美元/日元:在鹰派联储立场和稳定的日本银行政策背景下,应对通道阻力
USD/JPY: Navigating Channel Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed Tone and Steady BoJ Policy

美元/日元:在鹰派联储立场和稳定的日本银行政策背景下,应对通道阻力
USD/JPY: Navigating Channel Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed Tone and Steady BoJ Policy

美元/日元货币对目前正在重新测试上行通道趋势线的阻力位,其100日移动平均线上穿200日移动平均线,呈现多头信号。如果成功突破这一阻力位,可能为目标145.20铺路。从基本面来看,美联储的鹰派立场通过联储理事Christopher Waller和里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin的言论表明,由于核心通胀持续,可能需要进一步的货币紧缩。此外,国债收益率在美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后美元近期下跌之后保持相对稳定,两年期和十年期收益率分别小幅上升,为美元缓解了轻微的下行压力。与此同时,日本银行(BoJ)通过保持利率不变并继续其收益率曲线控制政策来维持现状。日本银行政策的任何变化都将是出人意料的,并可能产生重大影响,但就目前而言,他们预测未来几个月通货膨胀将放缓,这意味着加息可能不会立即发生。

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently retesting the resistance level of an upper channel trendline, supported by a bullish signal as its 100-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. A break above this resistance could pave the way for targeting 145.20. On the fundamental front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as indicated by remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, suggests that additional monetary tightening may be on the cards due to persistent core inflation. Additionally, Treasury yields remained relatively stable with marginal increases in the two-year and ten-year yields, offering slight relief to the US dollar after its recent decline following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the status quo by keeping rates unchanged and continuing its yield curve control policy. Any alteration to the BoJ’s policy would be unexpected and likely to have a significant impact, but for now, their prediction of subdued inflation in the coming months implies that changes are not imminent.

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