XAU/USD市场分析:在债务上限问题解决的背景下现底部形态
XAU/USD Market Review: A Bottoming Formation Amid a Resolved Debt Ceiling
XAU/USD市场分析:在债务上限问题解决的背景下现底部形态
XAU/USD Market Review: A Bottoming Formation Amid a Resolved Debt Ceiling
在XAU/USD这对货币中,我们注意到金价在1940的位置附近正在形成底部。从技术角度来看,金价近期在水平支持线的附近展现出支持,这个支持线源自于3月15日的最高价$1,937.39。尽管如此,当前的20周期指数移动平均线(EMA)依然在$1,952.38的位置上,阻碍了金价上涨的努力。然而,相对强弱指数(RSI)似乎正在从熊市区间(20.00-40.00)向中性区间(40.00-60.00)上落,这表明熊市动能可能正在减弱。
从基本面来看,最近美国债务上限問題已经给美元指数(DXY)带来負面影響,为通常被视为避险资产的黄金创造了有利条件。美国债务上限的提升可能会导致信用评级机构降低对美国长期信誉的评级,这可能会进一步推高金价。但值得注意的是,由于美国的消费者支出持续增加,引发了通胀压力,这可能会促使美联储继续其紧缩政策。在这周,美国的就业数据将会吸引投资者的注意,因为这将为6月份的货币政策会议提供基础。
总的来说,技术和基本面因素均暗示金价可能在1940的位置附近形成底部。未来,美国的经济发展和货币政策决策的相互作用,将可能成为影响XAU/USD走势的关键因素。
In the XAU/USD pair, we’re observing a potential bottoming out around the 1940 level. On the technical front, gold has been demonstrating resilience near the horizontal support zone, which stems from the March 15 high of $1,937.39. Despite this, the 20-period EMA, currently at $1,952.38, continues to thwart the efforts of gold bulls to initiate a recovery. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be transitioning from a bearish range (20.00-40.00) to a neutral range (40.00-60.00), suggesting a possible slowdown in bearish momentum1.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent resolution of the US debt ceiling has exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY), creating a favorable environment for gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. The increase in the US debt ceiling, however, may lead to a downgrade in the country’s long-term credibility by credit rating agencies, potentially supporting gold prices further. It’s also important to note that the anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, driven by persistent US inflation, could add a layer of complexity to the gold price dynamics. Investors will likely pay close attention to the upcoming US employment data, which may shape expectations for the Fed’s policy direction in June1.
In conclusion, the technical and fundamental factors suggest a possible bottoming formation for gold around the 1940 area. The interplay between US economic developments and monetary policy decisions will likely be key factors influencing the XAU/USD pair in the coming period.