/USD正在测试1936的拐点，重点关注自2月份以来的上升趋势线。如果突破下方，将转向越来越看跌的前景，目标是1903的38.2％斐波那契回撤水平。
Gold prices have dipped as U.S. longer-term Treasury yields rose, with retail traders becoming more bullish, signaling potential further losses. Over the past 48 hours, gold prices have weakened by almost 1.7%, influenced by the rise in U.S. 10 and 30-year bonds. The IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) gauge shows about 76% of retail traders are net-long gold, hinting at a continued fall in prices. Technically, XAU/USD is testing the 1936 inflection point, with a focus on the rising trendline from February. A break under it would shift the outlook to increasingly bearish, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1903.
EUR/USD分析：美国信用评级下调，市场关注美国就业数据 EUR/USD Analysis: US Credit Rating Cut, Euro Bulls Ahead Of US Employment Clues
EUR/USD在中期主要上升趋势线的支撑下恢复了稳定，并倚靠50天SMA的支撑，为该对提供了积极的动能，有助于今天早盘的反弹。最近，该对寻求底部以便再次推高，并在RSI达到超卖水平后出现积极信号，预计在即将的交易中将增加积极压力。然而，该对在周二跌破1.1000支撑，进一步的损失仍在1.1100中期以下。从长期来看，只要在200天SMA上方，今天在1.0728，积极观点仍然不变。交易者需要密切关注周五 (2 Aug)美国即将发布的就业数据，这可能会显着影响价格走势。
EUR/USD has regained stability with the support of the main upward trend line in the medium term, leaning on the 50-day SMA, providing positive momentum for a bounce in early trading today. Recently, the pair sought a bottom to boost higher again, with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, expecting to double positive pressures in upcoming trading. However, the pair slipped back below the 1.1000 support on Tuesday, with further losses remaining while below the mid-1.1100s. In the longer run, the positive view remains unchanged while above the 200-day SMA, today at 1.0728. Traders need to keep a close eye on the upcoming US employment data on this Friday (4 Aug), which could significantly impact the price trend.
USD/JPY分析：多头掌握主导权, 市场关注日本央行政策和美国通胀 USD/JPY Analysis: Bulls Take Control. Eyes on BOJ Policy and US Inflation
USD/JPY货币对正处于多头趋势，投资者对日本央行（BOJ）的政策和美国通胀预期正在升温，货币对正交易在多周高点。日本央行稍早决定将其基准利率维持在-0.1%，并在2022年2月以来首次进行非计划性的操作，购买了3000亿日元（20亿美元）的日本政府债券（JGB），这都给日元带来了压力。另一方面，由于预计联邦储备系统在未来几个月将再次提高利率，美元正在获得上升动力。
从技术角度看，USD/JPY对已突破100小时移动平均线，表明强烈的多头倾向。该对正在一个多头通道形态内交易，表明短期内明显的多头意向。如果多头动能继续，该对可能会测试143的阻力位，甚至更高的144.4。然而，如果出现回调，熊方可能会在140.71附近或140.26的支持位以下寻求利润。
The USD/JPY currency pair is witnessing a bullish trend, trading at multi-week highs, as investors react to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy and US inflation expectations. The BOJ’s decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and its unscheduled operation to buy ¥300 billion ($2 billion) worth of Japanese government bonds (JGB) for the first time since February 2022 has put pressure on the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, the US dollar is gaining strength due to expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 100-hour moving average line, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. The pair is trading within a bullish channel formation, suggesting a significant short-term bullish bias. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair could test the resistance level at 143 or even higher at 144.4. However, if a pullback occurs, the bears may aim for profits around 140.71 or below the support at 140.26.
XAU/USD分析：黄金价格在移动平均线附近波动，上行趋势仍然持续 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Fluctuates Near Moving Average, Upward Trend Still Intact
黄金价格在经历了一段时间的窄幅波动后，现在正在移动平均线附近整固。尽管黄金价格在上周五的交易日中出现了下跌，但它仍然保持在1955美元以上的水平。从技术分析的角度看，黄金价格在1945.20美元的支持水平和1977美元的阻力水平之间波动。如果价格能够突破这个阻力水平，那么黄金可能会进一步上涨。然而，如果价格跌破这个支持水平，那么黄金可能会进一步下跌至1900心里关口。交易者需要密切关注这两个关键水平，以便做出正确的交易决策。
Gold price is trading around the moving average after a period of tense fluctuations. Despite a decline in trading last Friday, it still maintains a level above 1955 USD. From a technical analysis perspective, the gold price is fluctuating between the support level of 1945.20 USD and the resistance level of 1977 USD. If the price can break through this resistance level, gold may rise further. However, if the price falls below this support level, then gold may decline to next psychological support 1900. Traders need to keep a close eye on these two key levels to make the right trading decisions.
USD/JPY分析：日本央行政策影响，美元/日元走低 USD/JPY Analysis: BOJ Policy Fundamentally Changed, USD/JPY Moves Lower
美元/日元对在日本央行政策影响下迅速走低，目前交易在139.00附近。日本央行可能对10年期日本政府债券的0.5%上限进行调整，这一消息在市场中引发了日元升值的预期。在技术面上，美元/日元对已经突破了2022年10月至2023年1月下跌的50%斐波那契回撤位，现在看跌的MACD信号可能会推动价格进一步下跌。如果价格跌破138.00-137.80的水平，可能会测试到136.70的200日移动平均线和38.2%的斐波那契回撤位。
The USD/JPY pair swiftly moves lower under the influence of the Bank of Japan’s policy, currently trading around 139.00. The Bank of Japan may adjust the 0.5% cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds, which has sparked a rise in the yen in the market. On the technical front, the USD/JPY pair has broken through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from October 2022 to January 2023, and now the bearish MACD signal may push the price further down. If the price breaks through the 138.00-137.80 level, it may test the 200-day moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 136.70. However, only when the Bank of Japan takes a dovish stance will the USD buyers of the become active again.
GBP/USD分析：美元走弱, 美联储决议没惊喜 GBP/USD Analysis: Weakening US Dollar, No Element Of Surprise Fed's Decision
GBP/USD对目前呈上升趋势，在中期1.2900以上交易，主要原因是美元走弱。该对的表现受到对美联储决定的期待影响。市场完全预期25个基点的利率上升，但外汇市场的方向将取决于是否期待基于指导的另一次利率上升的期望是否坚实或回落。在技术面上，该对已经从最近的高点回落，但总体趋势仍然是美元走弱。
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing an upward trend, trading above the mid-1.2900s, largely due to a weakening US dollar. The pair’s performance is influenced by the expected Federal Reserve’s decision. The market fully expects a 25 basis point interest rate rise, but the key to the foreign exchange market direction will be whether expectations for another rate hike firm or recede based on the guidance. On the technical front, the pair has seen a pullback from its recent highs, but the overall trend remains one of dollar weakness.
XAU/USD分析：密切关注全球央行公告, 黄金价格波动 XAU/USD Analysis: Market Uncertainties Causes Gold Price Fluctuates
黄金价格在市场不确定性中继续波动，黄金价格在1954美元的支持水平附近交易。价格行为暗示了看跌修正，如果价格突破1932美元和1920美元的支持水平，可能会有进一步的下降。然而，总体趋势仍然看涨，关键的阻力水平在1972美元和1985美元。市场正在密切关注全球央行即将发布的公告，这可能会显着影响价格走势。美元的强劲和美联储的货币政策决策是影响黄金市场的关键因素。建议交易者谨慎行事，密切关注市场动态。
Gold prices continue to fluctuate amid market uncertainties, with the price of the yellow metal trading around the $1954 support level. The price action suggests a bearish correction, with the potential for further declines if the price breaks below the $1932 and $1920 support levels. However, the overall trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at $1972 and $1985. The market is closely watching the upcoming announcements from global central banks, which could significantly impact the price trajectory. The strength of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are key factors influencing the gold market. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor market developments.
USD/CHF分析：等待美联储决议, 强势美元持续 USD/CHF Analysis: Awaiting Fed's Decision Along With Strong US Dollar
USD/CHF对目前在强劲美元的推动下持续上涨，并美联储决定前显示出混合信号。该对的表现受到美元的强势和对美联储决定的期待影响。预计由于这些顶级数据事件，该对本周将出现重大波动。在技术面上，该对显示出混合信号，表明可能存在上行和下行的可能性。建议交易者密切关注美联储的决定，这可能会显着影响该对的轨迹。
The USD/CHF pair is currently gaining on the back of a strong US dollar, with oscillators showing mixed signals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The pair’s performance is influenced by the strength of the US dollar and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The pair is expected to witness heavy volatility this week due to these top-tier data events. On the technical front, the pair is showing mixed signals, indicating a potential for both upward and downward movements. Traders are advised to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s decision, which could significantly impact the pair’s trajectory.
EUR/USD分析：货币政策分歧, 等待关键经济数据 EUR/USD Analysis: Awaiting Key Data To End Interest Rate Hike
EUR/USD对目前处于边缘，在1.1100支持区附近交易，经过三天的连续下跌。该对受到美元的复苏和欧盟数据不佳的影响，导致出现看跌偏见。受到即将到来的欧元区和美国PMI数据，以及欧洲中央银行（ECB）和美联储（Fed）的货币政策影响。ECB和Fed都被广泛预期将宣布0.25%的利率上调，但未来的指导将是关键。由于这些顶级数据事件，预计该对本周将出现重大波动。在技术面上，如果日线收盘低于17个月前的支持线1.1140，可能会引导EUR/USD熊市走向4月的高点1.1095。
The EUR/USD pair is currently on the edge, hovering above the 1.1100 support zone, after a three-day losing streak. The pair has been influenced by the US dollar’s recovery and unimpressive EU data, which has led to a bearish bias. The pair’s performance is expected to be influenced by the upcoming Eurozone and US PMI data, as well as the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Both the ECB and the Fed are widely expected to announce a 0.25% rate hike, but future guidance will be key to watch. The pair is expected to witness heavy volatility this week due to these top-tier data events. On the technical front, a daily closing below the 17-month-old previous support line around 1.1140 could direct EUR/USD bears toward April’s peak of 1.1095.
美元走软下, 黄金复苏：2023年7月21日XAU/USD的全面分析 Gold's Strength On Softer US Dollar. A Comprehensive Analysis Of XAU/USD For July 21, 2023
黄金市场正在回稳，价格稳步攀升至1970美元以上。这一上升趋势主要是由于美元走软，使得黄金成为更具吸引力的投资。然而，从价格走势(price action)来看，下行短线目标于1973.80以下，目标定于1965.00、1957.40和1950.60。另一方面，如果价格在1973.80以上, 有可以开展新一轮多头走势, 目标1979.07、1987.57和1995.77。相对强弱指数（RSI）呈现看跌，预示着下行的可能。然而，市场也显示出韧性，黄金价格在1970美元以上的较高水平保持稳定。这表明，虽然可能存在短期波动，但黄金的整体趋势仍然看涨。
The gold market is experiencing a resurgence, with prices steadily climbing above the $1,970 mark. This upward trend is largely due to the softening of the US dollar, which has made gold a more attractive investment. However, the market is not without its fluctuations. Now the price action suggests a downward momentum with short positions below 1973.80 and targets at 1965.00, 1957.40, and 1950.60. On the other hand, long positions above 1973.80 could target 1979.07, 1987.57, and 1995.77. The RSI is bearish, indicating a potential downturn. However, the market is also showing signs of resilience, with the gold price holding at higher ground above $1,970. This suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish.
EUR/USD分析：欧美货币政策分歧下的修正波 EUR/USD Analysis: Potential Correction Wave Along With Diverging Monetary Policies
EUR/USD对当前正在经历从上周高点以来的修正，正在与100小时SMA支持断点（大约在1.1225区域）进行调整。该对已经打破了4小时支持结构，显示出看跌偏见。如果突破1.12，可能进一步有下行空间，对W形态的颈线产生压力。该对的表现继续受到通胀担忧和美联储与欧洲中央银行货币政策分歧的影响。作为反美元指标，欧元的轨迹与美元对其他货币的表现密切相关。虽然潜在的回调提供了购买机会，但建议谨慎行事。
The EUR/USD pair is currently undergoing a correction from last week’s highs, flirting with the 100-hour SMA support breakpoint around the 1.1225 area. The pair has broken the 4-hour support structure, indicating a bearish bias. A break of 1.12 could seal the deal for the bears, putting pressure on the W-formation’s neckline. The pair’s performance continues to be influenced by inflation concerns and the diverging monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. As the anti-dollar, the Euro’s trajectory is closely tied to the performance of the US dollar against other currencies. While potential pullbacks present buying opportunities, caution is advised.
GBP/USD分析：在美国零售销售增长的同时，英国通胀数据逊预期 GBP/USD UK Inflation Data Falls Below Expectation Along With Rising US Retail Sales
GBP/USD在英国通胀数据逊预期的情况下受到压力。该对目前在1.30水平以下，支持水平在1.2970和1. 2810。该对的运动主要受即将发布的英国通胀数据和美国零售销售报告的影响。美元指数（DXY）正在试图在发布美国零售销售报告后稳定在100水平以上，该报告显示6月份的月度增长为0.2%。 GBP/USD对可能在发布英国通胀数据后看到更明显着的趋势。如果通胀下跌，可能会对英格兰银行施加压力，放松货币政策，这将对英镑不利。
The GBP/USD pair has been under pressure as traders anticipate further catalysts. The pair is currently trading below 1.30 level, with support levels at 1.2970 and 1.2810. The pair’s movement is largely influenced by the upcoming UK inflation data and US retail sales report. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to settle above the 100 level following the release of the US retail sales report, which showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June. The GBP/USD pair could see significant movement following the release of the UK inflation data. If inflation drops, it could put pressure on the Bank of England to ease the monetary policy, which would be bearish for the GBP.
黄金的韧性：全面分析XAU/USD的表现和未来展望 Gold's Resilience: A Comprehensive Analysis Of XAU/USD's Performance And Future Outlook
黄金市场显示出看涨趋势的迹象。贵金属一直受益于较弱的美元，后者由于薪资增长和CPI以及PPI均低于预期而下滑至100以下。 DXY（美元指数）正在从其114的峰值经历经典的ABC修正，并且在RSI上极度超卖，这预示着金属和矿工的大规模反弹即将到来。
另一方面，黄金似乎目前被限制在1965美元左右。它需要超过2000美元，以为冲击记录高点做准备。支持仍然在1900美元。尽管贵金属在美元下跌的推动下已经大幅上涨，但他们似乎已经准备好至少进行短期反转。任何回调都可能提供购买机会，特别是如果黄金能够突破2000美元。建议在黄金1890美元以下设置止损。
The Gold market is showing signs of a bullish trend. The precious metal has been benefiting from a weaker dollar, which has been sliding below 100 due to weaker-than-expected payrolls and both the CPI and PPI. The DXY (Dollar Index) is undergoing a classic ABC correction from its peak at 114 and is extremely oversold on the RSI, which signals a massive rally in metals and miners ahead.
On the other hand, Gold appears to be capped around $1965 at the moment. It needs to surpass $2000 to set the stage for an assault on the record high. Support remains at $1900. While the metals and miners have spiked higher aided by the dump in the dollar, they appear to be ready for at least a short-term reversal. Any pullbacks could present buying opportunities, especially if Gold can take out $2000. Stops are recommended below $1890 in Gold.
美元/日元：在动荡游走 USD/JPY: Navigating The Turbulence
美元/日元对已经经历了显着的下跌趋势，标志着连续第五天的下跌。该对在欧洲早盘交易时段达到了近一个月的低点，停在3月至6月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤水平附近。由于市场预期美联储将在7月份加息25个基点后结束其加息周期，美元周围的熊市压力持续不减。
另一方面，日元（JPY）得到了市场预期日本央行（BoJ）将在本月尽快调整其超宽松政策设置的支持。这也导致了过去一周美元/日元对的下跌。然而，股票市场的总体积极基调正在削弱对避险货币日元的需求，并为现货价格提供了一些支持。交易员们也在美国消费者通胀数据发布之前选择观望。美国CPI报告对美元的影响将为美元/日元对提供一些有意义的动力。同时，小时图上的相对强弱指数（RSI）极度超卖，有助于限制进一步的下跌。
技术分析表明，美元/日元对的最小阻力路径是向下。然而，熊市可能仍会等待一些日内整固或适度反弹后再下注。 38.2%的斐波那契水平可能保护即时下行，如果突破139.00水平，将被视为熊市的新触发点。然后，该对可能会加速贬值，测试低于138.00的水平，代表61.8%的斐波那契水平。
The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing a significant downtrend, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline. The pair has reached a nearly one-month low during the early European session, pausing near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June rally. The bearish pressure surrounding the USD remains unabated due to speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its rate-hiking cycle following a 25 bps liftoff in July.
On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is drawing support from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its ultra-loose policy settings as soon as this month. This has contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s downfall over the past week. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY and lending some support to spot prices.
Traders are also seen waiting on the sidelines ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due for release later during the early North American session. The crucial US CPI report should influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly charts is seen helping limit the downside, at least for the time being.
Technical analysis suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. However, bears might still wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest bounce before placing fresh bets from current levels. The 38.2% Fibo level could protect the immediate downside ahead of the 139.00 mark, which if broken will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The pair might then accelerate the depreciating move towards testing sub-138.00 levels, representing the 61.8% Fibo level.
在看涨动能和美国低通胀推动下，黄金价格（XAU/USD）瞄准2000美元 Gold Price (XAU/USD) Eyes $2000 With Bullish Momentum And Lower US Inflation
黄金市场（XAU/USD）显示出明显上升动能。金价一直在稳步上升，达到自6月中旬以来的最高水平，这主要受到美国通胀低于预期的推动。XAU/USD黄金价格上涨至1960美元的阻力位，市场正朝着实现2%的周涨幅和7.3%的年增长率的目标前进。黄金价格已经完成了一个积极的模式，确认突破了1945.20的水平，这支持了在接下来的交易日实现更多上涨的可能性。下一个目标位于1977.25，突破这个水平, 价格可能进一步冲向2000美元/盎司的心理阻力位。然而，如果黄金价格回落至1920美元的支撑位，可能会表明熊市的控制力更强。
Gold market (XAU/USD) is showing positive signs. The price of gold has been steadily rising, reaching its best levels since mid-June, driven by lower-than-expected US inflation. The XAU/USD gold price rose towards the $1960 resistance level, and the market is on track to achieve weekly gains of 2% and an annual increase of 7.3%. The gold price has completed a positive pattern, confirming the breach of the 1945.20 level, which supports the chances of further rise in the upcoming sessions. The next target is at 1977.25, and breaching it could lead to a rally towards the psychological resistance level of $2000 an ounce. However, if the gold price returns to the $1920 support level, it could indicate a stronger bearish control.
欧元/美元的牛市摆动：超买条件满足和潜在修正 EUR/USD's Bullish Swing: A Closer Look At The Overbought Conditions And Potential Corrections
EUR/USD在1.1150的水平上再次创出新高，并继续上涨。日内技术支持位于1.1096和1.1125的水平，牛市的下一个目标位于1.1185的水平。然而，值得注意的是，动量已经在H4、日线和周线时间框架图表上达到了极度超买的条件。这表明，回调或修正可能随时发生。如果出现向下突破，熊市的下一个目标位于1.0901和1.0876的水平。只有在动态支持平均线（大约在1.0900的水平）以下持续突破，才会将展望更改为更为负面。
EUR/USD pair has made another swing high at the level of 1.1150 and continues to move upwards. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.1096 and 1.1125, with the next target for bulls at the level of 1.1185. However, it’s important to note that the momentum has hit extremely overbought conditions on H4, daily, and weekly time frame charts. This suggests that a pullback or correction might occur at any time. If a breakout lower occurs, the next target for bears is seen at the levels of 1.0901 and 1.0876. A sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.
GBP/USD：经济不确定性中的看涨反转 GBP/USD: A Bullish Reversal With Economic Uncertainties
最近，GBP/USD对已经看到了显著的涨幅，可能出现看涨反转的可能性。尽管经济不确定性仍在持续，而且该对之前的趋势是下跌的，但是这一点并没有阻止其收益的增加。Ichimoku云分析表明，该对目前正在测试一个关键的阻力级别。成功突破这个级别可能会标志着看涨趋势的反转。然而，该对的表现仍然受到各种经济因素的影响，包括即将发布的CPI。经济学家预测，基础通胀将会减速，这可能会影响该对的轨迹。投资者建议密切关注这些发展，并相应地调整他们的策略
The GBP/USD pair has recently seen significant gains, demonstrating a potential for a bullish reversal. This comes despite the ongoing economic uncertainties and the pair’s previous downtrend. The Ichimoku cloud analysis indicates that the pair is currently testing a critical resistance level. A successful break above this level could signal a bullish trend reversal. However, the pair’s performance is still subject to various economic factors, including the upcoming CPI release. Economists are predicting a deceleration in underlying inflation, which could impact the pair’s trajectory. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.
USD/JPY下行趋势：看看美联储政策和日本银行立场的影响 USD/JPY Downtrend: A Look At The Impact Of Fed Policy And BoJ Stance
USD/JPY对当前正在经历下行趋势，扩大了其从年初至今的高点145. 00心理水平以上的回调滑动。围绕美元的看跌情绪主要是来自人们推测美联储（Fed）正在接近其政策紧缩周期的尾声。美国就业细节和纽约联储的调查表明，6月份美国经济增加的就业岗位最少在2.5年内，一年的消费者通胀预期下降到3.8%，这是自2021年4月以来的最低水平。这可能会让美联储软化其鹰派立场，导致美国国债收益率进一步下降，并将美元拖至两个月低点。
另一方面，日元得到了最近10年期日本政府债券（JGB）收益率上升到10周高点和预期日本银行（BoJ）将在7月调整其政策的支持。然而，日本银行已经排除了任何改变超宽松政策设置的可能性，并表示没有立即改变收益曲线控制（YCC）政策的计划。USD/JPY对目前在140.70-140.65区域交易，标志着5月-6月涨势的38.2%斐波那契回调水平。一旦突破这个水平，将为当前的修正性下跌阶段铺平道路。另一方面，如果回到141.00以上, 就要回去到141.30-141.40区域附近的阻力。
The USD/JPY pair is currently experiencing a downward trend, with the pair extending its retracement slide from the year-to-date peak levels just above the 145.00 psychological mark. The bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar is primarily due to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. The US employment details and the New York Fed’s monthly survey have indicated that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2.5 years in June and the one-year consumer inflation expectation dropped to 3.8% in June, the lowest level since April 2021. This could allow the US central bank to soften its hawkish stance, leading to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and dragging the USD to a two-month low.
On the other hand, the Japanese yen is drawing support from the recent rise in the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield to a 10-week high and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will adjust its policy in July. However, the BoJ has ruled out the possibility of any change in ultra-loose policy settings and signaled no immediate plans to alter the yield curve control (YCC) policy.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 140.70-140.65 region, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally. A convincing break below this level will set the stage for an extension of the ongoing corrective decline. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery back above the 141.00 mark might confront some resistance near the 141.30-141.40 area.
XAU/USD 黄金测试关键阻力 Gold's Crucial Test: Approaching Resistance With Bullish Indicators
XAU/USD目前正测试阻力，现在黄金在1929美元阻力水平附近徘徊。尽管随机振荡器发出负面信号，但过去一周黄金价格的韧性存在看涨趋势。然而，如果跌破1913.15美元，可能会确认向下的波动，下一个主要目标是1873. 50美元。另一方面，如果突破1929美元的水平，可能会推动价格向1945. 20美元的重要阻力水平推进。市场的方向将受到这些关键水平的影响，交易者应密切监控它们。
The XAU/USD pair is currently facing a critical test as it trades around the resistance level of $1929. Despite the negative signals from the stochastic oscillator, the resilience of gold prices in the past week suggests a potential for a bullish trend. However, a break below $1913.15 could confirm a bearish wave towards the next main target of $1873.50. On the other hand, breaching the $1929 level could push the price towards the significant resistance at $1945.20. The market’s direction will be influenced by these key levels, and traders should monitor them closely.
EUR/USD在十字路口：ECB和Fed政策之战 EUR/USD At A Crossroads: The Battle Between ECB And Fed Policies
EUR/USD对当前面临关键时刻，有重要因素影响其轨迹。EUR/USD正在试图重新突破1.0900的即时阻力，因为美元正在下跌。这是因为美联储预计将在7月份将利率提高25个基点，原因是美国的就业增加超出预期。这激发了对美联储将进一步提高利率的希望。
另一方面，欧洲中央银行（ECB）主席克里斯蒂娜·拉加德也预计将提高利率，因为欧洲的通胀压力仍然顽固。德国月度工业生产已经減少收缩0.2%，这表明制造业可能会恢复。市场现在正在关注即将到来的美国非农就业人数（NFP）数据。如果数据显示美国劳动力市场增加22.5萬的职位，而可能失业率下降到3.6%以下。这可能会进一步加强美元并对EUR/USD对施加压力。
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a critical juncture, with significant factors influencing its trajectory. The pair is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 1.0900 amid a decline in the US dollar. This comes as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in July due to better-than-anticipated employment additions in the US. This has sparked hopes of more interest rate hikes from the Fed.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is also expected to raise interest rates as inflationary pressures in the old continent are still stubborn. German monthly industrial production has contracted by 0.2%, which indicates that the manufacturing sector could recover ahead.
The market is now focusing on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. If the data shows that the US labor market has added 225k jobs, it could lead to a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. This could further strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY 美元/日元飙升至新高：日本工资上涨和看涨动能在起作用 USD/JPY Skyrockets To New Highs: Rising Wages In Japan And Bullish Momentum In Play
美元/日元对一直处于看涨行情，创下了新历史高点，并显示出强烈的上升动能。该对已成功超过预期的145.00目标，有可能继续上升至146.10。在EMA50附近有支持，预计将持续上升趋势。在基本面上，日本银行的政策正常化得到了日本广泛上涨的工资的支持，这是自1993年以来的最快工资增长。这种工资增长比最初认为的更广泛，小型和中型企业也参与了这一趋势。然而，日本银行将需要比单一的工资打印更多的证据来解开多年的支持性货币政策。
The USD/JPY pair has been on a bullish run, recording new historical highs and showing strong positive momentum. The pair has successfully surpassed the anticipated target of 145.00, with the potential to continue its rise towards 146.10. This upward trend is supported by the EMA50 and is expected to persist, although temporary sideways fluctuations may occur due to stochastic negativity. On the fundamental front, the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization is being bolstered by broadly rising wages across Japan, marking the fastest wage growth since 1993. This wage increase is more widespread than initially thought, with small and medium enterprises also participating in the trend. However, the Bank of Japan will require more evidence than a single wage print to unwind years of supportive monetary policy.
欧元/美元分析：经济波动下 - 欧元会反弹吗？ EUR/USD Analysis: Navigating Economic Waves - Will The Euro Bounce Back?
欧元/美元对目前正在经历下行压力，交易接近1.0880，这是由于包括德国出口数据不佳和美联储相比欧洲央行(ECB)更鹰派的立场等一系列因素。尽管交易日表现淡靜，但该对已在1.0800水平以上找到支持。美元上升的韧性也影响了欧元的表现，尽管昨天是美国独立日假期，美元仍能保持稳定。展望未来，五月份欧元区生产者价格指数（PPI）和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议记录将对即时方向至关重要。野村的分析师建议购买欧元/美元，目标为8月底的1.12，并预计明年将进一步上升至1.16。
The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a downward pressure, trading near 1.0880, due to a combination of factors including downbeat German export data and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve compared to the European Central Bank (ECB). The pair has found support above the 1.0800 level, despite the lackluster trading day. The Euro’s performance was also affected by the US dollar’s resilience, which managed to remain steady despite the US Independence Day holiday. Looking forward, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be crucial for immediate directions. Analysts from Nomura recommend buying EUR/USD with a target of 1.12 by the end of August and expect a further advance to 1.16 next year.
BTC/USD瞄准$38,000：积极的市场指标和ETF前景推动牛市动能 BTC/USD Eyes $38,000: Bullish Momentum Fuelled By Positive Market Indicators And ETF Prospects
BTC/USD货币对显示出牛市趋势向上的迹象，市场指标指向可能上升到$38,000左右。该货币对在过去30天内已经增长了5.44%，年度累计增长为6.35%。预计在6月开始的牛市讲继续到7月。移动平均线收敛/发散（MACD）指标和SuperTrend指标都显示出买入信号，表明一个持续的上升趋势。最近重新夺回$31,000的阻力位和可能突破$32,000的水平可能进一步推动BTC向$35,000和$38,000的关键阻力位。然而，交易者获利可能导致行情冷却。另一方面，BlackRock已经向SEC重新提交了其现货比特币ETF的提案，这可能为更多的机构投资者进入加密市场打开大门。
The BTC/USD pair is showing promising signs of a bullish trend, with market indicators pointing towards a potential rise to the $38,000 mark. The pair has seen a 5.44% growth in the last 30 days, with a cumulative yearly gain of 6.35%. The bullish outlook, which began in June, is expected to continue into July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator and the SuperTrend indicator both signal a buy, suggesting a sustained uptrend. The recent reclaiming of the $31,000 resistance level and the potential breach of the $32,000 level could further propel BTC towards key resistance levels at $35,000 and $38,000. However, high trader profits could lead to a cooldown. In other news, BlackRock has resubmitted its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal to the SEC, which could open the door for more institutional investors to enter the crypto market.
USD/JPY再向新高：积极的美国数据和日本央行鸽派立场推动牛市动能 USD/JPY Soars To New Heights: Bullish Momentum Fuelled By Positive US Data And Dovish BoJ Stance
USD/JPY货币对继续展现出牛市趋势，创下新的历史高点，并在日内牛市通道内移动。这得到了美国积极的数据和日本央行的鸽派货币政策的支持。预计该对将超过145.00的水平，为继续上升至146.10打开道路。然而，由于随机指标的负面影响，可能会出现暂时的横向波动。如果价格跌破144.10，可能会阻止牛市浪潮，并将价格置于修正性的熊市压力之下。预计今天的交易范围在144.00的支持和145.60的阻力之间。
The USD/JPY pair continues to exhibit a bullish trend, recording new historical highs and moving within an intraday bullish channel. This is supported by positive US data and the Bank of Japan’s dovish monetary policy. The pair is expected to surpass the 145.00 level, opening the way for a continued rise towards 146.10. However, temporary sideways fluctuations may occur due to stochastic negativity. A break below 144.10 could halt the bullish wave and put the price under correctional bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 144.00 support and 145.60 resistance.
XAU/USD 在美国利率上升和鹰派中央银行的影响下，XAU/USD面临下行压力 XAU/USD Faces Downward Pressure With The Rising US Yields And Hawkish Central Banks
黄金价格目前连续第四天呈下降趋势，XAU/USD对停在关键的1900美元大关。这种下降趨勢主要由美元走强驱动，这得益于美联储的鹰派前景和美国国债收益率的飙升。欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行等其他主要中央银行的鹰派立场也促使资金流向非收益黄金。然而，全球经济前景的恶化和对美中关系恶化的担忧可能会为避险的XAU/USD提供一些支持。交易者应密切关注1895美元的支持水平，因为一旦突破，可能会加强看跌观点，并向200日移动平均线附近的1855美元下滑铺平道路。
Gold prices are currently experiencing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, with the XAU/USD pair hovering just above the critical $1900 mark. This decline is primarily driven by the strengthening US dollar, which has been bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and the surge in US Treasury bond yields. The hawkish stance of other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, has also contributed to the shift away from the non-yielding gold. However, the deteriorating global economic outlook and concerns about worsening US-China relations could provide some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders should closely monitor the $1895 support level, as a breakdown could reinforce the bearish outlook and set the stage for a slump towards the 200-day moving average near $1855.
GBP/USD：在经济不确定性和技术指标中导航市场波动 GBP/USD: Navigating Market Volatility Amid Economic Uncertainties And Technical Indicators
GBP/USD货币对目前正在处于一个具有挑战性的市场环境，该对货币对交易在1.2650水平以下。由于美联储鹰派前景和美元强势。该对货币对最近回到38.2%的斐波那契回撤水平以下，暗示着前景看跌。另一方面，英镑受到英格兰银行（BoE）激进的政策收紧带来的拖累。市场也担心由于高通胀和飙升的利率，英国可能朝着衰退的方向前进。同時, 英镑的投机性购买以创纪录的速度增加，如果市场转向，可能会加剧未来的损失。然而，如果美国汇率反弹消失，或者如果美联储首选的核心通胀指数进一步软化，英镑可能会反弹。
The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a challenging market environment, with the pair trading below the 1.2650 level. The pair is under selling pressure due to the hawkish outlook of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar. The pair is vulnerable below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest uptrend, suggesting a bearish outlook. On the other hand, the British pound is weighed down by concerns about economic headwinds from aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). The market is also concerned about the UK heading towards a recession due to high inflation and soaring interest rates. Speculative buying of the pound has increased at a record rate, which could exacerbate future losses if the market turns. However, the pound could rebound if the current rebound in US exchange rates fizzles out or if the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation softens further.
原油价格：在中央银行决策和供应问题之间的拉锯战中导航 Crude Oil Outlook: Navigating The Tug Of War Between Central Bank Decisions And Supply Concerns
原油价格目前受到压力，主要是由于市场对中央银行决策预期以及对供应问题的担忧。欧洲央行（ECB）和美联储预计将保持其鹰派立场，可能会在未来提高利率。这可能会抑制全球需求，对油价产生进一步压力。在技术面上，布伦特原油正在关注71.50美元的支撑水平，如果看跌动能持续，可能会下跌至67.50美元。与此同时，WTI原油价格正在接近67美元的枢轴点，这在过去一直是一个重要水平。如果价格在这个水平下方收盘，可能会触发一次向62美元的抛售。在供应方面，可以从两个月的期货价格微小的逆差中看出，沙特阿拉伯7月份开始减少产量，所以市场正考虑供应略微过剩的情况。
Crude oil prices are currently under pressure due to the anticipation of central bank decisions and concerns about supply. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve are expected to maintain their hawkish stance, with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon. This could dampen global demand and put further pressure on oil prices. On the technical front, Brent crude is eyeing $71.50 as the next level of support, with a drop to $67.50 possible if bearish momentum continues. Meanwhile, WTI crude prices are approaching a familiar pivot point at $67, which has acted as a significant level in the past. A convincing close below this level could trigger an extended sell-off towards $62. On the supply side, despite Saudi Arabia’s pledge to reduce output from July, the market is factoring in a slightly oversupplied situation, as indicated by the shallow contango in the two-month spread.
XAU/USD：在预期的围绕美联储国会证词的波动中测量关键技术水平 XAU/USD: Navigating Key Technical Levels Amid Anticipated Volatility Surrounding Fed's Congressional Testimony
EUR/USD货币对目前处于一个关键的位置，市场关注点集中在美国通胀数据，美联储的公告，以及欧洲央行的利率决定。预计美联储将维持利率，但可能会有鹰派惊喜。预计欧洲央行将提高25个基点的利率，但其指导方针可能偏向鸽派。EUR/USD的风险平衡似乎在短期内偏向下行。在技术面上，EUR/USD已从五月的高点大幅下调，跌破了一个重要的趋势线。看涨投资者需要注意汇率能否在1.0750-1. 0800的阻力位以上。如果卖方将价格压低并突破1.0640-1.0600的支持位，这可能会使看跌者有信心目标心理水平1.0500。
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a precarious position, with market attention focused on US inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s announcement, and the ECB’s interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to maintain rates, but a hawkish surprise could be in store. The ECB is anticipated to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points, but its guidance may lean dovish. The balance of risks for EUR/USD appears to be tilted to the downside in the short term. On the technical front, EUR/USD has corrected sharply lower from its May highs, dipping below an important trendline. EUR/USD is trading above the resistance at 1.0750-1.0800. If the sell side manage to drive prices lower and take out support at 1.0640-1.0600, this could move forward to the psychological 1.0500 handle.
XAU/USD - 在鹰派联储立场下，黄金价格面临下行压力：关注关键技术水平 XAU/USD - Gold Prices Face Downward Pressure Amid Hawkish Fed Tone: Key Technical Levels To Watch
黄金市场目前承压，XAU/USD已经跌破关键支持位。这主要是由于美联储鹰派言论暗示进一步的利率 hikes，这给黄金价格带来了压力。在技术面上，黄金已经形成了一系列的低点，表明了一个熊市趋势。如果黄金跌破1900美元的心理关口，可能会进一步打开向下至1868美元的关键支持位的大门。另一方面，如果黄金能够重新站稳1900美元以上的脚步，这可能会缓解即时的卖压，并将1930美元的阻力位重新纳入考虑范围。与此同时，美国大型科技公司的走势和日本银行对货币政策的观望态度增加了其中的复杂性。
The gold market is currently under pressure, with XAU/USD breaking below key support levels. This is largely due to hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suggesting further rate hikes, which have weighed on gold prices. On the technical front, gold has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. A break below the psychological level of US$1900 could potentially open the door for further losses towards the next key support level at US$1868. On the flip side, if gold manages to reclaim its footing above US$1900, this could alleviate immediate selling pressure and bring the resistance level of US$1930 back into focus. Meanwhile, the resilience of the US mega-cap tech sector and the Bank of Japan’s wait-and-see approach to monetary policy add further complexity to the market dynamics.
GBP/USD：中央银行对通货膨胀和利率預期上升, 英磅看漲 GBP/USD: Evaluating The Uptrend Amid Central Banks’ Stance On Inflation And Interest Rates
GBP/USD货币对保持上升轨迹，自去年9月以来连续创下新高。市场密切关注支撑线，包括200天移动平均线、下降趋势线支撑和Ichimoku，因为如果出现回调，它们可能会产生更高的低点，1.300水平被视为阻力。在基本面上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近分享了鹰派的展望，表示通货膨胀的战斗远未结束，并暗示利率可能上升。然而，鲍威尔强调数据在指导决策中的重要性，因此美联储提供了一种不太果断且更为谨慎的方法。市场现在将注意力转向英格兰银行即将到来的利率决定，普遍预计将继续收紧周期。同时，美元在隔夜出现小幅下跌（-0.45％），因为国债收益率削减了早期增长，收盘基本不变或略有上升。在即将召开的会议上，25个基点的利率增加几乎得到确认，终端利率预期设定为6％，GBP/USD对似乎处于等待中央银行进一步暗示的横盘格局。
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an ascending trend, marked by consecutive higher highs and higher lows since September of the previous year. Support lines, including the 200-day Moving Average, a declining trendline support, and Ichimoku, are monitored closely, as they could generate a higher low if a pullback occurs. The 1.300 level is a critical point for any bullish momentum reversal. Fundamentally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently shared a hawkish outlook, stating that the battle against inflation is far from over and suggesting that interest rates are likely to escalate. However, Powell highlighted the importance of data in guiding decisions, thus offering a less decisive and more cautious approach by the Fed. The market’s attention is now shifting to the Bank of England’s imminent interest rate verdict, which is largely anticipated to continue the tightening cycle. In the meanwhile, the US dollar experienced a slight decline (-0.45%) overnight as Treasury yields trimmed early advances, closing mostly unchanged to moderately higher. With a 25 basis points rate increase nearly confirmed in the forthcoming meeting, and terminal rate expectations set at 6%, the GBP/USD pair appears to be in a holding pattern awaiting further cues from central banks.
XAU/USD：在预期的围绕美联储国会证词的波动中测量关键技术水平 XAU/USD: Navigating Key Technical Levels Amid Anticipated Volatility Surrounding Fed's Congressional Testimony
XAU/USD 面临显著的技术阻力和支持水平，其中50天移动平均线、水平阻力区和1950. 00水平成为关键阻力。相反，1925.06、水平支持区和1900. 00水平視为重要支持。在基本面上，市场期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美国众议院金融服务委员会作证，届时他将向国会提交半年度货币政策报告。他的回应，特别是关于美联储的货币政策行动及其影响，可能会受到密切审查。此外，其他美联储官员也将作证，可能为投资者提供更清晰的前景。目前，市场预期在美联储11月会议上额外加息略少于25个基点。然而，强调以数据驱动的决策仍然至关重要，这表明结果可能从长期维持利率到更积极的加息不等。这种不确定性可能会引发金市的波动，并影响XAU/USD对的走势。。
The XAU/USD pair faces notable technical resistance and support levels, with the 50-day Moving Average, a horizontal resistance zone, and the 1950.00 level as the key resistances. On the flip side, 1925.06, a horizontal support region, and the 1900.00 level emerge as vital supports. On the fundamental side, market participants are keenly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, where he will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. His responses, particularly regarding the Fed’s monetary policy actions and their implications, are likely to be closely scrutinized. Moreover, other Federal Reserve officials are also set to testify, possibly providing investors with a more lucid outlook. Presently, market expectations are factoring in marginally less than 25 basis points in additional rate hikes for the Fed’s November meeting. However, the emphasis on data-driven decision-making remains paramount, suggesting that the outcome could range from a prolonged hold on rates to more aggressive hikes. This uncertainty is likely to induce fluctuations in the gold markets and influence the XAU/USD pair’s trajectory.
欧元/美元：欧洲央行内部加息分歧, 欧元看涨 EUR/USD: Assessing Technical Patterns Amid Divergent Views Within ECB On Rate Hikes
欧元/美元货币对在接近1.0900水平时出现轻微的看跌倾向，试图继续预期的近期看多趋势，受随机指标和EMA50指标的积极支持。此外，倒置的头肩顶形态增加了看多动能，如果该对突破1.0940水平，暗示进一步的正面交易可能性，并将1.1075作为下一个目标。然而，跌破1.0860可能会有施加向下压力。在基本面上，欧洲央行（ECB）内部存在不同的意见。鹰派Isabel Schnabel和Peter Kazimir主张在达到最高利率之前进行额外的加息，Schnabel强调采取积极措施来控制通胀的重要性。相反，以鸽派立场著称的欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane建议在7月可能加息，但对进一步增加持非承诺态度，提倡以数据为驱动的方法。密切关注欧洲央行在利率调整上的不同观点是至关重要的，因为它们可能影响欧元/美元对的走势。
The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a mild bearish tendency as it neared the 1.0900 mark, but initiated the day with a bullish inclination, aiming to continue the anticipated bullish trend in the near term, bolstered by positive stochastic and EMA50 indicators. Moreover, the inverted head and shoulders pattern is adding to the bullish momentum, suggesting potential for further positive trading if the pair breaches the 1.0940 level, setting sights on 1.1075 as the next target. However, breaking below 1.0860 could end the bullish scenario and exert downward pressure. On the fundamental side, there are contrasting opinions within the European Central Bank (ECB). Hawks Isabel Schnabel and Peter Kazimir advocate for additional rate hikes before peak interest rates are reached, with Schnabel emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to contain inflation. In contrast, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, known for his dovish stance, proposes a likely rate hike in July but is non-committal regarding further increases, advocating for a data-driven approach. The varying perspectives within the ECB on interest rate adjustments are crucial to monitor as they may impact the EUR/USD pair’s movements.
美元/日元：在鹰派联储立场和稳定的日本银行政策背景下，应对通道阻力 USD/JPY: Navigating Channel Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed Tone And Steady BoJ Policy
美元/日元货币对目前正在重新测试上行通道趋势线的阻力位，其100日移动平均线上穿200日移动平均线，呈现多头信号。如果成功突破这一阻力位，可能为目标145.20铺路。从基本面来看，美联储的鹰派立场通过联储理事Christopher Waller和里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin的言论表明，由于核心通胀持续，可能需要进一步的货币紧缩。此外，国债收益率在美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后美元近期下跌之后保持相对稳定，两年期和十年期收益率分别小幅上升，为美元缓解了轻微的下行压力。与此同时，日本银行（BoJ）通过保持利率不变并继续其收益率曲线控制政策来维持现状。日本银行政策的任何变化都将是出人意料的，并可能产生重大影响，但就目前而言，他们预测未来几个月通货膨胀将放缓，这意味着加息可能不会立即发生。
The USD/JPY currency pair is currently retesting the resistance level of an upper channel trendline, supported by a bullish signal as its 100-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. A break above this resistance could pave the way for targeting 145.20. On the fundamental front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as indicated by remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, suggests that additional monetary tightening may be on the cards due to persistent core inflation. Additionally, Treasury yields remained relatively stable with marginal increases in the two-year and ten-year yields, offering slight relief to the US dollar after its recent decline following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the status quo by keeping rates unchanged and continuing its yield curve control policy. Any alteration to the BoJ’s policy would be unexpected and likely to have a significant impact, but for now, their prediction of subdued inflation in the coming months implies that changes are not imminent.
XAU/USD分析：黄金在支撑位遇阻，伴随着美联储会议 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Resistance At Support Levels Amidst Federal Reserve Meeting
对于6月15日的XAU/USD分析，黄金价格在接近美联储会议之前稳定在1960美元左右。黄金曾在1935美元附近的支撑区进行测试，并成功反弹．值得关注的是，美联储主席鲍威尔可能表达出鹰派的期望，他希望为未来的会议保留最大的灵活性。
在基本面上，美联储将维持利率不变，但可能会警示未来几个月的利率可能进一步上升，以解决中央银行在控制通胀方面的持续挑战。对此决策的一致表决表明政策制定者在应对通胀并实现2.0%的长期目标方面保持一致。尽管与去年相比，总体CPI（消费者物价指数）有所改善，目前年同比增长率为4.0%，但仍然是目标的两倍，凸显出通胀在核心数据中的持续性。
For XAU/USD on June 15th, gold prices hover around $1,960 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The precious metal has tested and rebounded at support zones around $1,935. Fed Chair Powell’s potential hawkish outlook cannot be disregarded as he seeks maximum flexibility for future meetings.
On the fundamental side, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but there may be a warning that rates could rise further in July due to the central bank’s ongoing struggle with inflation. The unanimous vote on this decision suggests policymakers are aligned in their strategy to address inflation and achieve the long-term goal of 2.0% inflation. While headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) has improved compared to last year, currently standing at 4.0% year-over-year, it still remains double the target, emphasizing the persistent nature of inflation as reflected in the core gauge.
EUR/USD分析：通胀数据和央行预期下的区间交易 EUR/USD Analysis: Range-Bound Trading Amidst Inflation Data And Central Bank Expectations
对于6月14日的EUR/USD分析，货币对一直在区间内交易。支撑位位于1.0680-1.0700区域，如果明天歐洲的强劲CPI（消费者物价指数）数据提振，可能会将EUR/USD推回1.0680的支撑区域。
在基本面上，5月份美国的通胀率略低于预期的4.1%，表明加息的可能性降低。市场预期美联储在即将召开的会议上可能会暂停加息，并更有可能在7月会议上加息。与此同时，欧洲央行（ECB）的政策制定者维持鹰派立场。
For EUR/USD analysis on June 14th, the currency pair has been trading within a range. Strong support has been identified around the 1.0680-1.0700 area, which could come into play if tomorrow’s strong CPI (Consumer Price Index) print strengthens the US dollar. This could potentially push EUR/USD back towards the support zone at the 1.0680 level.
On the fundamental side, the US inflation rate for May came in slightly lower than the forecasted 4.1%, signaling a reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike. Market pricing indicates expectations of a pause from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a higher probability of a rate hike in the July meeting. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers maintain their hawkish stance.
GBP/USD 分析：英国央行预期支撑英镑 GBP/USD Analysis: Bullish Momentum And BoE Expectations Support The Pound
6月12日的GBP/USD分析，我们观察到汇价回升，突破了1.2550附近的前阻力，并持续向上突破。周四的多头蜡烛线突破了20日和50日移动平均线，如果汇价能保持在这两个技术指标上方，那么GBP/USD可能具备足够的動力来测试最近的多个月高点，约在1.2680附近。
然而，英镑的多头受到50日移动平均线的阻力，短期方向性偏好尚不确定，这一点可以从相对强弱指数（RSI）的中点附近交易得到体现，表明既没有明显看涨也没有明显看跌的动能。关键阻力位分别为1.2680和1.2584。英镑正在交投于一个小型三角形区间。
从基本面来看，英镑在本周表现强劲，对一系列G7货币显示出可观的涨幅。英国央行（BoE）的预期显示，2023年将再次加息大约100个基点，这相对于其他主要央行来说是相当高的。
In this analysis of GBP/USD for June 12th, we observe the pair’s upward movement as it surpasses prior resistance levels around 1.2550 and continues to push higher. The recent bullish candle broke above both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, suggesting potential strength for GBP/USD to test the recent multi-month high around 1.2680. However, resistance is encountered at the 50-day moving average, and the short-term directional bias remains uncertain, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading around the midpoint.
From a fundamental perspective, the British Pound concludes the week on a positive note, exhibiting significant gains against various G7 currencies. The Bank of England’s expectations of approximately 100 basis points of additional interest rate hikes in 2023, compared to other major central banks, provide further support for the Pound.
EUR/USD 分析：经济指标和地缘政治紧张局势引起的看跌信号 EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Signals Amidst Economic Indicators And Geopolitical Tensions
在6月8日的EUR/USD分析中，我们观察到价格走势接近熊旗形态的顶点，预示着可能出现突破的方向。确认价格下破旗形支撑后，可能出现经典的图形看跌規則。相反，如果价格上破旗形阻力，支撑欧元的强势。从技术角度来看，阻力位设定在1.0800和1.0700，而支撑位位于1.0620，即200日移动平均线。
在基本面上，由于中国5月贸易收支出现显著失衡，欧元兑美元汇率出现下跌。此外，最近的通胀和采购经理人指数（PMI）等经济指标表明欧元区经济放缓。乌克兰危机的升级进一步加剧了市场对欧元的负面情绪，支持美元作为避险货币的吸引力。
In this analysis of EUR/USD for 8 June, we observe the daily price action approaching the apex of a bear pennant formation, indicating a potential breakout in either direction. A confirmed close below the pennant support could trigger a textbook pattern unfolding towards subsequent support zones. Conversely, a move above the pennant resistance could negate the downside momentum and support euro strength.From a technical perspective, resistance levels are identified at 1.0800 and 1.0700, while support lies at 1.0620, represented by the 200-day moving average.
On the fundamental side, the euro has weakened against the US dollar due to a significant miss on China’s balance of trade for May. Additionally, economic indicators, such as recent inflation and PMI data, have pointed to a slowdown in the eurozone economy. The escalating situation in Ukraine further adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the euro, supporting the safe haven appeal of the US dollar.
纳斯达克分析：持续上漲及潜在过热担忧 Nasdaq Analysis: Sustained Gains And Potential Overheating Concerns
在7月6日的纳斯达克（NAS100）分析中，我们看到指数持续上漲以及可能出现的过热担忧。自4月底以来，纳斯达克指数稳步增长，期间增加了大约1800个点。目前，该指数没有显示逆转或巩固的迹象。然而，我们需要注意市场达到這個水平可能出现的过热情况。从技术面来看，纳斯达克指数显示持续上涨，并且在这个扩展水平上有过热的风险。
从基本面来看，尽管其他指数在周一表现不佳，但纳斯达克指数创下了一年来的新高，受到人工智能類股票的推动。如果指数保持上行势头，下一个目标是达到2022年3月的高点，约15230点。此外，上周的非农就业数据再次显示出美国劳动力市场的韧性，五月份创造了339,000个就业岗位，超过了经济学家预期的190,000个岗位。此外，四月份的就业数据也从253,000个岗位上修正至294,000个岗位。
In this analysis of the Nasdaq (NAS100) for June 7th, we examine the continued steady gains in the index since late April, with an impressive addition of around 1800 points during this period. The index shows no signs of reversing or consolidating at the moment. However, caution is warranted as the market reaches extended levels and potential overheating concerns arise.
From a fundamental perspective, the Nasdaq displayed strength on Monday, reaching a fresh one-year high, driven by the euphoria surrounding AI stocks. The next target for the index is set at the previous highs of March 2022, around 15,230, if the upward momentum continues. Furthermore, the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data further confirmed the resilience of the US labor market, as May’s job additions surpassed economist expectations, with April’s figures also revised upward.
This analysis sheds light on the Nasdaq’s sustained gains and highlights the market’s ability to withstand challenges. Traders should closely monitor the index’s key levels, considering the potential risks of extended levels and the positive economic data’s impact on market sentiment.
黄金分析：技术区间交易和市场对FOMC会议预期 Gold Analysis: Technical Range-Bound Trading And Market Expectations For The FOMC Meeting
在对黄金（XAU/USD）的分析中，我们观察到该贵金属目前正在一个明确的技术区间内交易，区间范围在1930至1980之间。尽管黄金仍然低于关键的移动平均线和23.6%的斐波那契回撤水平，但在每盎司约1904美元的38.2%斐波那契水平附近可能会遇到支撑，进一步重要支撑位在1900美元水平。
在基本面上，五月份的ISM服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）调查结果未达到预期，增加了市场对即将到来的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议暂停的预期。交易者密切关注即将举行的FOMC会议，因为利率掉期和期货市场目前并不如预期加息。然而，这些市场目前暗示在7月份的会议上加息的概率约为70%，涨幅为25个基点。
In this analysis of gold (XAU/USD), we observe that the precious metal is currently trading within a defined technical range between 1930 and 1980. Despite remaining below key moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, there is potential support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $1,904 per ounce, with further significance at the $1,900 level.
On the fundamental front, the recent disappointment in the May ISM services PMI survey results has increased market expectations for a possible pause at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 14th. Traders are closely monitoring this event, as interest rate swaps and futures markets are not currently anticipating a rate hike. However, there is approximately a 70% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase at the July meeting.
欧元/美元：技术性下跌及美联储可能暂停加息的影响 The Influence Of Federal Reserve Policies And Technical Patterns On The EUR/USD Exchange Rate
近期欧元/美元汇率经历了一些重大的变化。目前的技术分析显示，欧元/美元已经跌破了1.07的关键水平。这一走势暗示了空头市场的控制地位，并可能促使更多的卖盘入场。然而，我们需要密切关注动态，并随时准备迎接可能的反弹。
对于基本面因素，美联储可能暂停在未来的利率上调计划，这可能会对欧元/美元产生影响。近期的数据显示，美国的个人消费支出和通胀情况都有所加速，这已经引发了市场对美联储可能改变货币政策立场的猜测。尽管美联储在本月初将利率提高到了5%至5.25%的区间，并暗示了对未来借贷成本前景的不确定性，但一些分析师认为，美联储在6月的利率决议上可能会保持现状。
Today, the EUR/USD pair has been exhibiting bearish behavior, with trading levels dipping below the 1.07 mark. This downward trend comes on the heels of heightened volatility, revealing a strong bearish control in the market. The currency pair’s performance has been notably impacted by the persistent rise in inflation and shifts in domestic consumption in the U.S.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has formed lower highs, adhering to a clear downtrend. The currency pair’s movement towards the 1.07 level indicates a strong psychological support line, its lowest in over two months. However, the pair could potentially bounce back, as technical indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show potential for a bullish correction in the near term.
On the fundamental front, economic indicators in the U.S. have suggested persistent inflationary pressure. However, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent hike in interest rates to between 5% and 5.25%, there is increasing speculation that the Fed might halt its policy of tightening in the near future. This speculation is based on reports suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are leaning towards leaving interest rates unchanged in the upcoming months.
The potential pause in interest rate hikes by the Fed could significantly impact the EUR/USD dynamics. If the Fed decides to hold off on further rate hikes, it could potentially lead to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar, providing some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY面临140关键阻力区之际，经济和货币政策的不确定性增加 USD/JPY Faces Key Resistance At 140 Amid Economic And Monetary Policy Uncertainty
截至今天，USD/JPY正在140附近的关键阻力区交易，这反映了一个可能反转的重要点。该货币对的强劲可以归因于美元指数最近从104.20回撤，这是由于批准提高美国债务上限而激发的。然而，这种债务上限的提高可能会影响美国经济的长期信誉，增加了信用评级机构降级的可能性。这种降级可能会对美元指数和美国股票产生压力，可能导致USD/JPY进行修正。
尽管如此，值得注意的是，标普500期货已经失去了亚洲早盘交易的大部分漲幅。鉴于美国市场今天因为纪念日关闭，投资者可能倾向于保守。这与美联储可能由于美国持续的通胀而进行更多的利率加息的可能性，可能会对USD/JPY产生下行压力。
从技术角度来看，USD/JPY目前正在140水平面临关键的测试。这个阻力区域标志着货币对可能的转折点。尽管近期动力强劲，但如果该对未能明确突破这个阻力，市场可能会见证一次回撤。在未来几天，关注关键的技术指标和价格行为将十分重要。
As of today, USD/JPY is trading near a key resistance area around 140, reflecting a significant point of potential reversal. The pair’s strength can be attributed to the Dollar Index’s recent pullback from 104.20, spurred by the approval of a raise in the US debt ceiling. However, this increase in the debt ceiling may potentially impact the long-term credibility of the U.S. economy, increasing the probability of a downgrade by credit rating agencies. Such a downgrade could put pressure on the Dollar Index and U.S. equities, potentially leading to a correction in USD/JPY.
Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the S&P 500 futures have relinquished most of their gains from early trading sessions in Asia. Given that U.S. markets are closed today in observance of Memorial Day, investors may be inclined towards risk aversion. This, along with the possibility of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve due to persistent U.S. inflation, could exert downward pressure on USD/JPY.
Technically speaking, USD/JPY is currently facing a crucial test at the 140 level. This area of resistance marks a possible turning point for the currency pair. Despite the recent momentum, the market could witness a pullback if the pair fails to break this barrier convincingly. It’s important to keep an eye on key technical indicators and price action in the coming days.
XAU/USD市场分析：在债务上限问题解决的背景下现底部形态 XAU/USD Market Review: A Bottoming Formation Amid A Resolved Debt Ceiling
在XAU/USD这对货币中，我们注意到金价在1940的位置附近正在形成底部。从技术角度来看，金价近期在水平支持线的附近展现出支持，这个支持线源自于3月15日的最高价$1,937.39。尽管如此，当前的20周期指数移动平均线（EMA）依然在$1,952.38的位置上，阻碍了金价上涨的努力。然而，相对强弱指数（RSI）似乎正在从熊市区间（20.00-40.00）向中性区间（40.00-60.00）上落，这表明熊市动能可能正在减弱。
从基本面来看，最近美国债务上限問題已经给美元指数（DXY）带来負面影響，为通常被视为避险资产的黄金创造了有利条件。美国债务上限的提升可能会导致信用评级机构降低对美国长期信誉的评级，这可能会进一步推高金价。但值得注意的是，由于美国的消费者支出持续增加，引发了通胀压力，这可能会促使美联储继续其紧缩政策。在这周，美国的就业数据将会吸引投资者的注意，因为这将为6月份的货币政策会议提供基础。
总的来说，技术和基本面因素均暗示金价可能在1940的位置附近形成底部。未来，美国的经济发展和货币政策决策的相互作用，将可能成为影响XAU/USD走势的关键因素。
In the XAU/USD pair, we’re observing a potential bottoming out around the 1940 level. On the technical front, gold has been demonstrating resilience near the horizontal support zone, which stems from the March 15 high of $1,937.39. Despite this, the 20-period EMA, currently at $1,952.38, continues to thwart the efforts of gold bulls to initiate a recovery. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be transitioning from a bearish range (20.00-40.00) to a neutral range (40.00-60.00), suggesting a possible slowdown in bearish momentum1.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent resolution of the US debt ceiling has exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY), creating a favorable environment for gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. The increase in the US debt ceiling, however, may lead to a downgrade in the country’s long-term credibility by credit rating agencies, potentially supporting gold prices further. It’s also important to note that the anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, driven by persistent US inflation, could add a layer of complexity to the gold price dynamics. Investors will likely pay close attention to the upcoming US employment data, which may shape expectations for the Fed’s policy direction in June1.
In conclusion, the technical and fundamental factors suggest a possible bottoming formation for gold around the 1940 area. The interplay between US economic developments and monetary policy decisions will likely be key factors influencing the XAU/USD pair in the coming period.
分析EUR/USD价格走势：下行趋势是否将继续? Examining EUR/USD Price Action: Will The Downtrend Continue?
今日分析EUR/USD，我们观察到价格刚刚突破了1.0730的重要支撑区域，预示着可能会继续向心理支撑位1.0700下行。在上行方面，预计阻力位将出现在1.0810附近。基本面方面显示，德国第一季度的GDP数据证实了技术性衰退，令欧元多头失去可能性。此外，欧洲央行（ECB）官员的讲话可能会提及最近的德国GDP报告，对近期的鹰派言论产生影响。即将发布的美国GDP数据和Fed的Collins的讲话可能提供进一步的见解，并影响未来的利率决策。
In today’s analysis of EUR/USD, we observed a breach below the key area of confluence at 1.0730, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend towards the psychological support level of 1.0700. On the upside, resistance is anticipated around 1.0810. The fundamental aspect reveals that Germany’s Q1 GDP confirmed a technical recession, dampening optimism among euro bulls in a risk-averse environment. Additionally, the speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials could shed light on the recent German GDP report and its potential impact on the hawkish narrative. The upcoming US GDP release and statements from the Fed’s Collins may provide further insights and influence future interest rate decisions.
By analysing the technical and fundamental factors, we gain valuable insights into the potential trajectory of EUR/USD. Understanding the price action dynamics and the influence of economic indicators and central bank communications helps traders and investors make informed decisions in the EUR/USD market.
USD/JPY上行潜力：上升趋势是否延续？ Analyzing The Potential For Upside In USD/JPY: Will The Uptrend Continue?
今天我们探讨 USD/JPY该货币进一步上涨的潜力。从技术角度来看，USD/JPY目前接近自2022年1月低点以来的日线图上升通道的上边界，该通道自3月24日以来一直無法突破。現在支撑位位于137.50水平，即5月1日的日内高点。只要通道底部约135水平的支撑未受到威胁，当前的上升趋势有望延续。然而，如果突破该水平，可能会引发对过去六个月的看涨结构需重新评估。
从基本面来看，USD/JPY的走势主要受到利率差异的影响。在全球通胀压力普遍上升的背景影響下，日本央行是少数坚持宽松货币政策的主要货币机构之一。该行持续试图刺激国内需求，并认为当前的通胀浪潮是暂时的，因此继续坚持这一政策路线。
通过综合分析技术和基本因素，我们可以洞察USD/JPY的潜在走势。了解上升通道的动态和日本央行的货币政策立场有助于交易者和投资者在USD/JPY市场上做出明智的决策。
In today’s analysis of USD/JPY, we examine the potential for further upside in the pair. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is currently near the upper boundary of a broad daily-chart uptrend channel, which has been in place since late march and is an extension of the upward movement since January 2022. The immediate support level is seen at 137.50, representing May 1’s intraday high. As long as the channel base around the 135 level remains intact, the current uptrend is likely to continue. However, a break below this level could prompt a reassessment of the bullish structure that has persisted for the past six months.
In terms of fundamentals, the movement in USD/JPY is largely influenced by interest rate differentials. The Bank of Japan stands out among major central banks as it continues to pursue a loose monetary policy despite the prevailing global inflationary pressures. With a focus on stimulating domestic demand and the belief that the current wave of inflation is transitory, the Bank of Japan maintains its course.
By analysing both technical and fundamental factors, we gain insight into the potential direction of USD/JPY. Understanding the dynamics of the uptrend channel and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance can help traders and investors make informed decisions in the USD/JPY market.
黄金分析：下跌修正结束了吗？ Is Gold's Downward Correction Coming To An End?
从技术面来看，我们注意到最近的反弹可能在接近2,005-2,020区间遇到强大阻力位，该区间包括200周期移动平均线和240分钟图表上的三月中旬高点。然而，XAU/USD目前仍在关键支撑区域1,925-1,950之上，这对于保持多头结构至关重要。突破该水平可能令市場重新评估六个月以來的多头结构。
在基本面上，美联储决策者在过去一周中出面否认了市场对2023年降息的预期，对当前市场情绪提出质疑。此外，美国债务上限的紧张局势不断升级，乔·拜登总统和众议员凯文·麦卡锡的谈判进入了关键阶段。美国财政部考虑推迟支付的举措引发了一个问题：是否意味着民主党人认为谈判可能无法在6月1日截止日期之前完成？这也对美元施加了下行压力，为黄金提供了支撑。
In today’s analysis of gold (XAU/USD) for May 24th, we examine whether the downward correction in gold has come to an end. From a technical perspective, we observe that the recent rebound in price might lose momentum as it approaches the formidable barrier around the 2005-2020 range, including the 200-period moving average and the mid-March high. However, XAU/USD is currently holding above the key support area of 1925-1950, which is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. A break below this level could prompt a reassessment of the six-month-long uptrend.
On the fundamental side, Federal Reserve policymakers have voiced their opposition to market expectations of rate cuts in 2023, challenging the prevailing sentiment. Additionally, tensions surrounding the US debt ceiling have intensified, as negotiations between President Joe Biden and House Representative Kevin McCarthy reach a critical point. The US Treasury Department’s consideration of delayed payments raises the question of whether Democrats perceive a risk of incomplete negotiations before the June 1 deadline. These factors exert downward pressure on the US dollar and provide support for gold.
美元/日元分析：上升三角形突破和国债收益率的影响 "USD/JPY Analysis: Ascending Triangle Breakout And Influence Of Treasury Yields"
技术面上，美元/日元突破了一个上升三角形图形的阻力位，并超过了138的价格水平，表明上涨趋势将继续。然而，投資者应密切关注相对强弱指标（RSI），因为背离显示出上涨势头的减弱。
在基本面上，美元/日元的下跌与美国国债收益率上升相吻合。10年期收益率连续七天上涨，创下自2022年4月以来的最长连涨纪录。正如本周展望所提到的，日元将对外部经济和金融市场的发展保持敏感。
由于日本银行采取极度宽松的货币政策，其他地区的收益率将主要决定日元的走势。在这种情况下，过去24小时内，美国持续的经济乐观情绪继续支撑债券收益率。与此同时，金融市场似乎仍然对美国政治家能够在潜在的违约之前就债务上限达成协议抱有希望。
本周对日元的一个重要风险可能来自于周五发布的美国核心个人消费支出通胀指数数据。
USD/JPY has broken above the ceiling of an Ascending Triangle chart pattern and surpassed the price level of 138, indicating a continuation of the upside trend. However, traders should monitor the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closely, as negative divergence suggests a weakening of upside momentum.
On the fundamental side, the decline of USD/JPY correlated with a rise in Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate has been on a seven-day winning streak. The Japanese Yen remains sensitive to external economic and financial market developments, and its fate will largely be determined by yields elsewhere. Currently, ongoing economic optimism in the US has supported bond yields. Additionally, the financial markets are hopeful that US politicians can reach a debt ceiling deal to avoid a potential default.
A key risk for the Japanese Yen this week will likely come from the US Core PCE Deflator print on Friday, which could impact USD/JPY.
相关主题："原油分析：突破阻力，受库存惊喜与加拿大山火影响" Topic: Crude Oil Analysis: Overcoming Resistance Amid Inventory Surprises And Canadian Wildfires
原油在技术层面上继续下行，但最近成功突破了73.93的阻力位。然而，这一水平以及在73.58的高点可能继续提供阻力。下方若心理支撑位70未能保持，可能的支撑將落在69.41、66.82和66.12的突破位和前期低点。
在基本面方面，市场参与者密切关注本周三发布的美国能源信息署（EIA）每周数据。本周数据特别引人关注，上周石油库存意外激增，增加了504万桶，远远超过了预期的减少92万桶。此外，加拿大阿尔伯塔、不列颠哥伦比亚和萨斯喀彻温省正在经历严重的山火，预计该国的石油产量将因此减少近25万桶/日。这被视为原油的看涨信号。
Crude oil has been making progress on the downside, but it recently managed to overcome resistance at 73.93. However, this level and the high reached at 73.58 might continue to pose as resistance levels. On the downside, the psychological support at 70 was not sustained, and potential support levels can be found at the breakpoints and prior lows of 69.41, 66.82, and 66.12.
In terms of fundamentals, market participants are closely awaiting the release of the weekly US Energy Information Agency (EIA) data on Wednesday. This data is of particular interest following last week’s unexpected surge in oil inventory, with a substantial addition of 5.04 million barrels compared to the anticipated drawdown of 920k barrels. Additionally, severe wildfires in the Canadian provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan are expected to impact the nation’s oil production output, potentially reducing it by nearly 250k barrels per day. This development is seen as a bullish sign for crude oil.
黄金分析：美元走强、美债担忧和美联储鹰派立场不利贵金属行情 Gold Analysis: Dollar Strength, US Debt Concerns, And Fed's Hawkish Tone Weigh On Precious Metal
黄金在技术层面上继续下行，收盘价跌破了50日简单移动平均线（SMA），未能維持在心理支持位2000美元上方。预计另一个支撑位将位于约1970美元附近。基本面方面，美元近期走强可以归因于对美元的避险需求上升，因为围绕美国债务上限的紧张局势放緩。此外，美联储发言人的表态也令市场保持警惕，例如亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长波斯蒂克表示，即使失业率上升，美联储也需要在打击通胀方面保持极强的力度。这意味着可能会出现另一次利率加息，这对黄金价格的上涨是不利的。
Gold has been experiencing downside movement, as it closed below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and failed to hold at the psychological support level of 2000. Another support level is expected to be around 1970. On the fundamental side, the recent strength of the US dollar can be attributed to increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions around the US debt ceiling. Furthermore, statements from US Federal Reserve speakers, such as Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic, indicating the need to remain vigilant in combating inflation, even if it leads to increased unemployment, imply the possibility of another interest rate hike, which could negatively impact the price of gold.
EUR/USD分析：美元走强与需求担忧对欧元区造成压力，增长前景面临挑战 EUR/USD Analysis: Dollar Strength And Demand Fears Weigh On Eurozone, Challenging Growth Prospects
EUR/USD在技术层面上出现下滑走勢。上周，由于美元走强和市场情绪恶化，EUR/USD遭遇了抛售压力。然而，经过两天的抛售後, 歐美开始从前一天的下跌中恢复过来，目前在1.0840的支撑位附近交易。在基本面方面，欧元区三月份的工业产出出现下滑，环比下降了4.1%，加剧了对全球需求的担忧。此外，欧洲央行政策制定者卡齐米尔发表了鹰派言论，欧盟委员会对2023年通胀预期进行了修订，将通胀预期从二月份的5.5%上调至5.8%，同时将GDP增长预期从0.9%上调至1.1%。这些因素引发了对2023年下半年增长可持续性和需求前景的担忧。
EUR/USD experienced a slide in its value, with the support level at 1.0840 holding for the time being. Last week, the pair faced a late-week selloff due to the return of US Dollar strength and a decline in market sentiment. However, it has started to recover from the drop observed in the previous day’s trading. On the fundamental side, Eurozone industrial production faltered in March, declining by 4.1% compared to the previous month. This has added to concerns about global demand. In addition, ECB policymaker Kazimir’s hawkish tone and the EU Commission’s revised forecast indicating higher inflation and GDP growth in 2023 have raised questions about the feasibility of sustained growth in the second half of that year.
GBP/USD分析：失业率上升与经济放缓带来的信号為英鎊帶來不确定前景 GBP/USD Analysis: Mixed Signals And Uncertain Outlook Amid Rising Unemployment And Economic Slowdown
GBP/USD在与美元交易中維持在1.24至1.26的区间。尽管存在一些波动，但整体上市场的风险偏好积极，并且该货币对已经从前一天的下跌中恢复过来。基本面上，英国的失业率上升，截至一月至三月季度，英国的失业率上升至3.9%，高于前一个月的3.8%。此外，企业在四月份减少了13.6万人的工作岗位，总数达到2,980万人。这表明经济增长势头减弱，可能受到高利率压制需求。因此，结果呈现出混合信号，GBP/USD没有明确的方向。技术分析仍然显示上升趋势，而基本面因素则支持疲软走势。投資者在制定交易决策时应密切关注市场发展并综合考虑技术和基本因素。
GBP/USD has been trading within a range of 1.24 to 1.26 against the US dollar. Despite some fluctuations, the overall risk appetite in the market remains positive, and the pair has been recovering from a drop observed in the previous day’s trading. On the fundamental front, the UK unemployment rate has risen, reaching 3.9% in the January-March quarter, reflecting a higher jobless rate compared to the previous month. Additionally, companies have reduced their payrolls by 136,000 in April, totaling 29.8 million. This suggests a loss of economic momentum, potentially influenced by higher interest rates dampening demand. Consequently, the analysis presents a mixed message with no clear direction. While the technical analysis indicates an upward trend, the fundamental factors support a weakened outlook. Traders should closely monitor market developments and consider both technical and fundamental factors when making trading decisions.
May 3rd Daily Analysis
On May 3rd, the dollar experienced a decline following a report revealing a decrease in new jobs in the United States. Market participants eagerly awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which was set to be announced later in the day.
According to data released the day before, new jobs in the US dropped for the third consecutive month in March, with the rate of layoffs being the highest it has been in over two years. This slowdown in the labor market could assist the Federal Reserve in its efforts to curb inflation.
As a result, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other currencies, dropped by 0.029% to 101.820, after experiencing a decrease of 0.245% the day prior.
Pivot Point: 101.80
May 2nd Daily Analysis
On Tuesday, May 2, gold prices remained stable as market participants treaded cautiously, waiting for monetary policy signals from major central banks, especially the US Fed.
Spot gold remained largely unchanged, holding steady at $1,983.29 per ounce, while US gold futures slipped 0.1% to $1,991.
Pivot Point: 1988
May 1st Daily Analysis
The dollar index rebounded 0.45% to 101.710, recovering from its lowest level in almost two weeks. However, the greenback remained on track for a monthly loss of just under 1% after a 2.3% drop in March. Traders had concerns about the soundness of the US banking system and the prospects for the Fed to end its monetary tightening policy, as the country’s economic growth faltered.
Pivot Point: 101.50
April 28th Daily Analysis
Following the release of US growth and unemployment benefit data and unemployment claims, the US dollar experienced a significant surge in trading on Thursday. Despite the fact that the US economy first quarter of this year recorded a lower-than-expected growth rate of only 1.1%, the dollar witnessed a remarkable rise as a result of this news.
Today, the US dollar index showed a 0.26% increase, settling close to the 101.50 points level.
Pivot Point: 101.25
April 27th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index decreased by 0.41% to 101.172 against a basket of foreign currencies, following a 0.5% rise in trading last Tuesday.
The major US market indices closed sharply lower yesterday, driven by the decline of First Bank’s stock, which fell by approximately 40%, renewing fears of a US bank crisis.
Pivot Point: 101.15
April 26th Daily Analysis
On Tuesday, the price of gold declined due to a surge in the value of the dollar, which compensated for the decline in Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US economic data later this week to predict the Fed’s next move regarding interest rates.
In spot transactions, the price of gold decreased by 0.1% and reached $1986.04 per ounce, while US gold futures contracts dropped by 0.2% and were priced at $1996.80.
Pivot Point: 1992
April 25th Daily Analysis
In early European trading on Monday, the US dollar saw a slight rise but remains on track for a second consecutive monthly loss. More economic data set to be released are expected to provide insight into the future direction of interest rates.
Currently, the dollar index is trading slightly lower at 101.345, with a monthly loss of approximately 1%, following a decline of over 2% in March.
The dollar’s recent decline can be attributed to concerns about a sharp slowdown in the US economy after it reached a 20-year high towards the end of last year.
Pivot Point: 101.24
April 24th Daily Analysis
On Friday, April 21st, gold prices recorded their second consecutive week of losses.
Upon settlement, gold futures fell by 1.4%, or $28.6 an ounce, to $1990.5 an ounce, to reach the lowest level in 3 weeks.
The decline in gold prices coincided with expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates by approximately 25 basis points, rising to 80%.
Pivot Point: 1986
April 19th Daily Analysis
In early European trade on Tuesday, the US dollar fell, reversing some of its overnight gains, as investors’ risk appetite improved following healthy growth data from China.
Despite the initial decline, the dollar index rebounded on Wednesday, rising by 0.1% in trading and settling near its pivot point.
Pivot Point: 101.50
April 18th Daily Analysis
On Monday, the Fed of New York announced that its measure of manufacturing activity in the state had increased for the first time in five months, further fuelling expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming May meeting.
Following this announcement, the probability of a 25-basis point increase in interest rates at May meeting rose to over 88%, and the US dollar experienced a slight rise before dropping again by 0.1% the following morning.
Pivot Point: 101.65
April 17th Daily Analysis
The value of the dollar inched up against major currencies while Treasury bond yields showed a slight fluctuation, with the 2-year government debt’s yield, which is sensitive to interest rates, remaining at approximately 4.1% on Monday.
Last week, these yields increased due to lower-than-anticipated core retail sales figures for March and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
As worries about the banking industry ease and inflationary pressure persists in the United States, traders are now speculating on a minimum of one interest rate hike this year.
Pivot Point: 101.05
April 14th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index registered a 0.14% decline, reaching a two-month low of 101.138, against a basket of foreign currencies, in today’s trading session. This drop occurred earlier during the Asian session.
Data released prior to the start of the session revealed a slowdown in producer prices that exceeded expectations, along with new claims for unemployment claims that came in higher than consensus. Both indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve’s tight policy approach is achieving its objectives in reining inflation.
As a result, the likelihood of interest rate stabilization at the upcoming May meeting has increased to over 30%.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 12th Daily Analysis
The dollar index fell 0.1%, and analysts estimate a significant decline in the inflation rate to 5.2% in March from 6% in February. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise to 5.6% from 5.5%.
Pivot Point: 101.90
April 11th Daily Analysis
The dollar index fell 0.1%, and investors are awaiting US consumer price data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow, Wednesday, in search of more clarity on the direction of interest rates during the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting in May.
A strong employment report in the United States released on Friday led to bets emerging that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, with the market expecting a 71.3% increase of 25 basis points, according to CME’s Videowatch service.
Pivot Point: 102.10
April 10th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, and the index closed 0.2% higher in the previous session.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 236 thousand – slightly above the median forecast – after a rise of 326 thousand in February. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. While the average hourly wage increased by 4.2% compared to last year, which is lower than estimates, and the slowest since June 2021.
Pivot Point: 101.75
April 07th Daily Analysis
The US dollar rose in early European settlement as risk sentiment favoring the safe haven weakened. However, it remained near two-month lows as a cold economy signals a pause in the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle.
The dollar index is now recording 101.640, up 0.1% against a basket of foreign currencies, and trading today above the two-month low of 101.140 seen during the previous session.
Please note that there is an early closure on the dollar index today at 7:15 pm Dubai time.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 06th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose slightly today, but it is not far from its recent low in two months, as traders assess the impact of the non-farm payroll data announced during the weekend on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve
Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report follows disappointing service sector data from the Institute for Supply Management and private sector employment data on Wednesday, as well as a drop-in US manufacturing activity in March at the weekend.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.95 after falling to a two-month low of 101.40 in the previous session.
Pivot Point: 101.40
April 05th Daily Analysis
The US dollar declined significantly during Tuesday’s trading and fell to its lowest level since early February. This decline took place after the release of some negative US economic data that raised concerns about the fact that the Fed’s continuing to raise interest rates.
This data reinforced expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, especially after the labor market was affected by the previous interest rate hike.
Economic data in the US revealed that factory orders fell by about 0.7% in February, compared to a 2.1% decline in January.
Pivot Point: 101.45
April 04th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index fell to 101.860 by 0.30% after the index rose strongly on Monday following the OPEC decision. This acts as a warning that the Fed will have to raise interest rates for a longer period.
Furthermore, data from the Institute of Industrial Supplies was issued, which indicated the most violent decline in 21 months since 2020. This is an indication of the contraction of the US economy, affected by the recent tightening policy of the Federal Reserve.
Pivot Point: 102.00
April 03rd Daily Analysis
The dollar index futures rose to the level of 102.720 after shifts in interest rate expectations. The market now believes that the interest rate will rise by 25 basis points in the next meeting in May, between the level of 5.00%-5.25%, although the markets did expect before that the interest rate would rise at the next meeting.
Pivot Point: 102.08
March 30th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose slightly against most of the major currencies on Wednesday to stabilize after falling over the past few sessions and rose sharply against the yen, which has been volatile as the Japanese fiscal year draws to a close.
The dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 102.64.
It had fallen in the past two sessions and is expected to record a monthly loss of 2.1%, falling victim to market turmoil caused by problems in the banking sector.
Pivot Point: 102.25
March 29th Daily Analysis
Fed member Philip Jefferson said that once the demand rate declines, inflation would return to the Fed’s target of 2%, and we are still testing inflation and testing the effects of the fiscal tightening imposed by the Federal Reserve by reducing budget and raising interest rates.
Jefferson refused to comment on the pressures of the banking crisis or to talk about the interest rate hike in the next May meeting. Moreover, he stressed that the current inflation rate is very high and has maintained a high level for more than expected time and that his goal is to reduce inflation as quickly as possible. He said that this reduction would take time due to the fact that reducing some inflationary factors needs time.
The dollar index decreased by 0.40% to reach the level of 102.105
Pivot Point: 102.15
March 28th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index futures declined with the opening of the American session yesterday to drop to 102.618 levels. The decline comes in light of the Dow Jones index rising by more than 250 points, with the rise in banking sector stocks after the news of First Citizens Bank’s purchase of deposits of the Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed two weeks ago. The acquisition came for $500 million, noting that the market value of Silicon Valley had exceeded $400 billion by the end of 2022. That is, the transaction was carried out at 90% less than the value of Silicon Valley.
The US dollar comes started to get weaker after the Fed’s comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve in Minneapolis, who highlighted some uncertainty about the path of rate hikes and added that the US economy is now closer to recession than before.
Pivot Point: 102.60
March 27th Daily Analysis
The USD is trying to stabilize above its pivot point of 102.65 in a relatively quiet week in economic data, and the highlight of Friday will be the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. That accelerated in January, adding to concerns about the prospects for further tightening by the Fed.
Also, consumer confidence data for March is scheduled for release on Tuesday and is likely to show the impact of pressures on the financial system. Other reports include data on pending home sales, revised GDP and initial unemployment claims.
Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, including Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed Chair Susan Collins, Richmond Bank President Tom Parkin, and Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook.
Pivot Point: 102.65
March 24th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell to its lowest level in seven weeks after the Fed raised interest rates as expected, although some phrases in the central bank’s announcement suggested that interest rates may be close to peaking.
The index records 101.805, down by 0.16% in yesterday’s session, to return to trading above 102.00 levels today.
Pivot point: 102.05
March 23th Daily Analysis
The US dollar continued its weak performance, extending its series of declines for the sixth day, after the decision to raise the federal interest rate by only 25 basis points. Moreover, the two-year Treasury yields fell by about seven basis points, after declining by 23 basis points on Wednesday.
Pivot point: 102.25
March 22th Daily Analysis
Markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve meeting today, in which members of the Federal Open Market Committee will reconsider their economic outlook and implement another increase in federal funds, amid divergent expectations between stabilization and a rate hike of about 25 basis points.
Pivot point: 102.85
March 21th Daily Analysis
Within its downward horizontal trend, the US dollar settles near its pivot point at 103.15, and investors await many important economic data, on top of which are the Federal Reserve interest rates and the economic expectations of the Federal Open Market Committee, tomorrow, Wednesday, March 22nd.
Pivot point: 103.15
March 20th Daily Analysis
The US dollar, which is considered a safe haven, is settling around 103.50 levels so far, coinciding with severe fluctuations in the financial markets.
Investors are waiting for many important economic data, led by the Federal Reserve interest rates and the economic outlook of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 22.
Pivot Point: 103.65
March 17th Daily Analysis
Gold prices fell from their highest level in 6 weeks at the settlement of Thursday’s trading session, the sixteenth of March, with the easing of concerns related to the banking sector.
Upon settlement, gold futures fell by 0.4%, or $8.3, to $1923 an ounce, but it soon rebounded after this correction, reaching again above $1930 an ounce, and this is within the general bullish trend that the yellow metal gained this week.
Gold prices rose over the past week, with the yellow metal benefiting from concerns about the stability of the European and US banking system.
Pivot Point: 1,920
March 16th Daily Analysis
The so-called Fear Index rose on Wall Street after remaining relatively weak in most of the sessions this year. As investors searched for a safe haven, gold prices became higher after previously declining. Moreover, the US dollar advanced against all its developed market counterparts except for the Japanese yen. However, not all safe-haven assets rose, as the Swiss Franc declined by more than 2% against the dollar.
Pivot Point: 104.00
March 15th Daily Analysis
The dollar found support in Asian markets on Wednesday, March 15th, as investors cut their expectations about cutting interest rates in the United States after easing fears of a banking crisis and the release of data showing that inflation remains high.
In early trading, the wave of selling the dollar, which lasted for two sessions, subsided, and the US currency rose about 0.2% against both the euro and the yen, recording 132.52 yen and 1.0729 dollars against the euro.
Pivot Point: 103.30
March 14th Daily Analysis
Investors are awaiting the inflation data and the consumer price index in the United States of America, which is expected to decline from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, and from 6.4% to 6.0% on an annual basis.
This data comes after a significant decline in the US dollar after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank
Pivot Point: 103.40
March 13th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell on Monday, March 13th, as the US authorities intervened to curb the repercussions of the sudden collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), as investors hoped that the US Fed would follow a less stringent monetary path.
Officials also said that depositors at Signature Bank, which was shut down by New York state financial regulators on Sunday, would be compensated and that taxpayers would not suffer any losses.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six currencies, fell 0.153% to 104.080. The Japanese yen rose 0.34% to 134.52 against the dollar, its highest level in a month, as investors moved towards safe-haven Asian currencies.
Pivot Point: 104.25
March 10th Daily Analysis
Gold prices fell on Friday, March 10, as investors await the non-farm payroll data in the United States, which is expected to be released today, to assess the likely path of raising interest rates in the US Fed.
Gold in spot transactions fell 0.1% to $1828.90 an ounce, and US gold futures fell 0.1% to $1832.90 an ounce.
Pivot Point: 1,825
March 09th Daily Analysis
On Thursday, March 9, the dollar fell after hitting a 3-month high earlier in the day, as investors adjusted their positions on the possibility of a higher interest rate hike for a longer period after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surprised the markets with a more hawkish approach to monetary policy.
Powell said that the US Fed would likely need to increase interest rates by a larger amount than expected after the release of strong data recently. Moreover, he stated that the bank is ready to move with greater steps if the “total” of the incoming data indicate the need for more stringent measures to control inflation, which prompted dealers and investors to reconsider their expectations about interest rates.
The dollar index declined in the latest trading by 0.09%, recording 105.54 after reaching 105.88 earlier in the day, the highest level since the first of December.
Pivot Point: 105.60
March 08th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose to multi-month highs against most other major currencies on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that interest rates may need to be raised faster and higher than expected to rein in stubborn inflation.
The dollar index rose 0.2% in Asian trading, to its highest level in more than 3 months at 105.86.
Pivot Point: 105.10
March 07th Daily Analysis
The dollar fell broadly on Monday, March 6, as investors await US Federal President Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. The February jobs report will be also be released at the end of the week and is likely to influence the Fed’s interest rate decision.
The dollar index fell 0.182% to 104.420. Last week, the index incurred its first weekly loss since January.
Pivot Point: 104.30
March 06th Daily Analysis
Data on Friday showed that the US services sector grew steadily in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs, indicating the economy continued to expand in the first quarter.
On Saturday, Fed Chair Mary Daly said that if the number in data related to inflation and the labor market continues to rise more than expected, it is necessary to raise interest rates and hold them at that level for longer than what Fed policymakers expected in December.
Pivot Point: 104.60
March 03rd Daily Analysis
The dollar index continues in a state of turmoil as it faces higher demand with the increasing expectations of raising interest rates to higher than expected levels, on the one hand, and data and numbers of economic indicators in the United States of America on the other.
Technically, the dollar is trying to consolidate at its important levels at 107.75 after gapping down with the opening of today’s session. The readings of the technical indicators are still fluctuating and not within a clear direction.
Pivot Point: 104.80
March 02nd Daily Analysis
The dollar incurred losses on Thursday, March 2, as optimism about the reopening of China received support from encouraging data and strengthened the Asian currencies. After 10 o’clock Dubai time, positive technical readings returned on to the dollar index, starting from trend indicators with the upward intersection of moving averages and reading the EMA indicator. Moreover, there is positive momentum today.
Pivot point: 104.45
March 01st Daily Analysis
The dollar index declined by 0.1% as markets continued to be affected by economic data. Investors await consumer confidence data for more clarity, with increasing expectations of raising interest rates to 6%.
Pivot Point: 104.70
February 28th Daily Analysis
The dollar index declined by 0.4% after reaching a seven-week peak after Durable Goods Orders (M/M) came out less than expected at (-4.5%).
Technically, the US dollar index is trying to test the resistance levels at 104.78, supported by momentum indicators.
Pivot Point: 104.78
February 27th Daily Analysis
The dollar index continued to rise with more of positive data on the US economy and the increase in the Fed’s need to raise interest rates.
Technically, momentum indicators support the more bullish movement, as is it the case with the trend indicators of moving averages and EMA for the general trend. Meanwhile, the dollar index tries to hold above its pivotal point at 104.95.
Pivot Point: 104.95
February 24th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index rose after data released yesterday, Thursday, that the number of Americans who filed for new applications for unemployment claims fell unexpectedly last week, and the United States announced that its gross domestic product grew by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to previous expectations of growth It amounts to 2.9%.
Pivot Point: 104.50
February 23th Daily Analysis
The dollar index rose above 104 levels yesterday, after a resounding decline in the US markets, after increasing fears that the US interest rate peak would reach 5.50% or higher.
It was clear from the minutes of the FOMC meeting that it was agreed on the need to continue tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation.
Pivot point: 104.30
February 20th Daily Analysis
Markets and traders are awaiting important data that will provide more clarity regarding the Fed’s next move. Other readings from US consumer data are expected to be influential in the Fed’s decisions to tackle inflation and interest rates later this week.
This comes amid a debate among central bankers about the need to adjust the pace of interest rate increases in light of rising fears of a global recession.
Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting are due next Wednesday, at which the US central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, and the readings may help illuminate the appetite for a bigger hike when policymakers meet again in March.
Pivot Point: 104.05
February 17th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose as US Treasury yields rose on Friday, February 17, heading for a third week of gains as a wave of strong economic data in the United States increased market expectations that a new interest rate hike is on the horizon.
Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected drop in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week. Meanwhile, other data showed that, in January, monthly producer prices reached their highest level in seven months.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index advanced 0.09% to 104.20 after reaching the highest level in more than a month at 104.24 in the previous session.
Pivot Point: 103.85
February 14th Daily Analysis
The dollar index may have started today’s session with some negative readings (H1), starting from the negative intersection of the moving averages, with the EMA signal matching as well.
However, this price movement is fully subject to change based on what will happen today in the markets after the release of CPI data.
Momentum indicators may also be volatile today, and there is no strong bullish momentum yet.
Pivot Point: 103.35
February 13th Daily Analysis
The markets are anticipating many important economic data this week, the most important of which is the consumer price index in the United States of America, which will give us a more comprehensive view of the Fed’s orientation during the coming period, which in turn will directly affect the movements of the US dollar.
The dollar index is trying to consolidate above its pivot point at 103.25 since the beginning of today’s session, and the positive technical readings started from the positive moving averages intersection and the positive directional EMA indicator.
Momentum indicators may be volatile and there is no strong bullish momentum yet.
Pivot Point: 103.25
February 10th Daily Analysis
The Dollar Index fell on Thursday after the weekly Unemployment Claims rose more than expected at 196K.
It moves in line with the decline in Treasury yields, as investors insisted that the Fed does not need to raise interest rates more because inflation is starting to become under control.
In evening trading, the dollar index fell 0.2 percent to 103.24.
But then the index came back to settle at the same important levels around its pivot point at 103.00
Pivot Point: 103.00
February 09th Daily Analysis
Gold prices rose at the settlement of the trading on Wednesday, February 8th, for the third consecutive session, with the dollar’s decline.
Upon settlement, gold futures rose by 0.3%, or $5.90, to $1,890.70 an ounce.
Prices for the yellow metal will likely remain volatile as investors continue to digest Fed Chairman Powell’s message.
Pivot Point: 1,876
February 08th Daily Analysis
After Powell’s speech, Chairman of the Fed Committee, yesterday, the dollar index was exposed to high volatility, which began to decline to 102.85 levels, then returned to settle below the pivot point at 103.30.
The index may have lost some bullish momentum, but the general trend has not been changed yet.
Pivot Point: 103.30
February 07th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index continues its bullish momentum as markets await Fed Chairman Powell’s speech today at 9:00 pm Dubai time.
The technical readings are positive. There is a continuation of the positive intersection on the moving averages (20,55) with bullish support on momentum indicators, for the dollar index to settle at its pivot point at 103.30.
Pivot Point: 103.30
February 06th Daily Analysis
The dollar continued to rise on Monday after the strong US jobs report indicated that the Fed (the US central bank) may continue its monetary hawkish policy for a longer period. Meanwhile, the yen was hit by news that Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya would be next the governor.
The dollar touched its highest level in four weeks against a basket of currencies, recording 103.22.
The technical readings are positive. The positive intersection on the moving averages continues, with bullish support on momentum indicators, for the dollar index to settle above its pivot point at 102.35.
Pivot point: 102.35
February 02nd Daily Analysis
The euro clings to gains as buyers retain the reins for the third day in a row awaiting the European Central’s meeting to set interest rates today. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but the focus is on the comments of Christine Lagarde, the bank’s president, at the press conference to get signals about raising interest rates in the future. Meanwhile, data of inflation rates in the European Union yesterday showed a decline from 9.2% to 8.5%, which reduced expectations of tightening policy by the European Central Bank.
With the weakening of the dollar, the European currency rise to 1.1030 levels, which is the highest price level in nine months. The euro-dollar pair is likely to remain more stable with expectations of increasing interest rates today, but that depends on the extent to which Christian Lagarde advocates for more interest rate hikes.
Pivot Point: 1.0930
February 01st Daily Analysis
The dollar index bounced back after its gains in the first trading week, thanks to US data that eased pressure regarding wages. The index fell by approximately 0.16% after the US employment cost fell to 1.0%, compared to expectations of 1.1%, down from the previous reading of 1.2. %, which limits the purchasing power of citizens. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to be held today, and expectations indicate that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
The dollar index retreated from the resistance levels at 102.60 down to 101.97 levels, as the relative strength index lost its buying momentum, with the MACD indicator retreating to neutral levels. The dollar stabilized at the beginning of today’s trading, awaiting the Fed’s meeting today.
Pivot Point: 102.07
January 31st Daily Analysis
The dollar index recovered from negative trading for three consecutive weeks and rose by 0.7%, as it reduced its losses with the expectations of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting. The Fed is expected to raise 25 basis points on interest rates, and investors will look for any new indicators regarding the number of possible increases during this year.
The dollar index succeeded in surpassing the pivot point at 101.40 levels. The MACD and RSI indicators show positivity, with the crossing of the moving average 100 and 200 on the hourly time frame, which could push the dollar index to higher levels.
PIVOT POINT: 102.07
January 30th Daily Analysis
The dollar stabilized in trading today and moved away from its lowest level in eight months before the Federal Reserve meeting this week, with dealers focusing on guiding the path of interest rates, but the dollar index is still on its way to record a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 1.5% affected by expectations of slowing the pace of rate hikes. interest from the Fed.
Last Friday, the monthly personal consumption expenditures price index data showed some increase, reaching 0.3% after it was 0.2%, and the personal income index reached 0.2%, getting down from 0.3%, which could lead the Fed to go on with the hawkish policy. No action was taken to stop interest rate hikes, and the market was priced based on the fact that the Fed will raise 25 basis points at its next meeting on Wednesday.
Pivot Point: 101.40
January 27th Daily Analysis
Despite the decline in GDP growth from 3.2% to 2.9% in Q4 2022, markets looked on the positive side as the numbers were higher than the expected 2.1%. The dollar index rose 0.12% during the morning session as investors expect more monetary policy tightening than previously expected.
On the hourly chart, the dollar index was relieved from the selling pressure, but it is still in the horizontal range between 101.40 and 101.70. However, the daily chart shows a continuation of the downtrend as moving averages confirm resistance at 101.90 and 101.70. Meanwhile, RSI and MACD show neutral readings.
Pivot Point: 101.70
January 26th Daily Analysis
Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The ECB is seen most likely to remain hawkish. The euro slipped 0.03% to $1.0911, though remained close to its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit on Monday.
Technically, the fiber pair remains on the accelerating side on both hourly and daily charts. Meanwhile, the pair has built its support above 1.0870 and 1.0900 which depleted the selling pressure. Technical indicators remain on the rise and signal a high probability of further gains.
Pivot Point: 1.0920M
January 25th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar weakened 0.1% this morning ahead of the PCE data due on Thursday. Markets expect the PCE to decline thus inflation to further slowdown. PCE report is known to be the measure for Feds policy, further decline means less tightening and rate hikes.
Focus this week is on U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data to gauge how much growth slowed towards the end of 2022, especially as the effects of sharp interest rate hikes and relatively higher inflation began to be felt.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, technical indicators show a possibility of a further decline toward 101.40.
Pivot Point: 101.60
January 24th Daily Analysis
The dollar was on the weaker side this morning, hovering near an eight-month low at 101.51, as traders continued to gauge the risks of a U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy.
Traders see two more quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, with two quarter-point cuts following before year-end. Meanwhile, the Fed itself has insisted 75 basis points of more tightening is likely on the way.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, technical indicators show a neutral trend and move in a horizontal fashion.
Pivot Point: 101.60
January 23th Daily Analysis
The euro inched up to $1.0870 near its nine-month peak of $1.0888, opening the opportunity for a new high. The Common currency was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after.
Technically, the pair is overbought, and it is showing a slowing momentum on the hourly chart. The technical indicators show a corrective range and signal a high chance of a decline toward 1.0830.
Pivot Point: 1.0900
January 20th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar traded horizontally this morning as fears of an economic slowdown dented risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.069% to 102.090, not far off the seven-month low of 101.51 it touched on Wednesday.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to another month of solid job growth and continued labor market tightness.
Investor focus will switch to the upcoming Fed meeting at the start of next month. The central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points in December after four straight 75 basis point hikes and the market is eagerly anticipating another step-down.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, technical indicators show a neutral trend and move in a horizontal fashion.
Pivot Point: 101.90
January 19th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as growing concerns about the U.S. economy drove demand for the safe-haven greenback.
Weak U.S. data released showed that U.S. retail sales fell by the most in a year in December and manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years, stoking fears that the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.10
January 17th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar index bounced from a seven-month low of 101.77 made a day ago and traded this morning above 102.00. However, the bets on Fed’s policy change remain to pressure the greenback and treasury yields.
Investors are eying the Empire State Manufacturing Index for more insight into the upcoming economic cycle stage.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.10
January 16th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar stabilized in early European trade, trading just above a seven-month low on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes.
Declining inflation has led to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle and that rates will not go as high as previously expected.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.10
January 13th Daily Analysis
The dollar wobbled during the early trades as cooling U.S. inflation raised hopes of the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of interest rate hikes. The dollar index gained 0.117% at 102.280, having slipped to its lowest level since June earlier in the session.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve members expressed their ease on lessening inflation after U.S. CPI surprisingly fell for the first time in more than 30 months in December.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.85
January 12th Daily Analysis
The dollar index and dollar Fed members stated were down nearly 0.8% this week in anticipation of the inflation data. The greenback has been on a sharp decline since late 2022, amid an increasing number of bets that U.S. inflation has peaked, and that the Fed will raise rates at a slower pace in the coming months.
Markets were mildly positive but were sitting on gains for the week in anticipation of data that is expected to show that U.S. consumer inflation retreated further in December.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.85
January 11th Daily Analysis
The dollar index was almost flat this morning as the focus is now on the release of CPI data for December. Market participants expect to see inflation easing from the previous month.
The greenback was boosted by comments from Fed members restating that interest rates could rise more than expected this year, especially if inflation runs above the central bank’s target range for longer than expected.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.80
January 10th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar weakened as market participants expect that the Fed might end its rate-hike cycle. Meanwhile, China’s reopening drove demand for riskier assets. The U.S. dollar index edged 0.04% higher to 103.21, after tumbling 0.7% and touching a seven-month low of 102.93 in the previous session.
The dollar index trades under heavy selling pressure and remains committed to the downtrend that started in early November. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows robust selling pressure despite the overselling readings from RSI and MACD.
Pivot Point: 102.80
January 09th Daily Analysis
Chinese yuan hit a four-month high after the country reopened its international borders, while hopes of a less hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve also weighed on the dollar and supported regional units. The yuan jumped 0.7% to 6.7912 against the dollar to record its strongest level since late August.
The pair trades in a downtrend on both the hourly and daily chart while the moving average indicates a continuation of the downtrend. Technical indicators signal an increased selling pressure.
Pivot Point: 6.7850
January 06th Daily Analysis
December’s flash inflation figures for the eurozone are due today where expectations are for an annual inflation rate of 9.7%. Data from Germany, France, and Spain have already shown a slowdown in inflation last month, suggesting that eurozone inflation could come in below expectations.
Meanwhile, the euro tumbled 0.8% to a more than three-week low at $1.0515 in the previous session and was last steady at $1.0519.
On the daily chart the pair is showing a reversal pattern with a ceiling set at the resistance of 1.0700. the pattern is expected to head towards 1.0470 before any correction or bounce. However, the hourly chart shows further decline towards 1.0485 and a possible bottom at 1.0470.
Pivot Point: 1.0520
January 05th Daily Analysis
The dollar index showed a neutral reaction to the minutes released yesterday, as other readings showed that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in December.
Sentiment towards the dollar was dented in recent sessions by the possibility of a U.S. recession, as well as expectations of smaller near-term hikes in interest rates. Markets are positioning for a 25 basis point hike by the Fed in February.
Technically, the chart remains committed to the downtrend despite the horizontal fluctuations. 20 periods moving average is still above the current price level and signals further decline. RSI and MACD show an increase in volatility.
Pivot Point: 104.20
January 04th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar index futures traded slightly lower but remained on the gaining side while trading just below a two-week high.
Traders focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes. Markets expect the minutes to provide clues about future monetary policy. But given that U.S. inflation is still trending well above the Fed’s annual target range, the central bank is broadly expected to keep policy tight in the coming months.
Technically, the chart remains committed to the downtrend despite the horizontal fluctuations. 20 periods moving average is still above the current price level and signals further decline. RSI and MACD show an increase in volatility.
Pivot Point: 104.20
January 03rd Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar traded horizontally during the early trades as investors await Feds meeting minutes. Investors expect the upcoming minutes to provide clues about the expectations of the monetary policy for the new year.
The dollar index has made a quiet start to 2023 and traded up less than 0.1% at 103.710. The index rose 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015 on the back of the Fed raising interest rates to tackle inflation.
Technically, the chart remains committed to the downtrend despite the horizontal fluctuations. 20 periods moving average is still above the current price level and signals further decline. RSI and MACD show decreasing volatility and neutral pressure.
Pivot Point: 103.40
January 02nd Daily Analysis
The dollar index futures traded slowly this morning on account of the new year holidays across most of the world. Yet, the dollar weakened in recent months after data showed that U.S. inflation has likely peaked, which is expected to invite a slower pace of rate hikes by the Fed.
Technically, the dollar index remains downtrend, targeting 103.10 on the hourly chart. RSI and MACD signal a slow decline while Bollinger bands show a possibility of a rebound.
Pivot Point: 103.25
December 22th Daily Analysis
The dollar index and dollar index futures fell 0.3% each on Thursday, with the focus now turning to revised U.S. GDP data for the third quarter, and more importantly, the personal consumption expenditure price index reading for November.
The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and is expected to show that inflation eased further in November when it is released on Friday. Markets will be watching to see how close the reading comes to the Fed’s target range, given that the index is so far trending well above the 2% mark.
Meanwhile, the daily chart is also showing a declining pattern as RSI is at 40 and closing at 30 while the MACD shows more divergence and a tendency for further decline. However, the support at 103.60 is still holding due to a light buying force.
Pivot Point: 103.60
December 21th Daily Analysis
The dollar index was 0.154% higher at 104.110, having slipped 0.6% on Tuesday. The index is heading for its biggest quarterly loss in nearly 12 years.
Meanwhile, the daily chart is also showing a declining pattern as RSI is closing to 30 and the MACD shows more divergence. However, the support at 103.60 is still holding due to a light buying force.
Pivot Point: 103.60
December 20th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar index sank though, dropping 0.31% to 104.30, bringing it back to the middle of its trading range this month of 103.44-105.90. The greenback traded steady this week after recovering sharply from a five-month low hit earlier, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields firmed for a third consecutive session.
Meanwhile, the daily chart is also showing a declining pattern as RSI is closing to 30 and the MACD shows more divergence.
Pivot Point: 104.00
December 19th Daily Analysis
The dollar index retreated this morning amid rising recessionary fears after the last Fed hike last week. Market participants believe inflation is peaking and the recession is one step away. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman mentioned that interest rates will remain higher for longer than anticipated.
On the hourly chart, the index shows a tendency for further decline below 104 as the 55 moving average intercepts with the lower band of 20 periods Bollinger bands. Technical indicators show an increase in selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the daily chart is also showing a declining pattern as RSI is closing to 30 and the MACD shows more divergence.
Pivot Point: 104.00
December 16th Daily Analysis
The greenback lost 0.12% to 104.00 during the morning trades as traders continued to recap the implications of the Fed’s continued monetary tightening.
The daily chart’s overall trend remains negative and targets the support at 103.00. However, the technical indicators show fluctuations with a heavy selling pressure build-up.
Pivot Point: 103.90
December 15th Daily Analysis
The dollar climbed considerably on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an expected 50 basis points overnight, and its policymakers anticipated making further hikes and keeping rates high for longer than earlier hoped.
Setting out the Federal Open Market Committee’s determination to tame inflation despite a risk of recession, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the FOMC expects rates to peak above 5%. Fed funds futures show that markets are expecting U.S. rates to peak just under 5% by May 2023 which is lower than what the Fed has conducted.
Pivot Point: 103.70
December 14th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar struggled during the morning trades after a sharp dive on lower inflation data which supported the expectations of a 50 basis points hike in the Fed’s meeting later in the day.
Fed officials mentioned several times that the Fed will slow down the pace in the upcoming meetings, on the other hand, Experts expect the Fed to hike 50 basis points after delivering 75 basis points in four consecutive meetings.
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.27% to 104.53, after slipping 0.3% overnight. The daily chart’s overall trend remains negative and targets the support at 104.40. However, the technical indicators show fluctuations with a heavier selling pressure build-up.
Pivot Point: 103.90
December 13th Daily Analysis
U.S. stock futures fell slightly during Monday’s evening trades after major benchmark averages bounced back from a negative week as investors prepare for key inflation data set to be released later in Tuesday’s session.
Ahead in Tuesday’s session, market participants will be closely following November’s consumer price index report amid slowing inflation and economic activity ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
During Monday’s regular trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.6% to 34,005, the S&P 500 gained 1.4% to 3,990.6, and the NASDAQ Composite raised 1.3% to 11,143.7.
Pivot Point: 4,000
December 12th Daily Analysis
The Euro remains solid despite the early decline this morning as the ECB is scheduled to meet this week and deliver a 50-basis points hike. Additionally, the common currency is gaining some steam due to the increase of selling pressure on the greenback.
The pair remains positive and trading at the resistance level of 1.0550 which is not holding up due to the heavy buying pressure. The pair is heading towards 1.0590 but it is expected to find fluctuations on the way. Technical indicators show the hourly chart to be speculative.
The daily chart shows a continuation of the uptrend if the pair broke above 1.0550 and 1.0580. However, the technical indicators provide indecisive readings.
Pivot Point: 1.0540
December 09th Daily Analysis
The dollar eased on Friday as worries over a slowdown in the United States mounted, with traders on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week, where the Federal Reserve takes the main stage.
Yields on U.S. Treasuries have also slumped, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects interest rate expectations, last at 4.3035%, away from its 15-year high of nearly 4.9% hit last month. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was inverted at -83.7 bps.
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.27% to 104.53, after slipping 0.3% overnight. On the daily chart, the overall trend remains negative and targets the support at 104.40. However, the technical indicators show fluctuations with a heavier selling pressure build-up.
Pivot Point: 104.40
December 08th Daily Analysis
U.S. stock futures were down slightly on Thursday morning following a fifth straight day of losses for the S&P 500 as Wall Street weighed the likelihood of a recession.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 0.06%. S&P 500 futures lost 0.11%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.18% lower. However, during yesterday’s regular session, the S&P 500 declined 0.19% in its fifth straight losing session, while the Dow was nearly flat.
The hourly chart shows a continuation to the downtrend while technical indicators readings are indecisive. However, the daily chart shows a possible decline towards 3,800.
Pivot Point: 3,950
December 07th Daily Analysis
Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to close at 33,596.34, the S&P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 1.44%, to finish at 3,941.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.05 points, or 2%, to end on 11,014.89.
The hourly chart shows a continuation to the downtrend while technical indicators readings are indecisive. However, the daily chart shows a possible decline towards 3,800.
Pivot Point: 3,950
December 06th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar held firm this morning, following its biggest rally in two weeks amid the solid services data in the United States. However, the U.S. dollar index switched hands at 105.11 in the early Asian session, easing 0.1% after Monday’s 0.7% rally. It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening.
Yet, the index reversed course as the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose, indicating the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, remained resilient.
On the hourly chart, the index broke below the critical support at 105.25 which led the chart to 104. However, the index does not have major support above 103.40 and 102.60. On the other hand, the daily chart shows a high probability to trade between 103.40 and 102.60.
Technical indicators show a speculative trend around the current levels while confirming the daily chart decline.
Pivot Point: 105.10
December 05th Daily Analysis
The dollar index was down 0.18% at 104.28 to record its lowest since June 28. The Fed is expected to increase policy rates by an additional 50 basis points at the meeting. The index fell 1.4% last week ending its worst month since 2010, due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve reduce the pace of its interest rate hikes.
On the hourly chart, the index broke below the critical support at 105.25 which led the chart to 104. However, the index does not have major support above 103.40 and 102.60. On the other hand, the daily chart shows a high probability to trade between 103.40 and 102.60.
Technical indicators show a speculative trend around the current levels while it confirms the decline on the daily chart.
Pivot Point: 104.35
November 30th Daily Analysis
The dollar stabilizes above 106.00 levels, awaiting the words and hints of the Federal Reserve Chairman today evening at 8:30 pm platform time. As head of the Fed, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
The dollar continued to decline against a number of other currencies yesterday, Tuesday, November 29, and lost some of the gains recorded at the end of the previous session, amid growing concerns due to the restrictions to stop the spread of the Corona virus in China.
The dollar index, fell 0.4% to 106.19.
And the US currency retained marginal support from statements referring to the hawkish policy that came from the words of the Federal Reserve officials on Monday.
Pivot point: 106.50
November 29th Daily Analysis
The dollar has fallen since its biggest two-day sell-off on November 10-11, when consumer inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below estimates of 8%.
Last week, the dollar fell further, completing a bearish pattern, after the Fed’s meeting minutes revealed a growing consensus to smooth its hawkish path to hike rates.
But technically, the readings are still conflicting even on the intersections of the moving averages (a positive unstable intersection tending to return to the bottom again), and awaiting more data during this week for the dollar to take clear directions.
Pivot point: 106.15
November 28th Daily Analysis
The dollar rose broadly on Monday as protests over COVID-19 restrictions in China fueled uncertainty and weighed on sentiment, sending the yuan lower. As a result, the jittery investors turned to the safe-haven dollar.
The dollar index fell against a basket of currencies 0.08 percent to 106.25, but without falling to its lowest level in three months at 105.30.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the outlook for the US economy and labor market at an event at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, which is likely to give more clues to the outlook for US monetary policy.
Pivot point: 105.95
November 25th Daily Analysis
The dollar continued to decline strongly – for the fourth day in a row – during today’s trading, reaching a very low point for the first time in months.
Today, Friday, November 25, the dollar fell by more than 0.17%, after declining 1.02% yesterday.
Technically, the dollar index is still weak and is expected to decline further if it remains below 105.75 levels.
Pivot point: 105.75
November 24th Daily Analysis
The US dollar index fell by 0.9% since the majority of the Fed’s members in the November meeting believed that a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes will likely remain appropriate.
Fed members also noted that the labor market remains strong, but many noted initial signs that it may be slowly moving towards a better balance between supply and demand.
Technically, the US dollar is expected to decline with the continuation of the negative technical signs related to it, despite the expected correction due to its hold on and its attempt to test the support levels at 105.55.
Pivot point: 106.35
November 23th Daily Analysis
Investors are looking forward to getting more clues about the future direction of the Fed’s interest rates from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for release today, Wednesday, November 23.
Technically, after several attempts to stabilize above its important resistance at 107.10, the dollar index was unable to stabilize and returned to decline again, and we see negative readings on most of the technical indicators, including trend and momentum indicators.
Pivot point: 107.20
November 22th Daily Analysis
News of increasing cases of coronavirus in China made the US dollar stronger, so it rose high against major currencies yesterday, Monday, November 21. On the other hand, the Chinese yuan fell, as sentiment deteriorated due to the rise in coronavirus infections and the tightening of restrictions in some cities in the second largest economy in the world.
The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against 6 major currencies, rose 0.412% to 107.330 on Monday, its highest level since November 11.
Technically, the US dollar continues to improve gradually, in an attempt to hold above the resistance levels at $107.35.
Pivot point: 107.45
November 21th Daily Analysis
On Friday, November 18, the dollar headed towards its best week in a month, as statements by Federal Reserve officials and stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data curbed the US currency’s decline after signs of declining in the inflation rate.
Technically, the US dollar started to improve relatively, in an attempt to hold above the resistance levels at $107.10.
Pivot point: 106.65
November 18th Daily Analysis
The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.60 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving average readings and shows the possibility of a further decline towards 105.20.
The dollar rose yesterday, Thursday, November 17, with the increase in US Treasury yields, at a time when investors are betting on the US Federal Reserve to tighten its policy relatively, before returning today below its important resistance levels at 106.60.
Pivot point: 106.55
November 17th Daily Analysis
Retail Sales in the US rose faster than analysts expected in October, as consumers continued to spend despite rising inflation.
Investors are pinning hopes that the data will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate increases aimed at curbing inflation.
The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.60 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving averages’ readings and shows the possibility of further decline towards 105.15.
Pivot point: 106.15
November 16th Daily Analysis
After several tests of the important resistance levels near $107, the US dollar index – which measures the price of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies – is still declining and trying to consolidate, awaiting more economic data.
The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.70 and indicates a possible continuation of the decline. In the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the moving averages’ readings and shows the possibility of further decline towards 105.15.
Pivot Point: 106.15
November 15th Daily Analysis
The US dollar is trying to stabilize above 106.50 levels after increasing expectations of a significant decline in the US inflation rate next year 2023.
The dollar index continues to decline to its important resistance levels at 106.70 and indicates the that the decline might possibly continue. On the hourly chart, the technical indicators are showing signs of a bullish swing from the current levels, but the moving averages are indicating the opposite. In the meantime, the daily chart confirms the readings of the moving averages and shows the possibility of a further decline towards 105.15.
Pivot Point: 106.70
November 14th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar held firm on Monday following last week’s bruising dive as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the central bank was not softening its fight against inflation.
A slightly cooler-than-anticipated inflation data on Thursday sent the greenback on a tailspin, with the dollar index sliding 3.6% over two sessions last week, its biggest two-day percentage loss since March 2009. The dollar index fell 0.094% at 106.610, not far off Friday’s low of 106.27.
The dollar index declines hit a critical level at 106.70 and signal a possible continuation of the decline. On the hourly chart, technical indicators show signals of a swing higher from the current levels but moving averages indicate the opposite.
Meanwhile, the daily chart confirms the readings of the moving averages and shows a possibility of further decline towards 105.15.
Pivot Point: 106.70
November 11th Daily Analysis
The dollar index and dollar index futures lost 0.2% each while languishing at a two-month low after data showed U.S. CPI inflation grew 7.7% in October, its slowest pace in nine months.
The reading gives the Federal Reserve impetus to hike interest rates by a smaller hike of 50 basis points in December. Markets are also positioning for such a move, with traders pricing an 80% chance of the Fed hiking rates at a slower clip. A group of Fed members also said this week that they support such a move to avoid damaging the economy.
The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.40. However, breaking the resistance at 109.20 led to a drop toward 107.50. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.
Pivot Point: 107.70
November 10th Daily Analysis
The U.S. dollar remains weak, although it edged higher during the Asian session. The Greenback stabilizing ahead of the key inflation data later today. Crucial U.S. consumer inflation data is expected to show the annual CPI figure falling to 8.0% in October from 8.2% the prior month, while the core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen dropping to an annual 6.5%, from 6.6%.
The dollar has been under downward pressure of late from expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease back from its aggressive hiking cycle shortly, potentially as early as December.
The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.90 reaching 109.40. However, breaking the resistance between 109.40 and 109.20 will most likely lead to a drop toward 107.50 on the daily chart. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.
Pivot Point: 110.35
November 09th Daily Analysis
The dollar declined during the morning sessions, as traders await the results of the U.S. midterm elections. In addition, the inflation data could disappoint hopes for a slowdown in rate hikes.
The greenback has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and China reopening and driving growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is down about 0.9% so far this week and hovered at 109.73 during the Asian trades.
The dollar index broke below the support and neckline at 109.90 reaching 109.40. However, breaking the resistance between 109.40 and 109.20 will most likely lead to a drop towards 107.50 on the daily chart. Technical indicators also show selling pressure while MACD specifically is showing convergence and further decline.
Pivot Point: 109.55
November 08th Daily Analysis
The dollar wobbled Monday, but that hasn’t squeezed the life out of bets for the greenback to reign supreme in the coming weeks with the midterms and fresh inflation data on the horizon.
The hourly chart shows resistance at 111.08 and also shows the index heading towards 110.70. Meanwhile, technical indicators show slight divergence and the possibility of rebounding if the index gained momentum before breaking 110.30.
Pivot Point: 111.10