January 04th Daily Analysis

January 04th Daily Analysis


The U.S. dollar index futures traded slightly lower but remained on the gaining side while trading just below a two-week high.

Traders focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes. Markets expect the minutes to provide clues about future monetary policy. But given that U.S. inflation is still trending well above the Fed’s annual target range, the central bank is broadly expected to keep policy tight in the coming months.

Technically, the chart remains committed to the downtrend despite the horizontal fluctuations. 20 periods moving average is still above the current price level and signals further decline. RSI and MACD show an increase in volatility.

Pivot Point: 104.20


The euro traded around steady levels this morning against the greenback as headline German CPI fell to an annual 8.6% in December, from 10% the previous month.

The euro had lost 1% to record its sharpest drop in more than two months, following the larger-than-expected drop in German inflation, but it edged up from three-week lows to $1.0566 during the Asian session.

The fiber remains trading under heavy selling pressure on the daily chart while showing a slight tendency to further decline. The pair failed to penetrate the resistance at 1.0700 and started falling from there, however, the hourly chart shows potential for speculative gains due to the increasing volatility.

Pivot Point: 1.0575


Gold prices hovered around six-month highs on Wednesday, cutting a recent rally as traders bought back into the dollar. The yellow metal had a strong start to the new year as concerns over a looming recession and a potential slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes led to increased demand for safe havens apart from the dollar.

Additionally, the warning on a potential recession in 2023 from the International Monetary Fund encouraged some buying into gold, given that the possibility of a U.S. recession dents the dollar’s appeal. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,838.66 an ounce, while gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,844.65 an ounce.

Spot gold daily chart shows a continuation of the uptrend while the hourly chart shows fluctuations between 1,840 and 1,850. On the hourly chart, RSI shows overbuying and signals a possibility of a decline to relieve the buying pressure, meanwhile, the MACD intersects with the moving average and signals a divergence and a slight decline.

Pivot Point: 1,850


Oil prices declined during the early trades confirming the weak start to 2023 amid increased fears of a looming recession.

Crude markets were hit in their first trading session for the year as the International Monetary Fund warned of a potential global recession in 2023, while uncertainty over rising COVID-19 cases in China also cast doubts over a recovery in oil demand.

Meanwhile, Brent oil futures traded around $82.31 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures dropped to $76.40 a barrel. Both contracts plummeted by over 4% each during the previous session.

Pivot Point: 76.50

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